5 Bold Predictions for San Francisco 49ers' Week 9 Matchup with Rams
Making bold predictions for the San Francisco 49ers at the start of this 2014 NFL season required some pretty daring assertions.
That is, if one were leaning toward positive forecasts for the Red and Gold.
Despite nearly making the Super Bowl last year, a collection of major injuries and off-the-field drama enveloped the 49ers in a cloud of uncertainty.
There were even some reputable prognosticators that believed San Francisco wouldn't make the playoffs.
Two blown leads in consecutive games following a Week 1 win over the Dallas Cowboys compounded the already-pervasive doubts regarding the postseason viability of this club.
But then San Francisco’s beleaguered defense shut out the Philadelphia Eagles’ No. 2 scoring attack and the 49ers won three straight. A handful of analysts made a compelling case that they would pull off the upset in Week 7 against the Peyton Manning-led Denver Broncos.
Alas, Manning set the all-time mark for career touchdown passes in a 42-17 domination in which many Broncos starters sat in the fourth quarter.
So, sitting at 4-3 and coming off their bye week, what qualifies as bold for the 49ers just days before their second matchup with the St. Louis Rams?
Here’s a hint: offensive identity realized, defensive potential achieved and more than one aberration on special teams.
Or how about this: running backs, touchdowns, sacks and kickers getting a day off.
And with that, here are five bold predictions for the 49ers’ Week 9 matchup with the Rams at Levi’s Stadium.
5. One Rushing Touchdown—From 3 Different Players
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True or false: The 49ers have a game high of one rushing touchdown in 2014.
Fact or fiction: The 49ers haven’t scored a rushing touchdown since Week 3.
Dogma or heresy: The 49ers have notched just three scores on the ground this season.
For those who answered in the former for all three, you have indeed counted the total number of rushing touchdowns the 49ers have scored through seven games.
Rookie Carlos Hyde exploded his way into end-zone paydirt twice in the first three weeks, while Frank Gore tallied his lone score in Week 2.
But San Francisco’s backfield tandem has been held scoreless for the last four games. And Colin Kaepernick hasn’t crossed the goal line since the 2013 playoffs.
The same 49ers whose fundamental identity lies in the power run game ranks just 10th overall in rushing offense this year. Only one team has scored fewer times via the ground attack—and it's the winless one across the bay.
Remember that this Jim Harbaugh-led club hasn’t ranked lower than eighth or recorded fewer than 14 rushing touchdowns since the fiery head coach took over in 2011. San Francisco rated fourth overall with 18 scores just last season.
So, in the spirit of bold predictions, the 49ers will match their 2014 total in Week 9 alone. Gore and Hyde will each notch one touchdown, while Kaepernick will register his first of the year.
All three will eclipse their individual game bests, with the Niners as a team setting a new season high of 240 yards rushing.
Sure, the Rams have allowed the second-most touchdowns (eight) and gains of 40-plus yards (three), the most of more than 20 yards (10) and rank 31st in total rushing defense.
Yet that same unit held the 49ers to zero scores and their third-lowest aggregate of 89 yards on the ground back in Week 6. That is why what would otherwise qualify as par for the course actually merits a bold descriptor for this Niners offense.
Harbaugh and offensive coordinator Greg Roman will orchestrate this approach and help the 49ers return to their roots.
The Gore-Hyde-Kaepernick trio, meanwhile, will execute on the gridiron.
4. One Penalty, Zero Turnovers—For the Game
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Lower digits are better than higher ones when comparing number of penalties and turnovers with Niners wins this year.
Holding a positive standing in the latter is especially critical.
Jarringly obvious football truism notwithstanding, it still serves as an important indicator for the Red and Gold in 2014.
The 49ers won in Weeks 1, 4, 5 and 6. They committed double-digit penalties in the season opener and in Week 4, but also coughed up the ball just once while recording a plus-seven turnover differential.
They completed their three-game winning streak by tallying all of seven total penalties and two turnovers against the Kansas City Chiefs and St. Louis Rams combined.
Then San Francisco traveled to the Denver Broncos' home turf, and Manning set the all-time mark for career touchdown passes.
Getting hit with only six flags and one turnover had no bearing on that loss. There was just no way the Niners were winning in Week 7.
But by and large, this team rides the victory train when it retains possession and limits mental mistakes.
Now, is it possible that Harbaugh’s club will register near perfection with one lone penalty and nary a turnover against the Rams in Week 9?
Believe it.
The first matchup between these teams yielded five and one, respectively, for the 49ers in those two categories. Reducing those numbers to one and zero wouldn’t necessarily appear as that great a leap.
It will, however, when one remembers the disastrous Levi’s Stadium debut when San Francisco was responsible for 16 infractions and four lost offensive possessions.
Let’s just hope the Week 8 bye helped—and didn’t hurt—and the 49ers maintain discipline when they return to friendly confines on Nov. 2.
3. Season-High in Sacks, Season-Low in Sacks
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Wait, what? Allow us to explain.
A rather inglorious dichotomy has troubled San Francisco in 2014. It’s also in a place one wouldn’t normally expect from this Harbaugh-led team.
The 49ers have registered a negative sack differential in five of seven games this year. That is, games in which the offense allowed more sacks than the defense produced.
They logged a minus-one against the Cardinals, a minus-three in three different weeks and a minus-four in the matchup with Denver. Four games have yielded one defensive sack or fewer, while another three have been marked by at least four sacks given up.
Of course, the worst stain of all came most recently when the 49ers sacked Manning just once (he simply fell down on the other one), with Kaepernick going down six times.
Succinctly, the 49ers have been dominated in the trenches throughout this season.
They rank 23rd in sacks produced and 21st with 19 sacks given up. Pro Football Focus (subscription required) has the Niners at 22nd in pass blocking and 23rd as pass-rushers. That clearly reveals a bottom-half ranking in both categories.
Replace sacks with total quarterback pressures and the 49ers have maintained a positive standing in just two games. They have also coughed up double-digit pressures for six straight games, including a negative differential of minus-25 against the Broncos.
Aldon Smith’s absence and instability along the offensive line have severely limited their success up front on both sides of the ball.
Aside from underperforming left tackle Joe Staley, every member of Kaepernick’s protection group has or will miss significant action. They haven’t operated as a cohesive whole all year long.
Moving forward to Week 9, the 49ers will discontinue their underachievement along the front lines.
They’ll first compile a season-best six quarterback takedowns. Team sack leaders Justin Smith and Ahmad Brooks will lead the way.
Austin Davis will crumble with rookie Greg Robinson at left tackle and former Niners backup Mike Person at left guard now that his top blindside protector, Jake Long, is out (torn ACL), according to Darin Gantt of Pro Football Talk.
San Francisco’s first-year phenom Aaron Lynch and his second-leading 15 pressures will also gather two sacks on the afternoon.
As for the other side, recall that the 49ers have surrendered 37 pressures and six sacks in their past two games, including a combined six allowed by Staley in Week 7.
Even though Kaepernick never officially went down against the Rams, he was still either hit or hurried 12 different times. And that Aaron Donald-powered defensive front has totaled five times as many sacks over the previous five games.
All-Pro sack artist Robert Quinn has three takedowns in that span as well.
Fortunately for San Francisco, Kap will stay upright and experience just single-digit pressures in these NFC West rivals’ latest battle.
Staley, Anthony Davis and rookie center Marcus Martin will help anchor the line.
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2. Zero Points Allowed—of Any Kind
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We’ll start by addressing the nay-saying masses.
The 49ers shut out the then-No. 2 scoring offense in their Week 4 win over Philadelphia. The Eagles’ 21 points came via a blocked punt, pick-six and punt return.
In other words, Nick Foles and his high-flying gang did not lead a single scoring drive against the Niners defense.
St. Louis, meanwhile, produced all of two field goals in the season opener and only one touchdown just last week. Plus, that lone score against the Chiefs came on the Rams’ very first series. Kansas City otherwise shut down Austin Davis and co. for the remaining 56:56 of the game.
All that said, the Rams have also averaged 29 points in three other occasions.
They racked up 31 points on the first-place Cowboys and 28 against the Seattle Seahawks’ vaunted Legion of Boom in Week 7.
And lest we forget, St. Louis posted 14 points on the Niners—in the first quarter alone.
Shutouts in the NFL are a rare phenomenon. The fact that there have been three in 2014 represents a striking aberration in the context of league history. There are simply too many variables at work for any team to register zero points (turnovers, flags, injuries, trick plays, complex matchups, unforeseen contributors, etc.).
Remember also that the 49ers are dinged-up in the secondary and are still without their best pass-rusher and best overall defender, respectively, in Smith and NaVorro Bowman.
So when the 49ers make good on this prediction in Week 9, the word “bold” won’t even begin to capture the stunning feat.
1. Zero Field Goal Attempts + One Return to the House = Whole Lot of Points
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Who would’ve thought the numbers zero and one could actually represent so much positivity?
Harbaugh assumed the 49ers' head-coaching reins in 2011 and brought Brad Seely along with him as the special teams coach.
During this four-year period, their kickers have attempted at least one field goal in all but two of their 55 total games in the regular season.
David Akers attempted—and converted at least one—in 32 consecutive games with San Francisco.
Phil Dawson has nearly held serve, teeing off in every one of his 23 outings save for Weeks 3 and 8 in 2013.
That numbers to 15 straight contests up to this point.
In a similar yet contrasting vein, the 49ers haven’t logged a kick- or punt-return touchdown in all but one of these 55 games. Not since Ted Ginn notched two against the Seahawks in game one of Harbaugh and Seely’s tenure have the Niners experienced such special teams paydirt.
The two closest occasions were when Kyle Williams ran a kick back 94 yards in 2012 and LaMichael James recorded a 40-yard punt return last season.
But still, one must retreat 54 games in 49ers history to recall a return touchdown.
To all those Niners faithful, your patience has paid off—both streaks ends here.
Dawson will not attempt a single field goal on Sunday when the Rams travel to Levi’s Stadium. He’ll be strictly relegated to extra-point duties.
The 49ers offense will contribute four touchdowns toward the team’s 35 total points. Rookie Bruce Ellington, for his part, will generate the other six points.
The first-year offensive weapon will give the Rams a taste of their own medicine. Seely’s call for a misdirection return will propel Ellington for a 60-plus-yard scamper to touchdown glory.
A special teams score without a field goal en route to a season best in points and season low in points allowed? We reckon the fans of the San Francisco sports scene will be in a fairly good mood when the 49ers honor the Giants’ World Series crown with a 35-0 shutout in Week 9.
All team and player statistics courtesy of Pro-Football-Reference, ESPN and NFL.com. Advanced metrics provided by Pro Football Focus (subscription required).
Joe Levitt is a Featured Columnist for Bleacher Report, waxing academic, colloquial and statistical eloquence on the San Francisco 49ers. Follow him on Twitter @jlevitt16
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