Philadelphia Eagles vs. Houston Texans: Complete Week 9 Preview for Houston

With a Week 9 win over Philadelphia Eagles the Houston Texans' chances of making the playoffs will suddenly look pretty good. With a loss to the Eagles, the Texans would need to finish 5-2 down the stretch just to reach 9-7 for the year, which might be good enough to make the playoffs.

However, going 5-2 is unlikely.

Sure they should get three wins in their remaining games against the Tennessee Titans and Jacksonville Jaguars, but there aren't any easy games on the schedule aside from those. Heck even their road game at Cleveland coming out of the bye week no longer looks like a layup.

For a Texans team that seems to walk from week to week a very fine line between being pretty good and looking like a train wreck, it's only fitting that its playoff chances might hinge on the outcome of this one midseason game.

With possible arguments from the Dallas Cowboys and Indianapolis Colts, the Eagles may be the best offensive team the Texans have faced all season. Philadelphia is not unstoppable—the Eagles often stop themselves with turnovers—but its offense can be very explosive when it's clicking.

Not surprisingly, against those the Cowboys and Colts, the Texans gave up their two biggest yardage totals (456 each) on the year. The Texans defense can not give up another 450-plus yard day and expect the Houston offense led by Ryan Fitzpatrick to keep pace.

The scenario for the Texans to pull off the minor upset—the Eagles are a one-point favorite, according to Odds Shark—is pretty much the same as it is every week. They'll need to win the turnover battle, control the clock with a big game from Arian Foster and have J.J. Watt cause all sorts of havoc for the opposing offense.

Simple enough in theory but difficult to pull off perfectly. After all, the Texans have lost four games this season.

Houston Texans Week 8 Recap

Wade Payne/Associated Press

A familiar formula emerged as the Houston Texans defeated their division rivals from Tennessee last week by 16 points: run the ball well, play solid defense and don't turn the ball over.

If they can pull it off like they did last week, they won't lose many more games this season.

Arian Foster had another huge game with three total touchdowns and 155 rushing yards on 7.5 yards per carry against the Titans. His big game helped the Texans win the time of possession battle by nearly 11 minutes. 

"

Foster is special. Look at him hit the hole and get into the second level. #Texans https://t.co/eWZG89UHwg

— PDS (@PatDStat) October 29, 2014"

For the season Foster has now rushed for over 100 yards in six of the seven games he's started; the lone exception was against the Buffalo Bills, where he was probably still a little banged up after sitting out the week before against the New York Giants.

Considering what he has around him compared to the other top backs like DeMarco Murray, Matt Forte and Le'Veon Bell, you could argue that Foster is the best back in the league right now.

Foster ranks second in rushing yards—288 fewer yards than Murray—but has way less support at offensive line and quarterback. He's also been given 60 fewer carries and as a result actually has a higher per-carry average than Murray.

"

Foster to see this is great. Sees the initial cutback lane but bounces further. TD #Texans https://t.co/tlCRZQUSY6

— PDS (@PatDStat) October 29, 2014"

Kind of like the old Barry Sanders vs. Emmitt Smith argument, have the two players switch teams and see how well each produce. At the very least it seems hard to argue against Foster being the most valuable or most important running back in the league to his team.

The Texans other star player—J.J. Watt—also turned in another big effort to lead the way against Tennessee.

Watt stopped the run. 

"

Watt vs. Warmack again. 2 point conversion. No chance. #Texans https://t.co/XT4qG12s8L

— PDS (@PatDStat) October 29, 2014"

Watt hit the quarterback. 

"

J.J. Watt doing work. Mett has zero clue what's coming. #Texans https://t.co/O8lKxNAQUm

— PDS (@PatDStat) October 29, 2014"

Watt just made the Titans' offensive line look silly and overmatched. 

"

Warmack has zero clue on how to block Watt. #Texans https://t.co/1n4fGOeTSi

— PDS (@PatDStat) October 29, 2014"

No wonder why he was the consensus pick to win the NFL Defensive Player of the Year Award at the end of the season when NFL.com analysts recently announced their midseason predictions.

Linebackers Mike Mohamed and Akeem Dent also had solid games for the defense, which I guess proves that their 100 percent is better than whatever percent Brian Cushing had been playing at the last couple weeks.

Hope Cushing comes back soon, but there's no reason to rush him back before the bye week with how well the other linebackers have been playing.

On the negative side for the defense, they had a few busts in coverage against Tennessee like they seem to have every week. The Titans weren't able to burn them every time, but a better offense like the one the Eagles will bring to town could torch them if the same mistakes are made again this week. 

"

#Texans let the slot free down the middle of the field. Like no one sees him. #Texans https://t.co/1TrQWw5gtS

— PDS (@PatDStat) October 29, 2014 "

"

Kareem sees it but stops. Too many mental busts down by the goal line defensively. #Texans https://t.co/duIFHBiH0B

— PDS (@PatDStat) October 29, 2014"

Back over to the offense, Ryan Fitzpatrick didn't turn the ball over, which if you guaranteed me that without telling me before the game what the rest of his stat line will look like, I'd have bet on a Houston victory.

Just because he didn't turn the ball over, however, doesn't mean that he played particularly well. Fitzpatrick had what seemed like a dozen passes batted down or deflected at the line of scrimmage and also made several questionable decisions with where to go with the ball. 

"

Fitz stares this down the entire way. Dre literally boxed in by four defenders. #Texans https://t.co/M9K3TfAW7F

— PDS (@PatDStat) October 29, 2014 "

"

Fitz living dangerous. DB just misses the INT plus Hopkins drops the pass. https://t.co/PyFjWRRsab

— PDS (@PatDStat) October 29, 2014"

More damaging then these throws since they landed incomplete were a couple plays where Fitzpatrick showed surprisingly poor pocket awareness and took sacks where he could have easily thrown the ball away.

Worst of those plays was when he took a sack on 2nd-and-goal at the Titans' 2-yard line which lost nine yards and put Houston into an obvious passing situation on third down. That mistake likely cost the Texans four points.

The Texans can't afford those same mistakes this week if they have any chance of defeating the Eagles.

Thanks to @PatDStat of State of the Texans for his great Vine breakdowns each week.

News and Notes

Mark Zaleski/Associated Press

Jadeveon Clowney's Return to the Field

In what felt like the beginning of the season for the Texans' biggest offseason addition, Jadeveon Clowney didn't record a sack or tackle for loss, but he still showed a few flashes of the great potential he possesses. 

"

Clowney almost with his first sack. Uses his left arm to knock down Lewan's hand before getting on him. #Te... https://t.co/K0otAqCBPc

— PDS (@PatDStat) October 29, 2014 "

"

O'Brien thinks Clowney is ready for a little more work in a game. Still not 80 plays yet. #Texans

— Tania Ganguli (@taniaganguli) October 27, 2014"

Texans' coach Bill O'Brien liked what he saw from Clowney against Tennessee"

"

He got off on the ball well. He had good explosion off the ball. He had good assignments, he was good on his assignments. I think it’s going to be a work in progress as far as him getting back into shape. There’s a difference between running around the track on field one out there and having to play in a football game...

"

Eagles' quarterback Nick Foles has only been sacked seven times, so it might be hard to get to him, but I have a feeling that Clowney is close to having a breakout game.

Coach Bill O'Brien Wants More From the Tight Ends

As I've pointed out after each game this year, the Texans tight ends have had a very disappointing season. The group has a combined 16 catches for 152 yards, an average of two receptions for 19 yards for eight games for the whole trio.

A sad and disappointing stat line.

Coach O'Brien would like to change that during the second half of the season. 

"

O'Brien would like to get TEs, slot WR more involved in second half of season. #Texans #NFL #Eagles

— Brian T. Smith (@ChronBrianSmith) October 29, 2014"

They have to be capable of more don't they? You'd think the short to intermediate throws over the middle to the tight ends would be the easiest to complete and would be a kind of a safety valve for quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick.

Hasn't turned out that way so far.

Injury Report

Ronald Martinez/Getty Images

Jeff Tarpinian	Knee	Questionable
Brian Cushing	Knee	Questionable
Darryl Morris	Ankle	Questionable
Arian Foster	Knee	Probable
Andre Johnson	Ankle	Probable
Johnathan Joseph	Knee	Probable
Brooks Reed	Groin	Questionable
Alfred Blue	Ankle	Questionable
John Simon	Ankle	Questionable
Jadeveon Clowney	Knee	Questionable
Tim Jamison	Groin	Probable
Whitney Mercilus	Shoulder	Probable

Source: Pro Football Reference, as of Thursday evening, Oct. 30, 2014.

X-Factor and Matchups to Watch

Ross D. Franklin/Associated Press

Texans' Linebackers in Coverage against Darren Sproles

The Texans' linebackers have struggled over the years to cover running backs coming out of the backfield on pass patterns. No better example recently was the 43-yard catch-and-run from Le'Veon Bell that Brian Cushing allowed a couple weeks ago.

Bell finished that game with eight receptions for 88 yards and a touchdown.

Assuming Darren Sproles is healthy enough to make an impact—he's probable for this week's game in Houston—he's the best receiving back in the league in my opinion. In Week 2 Sproles torched the Indianapolis Colts with seven receptions for 152 yards.

Between 2009 and 2013 Sproles averaged 67 receptions and 599 receiving yards per year; he's a matchup nightmare for even defenses that have solid cover linebackers.

If Eagles head coach Chip Kelly is able to get Sproles matched up on Mike Mohamed, Akeem Dent or Justin Tuggle, the Texans could be in trouble.

Ryan Pickett and Stopping the Run

Last week the Texans were able to make the Titans one-dimensional by stopping the run.

If the Texans are able to stop the run and put the Eagles in obvious passing situations, then they can go all out after quarterback Nick Foles. And with guys like J.J. Watt and Jadeveon Clowney putting on the pressure, then sacks and turnovers could follow.

Stopping the run for the Texans begins and sometimes ends with veteran nose tackle Ryan Pickett. 

"

How good has Ryan Pickett been for the #Texans NT? 3 games w/o: 141.6 yards a game (5.3 a rush) 5 games w: 88.2 yards a game (3.4 a rush)

— PDS (@PatDStat) October 29, 2014"

As that stat indicates, Pickett has been an absolute beast since joining the Texans. Watch Pickett closely and you'll see a player who routinely takes on double-teams and doesn't give up an inch.

More traditional measurables like sacks or tackles don't tell the story with Pickett. What they don't show is that he's able to eat up blocks and create room for other players to come in and make plays.

The problem for the Texans in this game will be the spread looks, quick tempo and east-west running that the Eagles like to use—all of which have the potential to neutralize or take Pickett out of the game.

I'm not sure if the Eagles would alter their game plan for Pickett, but the formations and style of Philadelphia's offense will impact his playing time. If the Eagles' offensive tempo can wear out Pickett, then the Texans might be forced to go with nickel and dime sub-packages; the Texans' run defense in turn will suffer.

X-Factor of the Week: Kendrick Lewis

Playing sound deep coverage and keeping the Eagles' speedy receivers in front of them will be key for the Texans' defensive backs.

The Texans allowed two passes over 40 yards to the Titans in Week 8, gave up a pair of 30-plus yard receptions to the Steelers and Indianapolis' T.Y. Hilton killed them on multiple bombs, including a 33-yard touchdown pass and one 49-yard reception to set up another touchdown.

Point being, they Houston secondary has a tendency to allow big plays. The Eagles offense is arguably the most explosive unit Houston has faced so far, so safety Kendrick Lewis needs to have his best game as a member of the Texans.

Lewis has been solid this year, but he's also allowed opposing receivers to beat him over the top several times this year, including the 43-yard touchdown bomb from Tony Romo to Terrance Williams in the game against the Cowboys.

The Eagles test secondaries by running multiple fakes with play-action passes, fake screens to the receivers, reverse runs and all kinds of plays designed to fool a defender and get him out of position.

Lewis can't bite on play-fakes, he can't bite on double-moves and has to make sure that whenever his assignment is to play a deep zone that he's "deeper than the deepest."

If he does get fooled and blows his assignment, receivers like Philadelphia's Jeremy Maclin will run right by him and into the end zone.

Prediction

Mark Zaleski/Associated Press

Trying to match up with the Philadelphia Eagles offense will be a difficult task for the Houston Texans this week.

Slowing down the trio of Jeremy Maclin, Darren Sproles and Lesean McCoy is a challenge for any defense, but the Texans have had issues with allowing big plays to other explosive receivers—such as T.Y. Hilton and Antonio Brown—so expect the Eagles to test them deep early and often.

One area where the Texans could have a big advantage is in winning the turnover battle. Currently the Texans defense ranks second in the league in causing turnovers, while the Eagles have turned it over on offense more than any other team in the league.

Overall the Texans rank ninth in turnover differential at plus-four while the Eagles rank near the bottom (28th) at minus-seven.

With Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback, the Texans' room for error is razor thin. To defeat the Eagles this week, they'll have to win the turnover battle—probably plus two or better.

Last week against the Tennessee Titans, the trend of the Texans beating teams with bad quarterbacks and losing to teams with good quarterbacks continued. Nick Foles has had a down season in 2014 compared to last year, but he's still a good quarterback and certainly the better of the two in this matchup.

Prediction: Eagles 27, Texans 21