Predicting Every Major NBA Award Winner for the 2014-15 Season
It's too early to start thinking about the NBA's biggest awards, right? We should let the 2014-15 season breathe a bit before we start sizing up MVPs, ROYs, SMOYs and all the other "OYs" we can dream up...shouldn't we?
Nnnnnnaaaaah. The early portion of the season affords ample opportunity for rampant speculation. After all, there still hasn't been enough time for players to separate themselves beyond what preseason expectations might dictate.
Once that happens…well, making wild guesses won't be quite so fun—or as acceptable, for that matter.
So, before the reality of actual basketball completely disperses the fantasies dreamed up amidst the heat of another scorching summer, let's take a moment to set some expectations for the Association's seven most significant awards.
For Rookie of the Year, we'll try to pick the newbie who's best equipped to shine right away. For Most Improved, we'll consider which player will do the most to boost his individual stock by season's end. Our Sixth Man will (hopefully) be the most productive and impactful bench guy, just as our Defensive Player of the Year will be among defenders.
Typically, Coach and Executive of the Year are party to the league's biggest turnarounds, though dealing with adversity certainly factors in. As for Most Valuable, that definition tends to be the toughest to nail down, although being the best player in basketball certainly helps.
Rookie of the Year: Jabari Parker, Milwaukee Bucks
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The term "NBA-ready" has been ascribed to Jabari Parker for years now, dating back to his junior year of high school when he was named the Gatorade National Player of the Year. At long last, hoops heads will get to see if that label holds up.
Parker certainly looked the part during the preseason, with a pair of 18-point games and a 21-pointer to his credit. He'll have every opportunity to show off those scoring skills—perhaps as this rookie class' most prolific point producer—on a Milwaukee Bucks squad that, as Bleacher Report's Jonathan Wasserman pointed out, is desperate for a reliable offensive fulcrum:
"The Bucks finished No. 28 in points per game and No. 26 in offensive efficiency last season. It wouldn't be surprising if Parker averaged over 35 minutes as a rookie playing for Jason Kidd, who's going to need all the firepower he can get.
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To be sure, there's more to Parker than just his preternatural ability to put the ball in the basket. He's also a good passer with a solid handle, whose combination of bulk and leaping ability allows him to be a factor on the glass. If the Carmelo Anthony comparisons are indeed apt, Parker should wind up averaging right around 20 points per game in year one.
But even Anthony's prolific rookie campaign—he poured in 21 points per game while leading the Denver Nuggets to the playoffs—didn't earn him any awards. Then again, 'Melo had to contend with some dude named LeBron James. I wonder what he's up to nowadays…
Parker's competition for ROY shouldn't be quite so stiff. Andrew Wiggins figures to have a high-flying and productive campaign, though whatever success he enjoys could be drowned out by the dismal din of the post-Kevin Love Minnesota Timberwolves. The same goes for Nerlens Noel, who, like teammate and reigning Rookie of the Year Michael Carter-Williams, could put up inflated numbers for a terrible team.
As for Parker, he'll have a chance to be the face of a franchise-wide turnaround from last season's dismal 15-win finish.
Honorable Mentions: Andrew Wiggins, Nerlens Noel
Most Improved Player: Anthony Davis, New Orleans Pelicans
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Anthony Davis is already an All-Star with a 20-10 season under his belt. But if his opening-night performance (26 points, 17 rebounds, nine blocks, three steals, two assists vs. the Orlando Magic) was any indication, he's due for yet another impressive leap forward this season.
Even more so because, as SB Nation's Satchel Price noted, Davis can post astounding stats without the usual accompaniment of mistakes:
"One particular aspect of his game that deserves extra attention is his discipline. Young players who rack up blocks and fill such huge roles on offense tend to be mistake-prone, but Davis recorded just one personal foul and zero turnovers on Tuesday. Not only was he a completely dominant force on both ends, he did it without committing many errors.
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That sort of optimism stems in part from his role on an improving New Orleans Pelicans club. Now that the Pelicans have Omer Asik—who went for 14 points, 17 rebounds and five blocks of his own opposite Orlando—at center, Davis can slide to his more natural position at power forward.
The switch should allow Davis more leeway to put his perimeter skills to use on offense and freelance as a long-armed lawman on the defensive end. Moreover, Davis' build, while bulkier than it was last season, is still better suited to a spot that demands more mobility and less strength and physicality.
It should help, too, for Davis to have his top teammates back healthy. Eric Gordon and Ryan Anderson can space the floor with their shooting, while Tyreke Evans and fellow All-Star Jrue Holiday create easier opportunities off the bounce for Davis.
Truth be told, the lion's share of Davis' improvement will be his own doing. Davis is shy of his 22nd birthday, now in the midst of just his third season as a pro, and is still figuring out how great he can be. That confluence of factors trends toward eye-popping progress, especially for someone whose tools are as impressive as Davis'.
Honorable Mentions: Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Klay Thompson
Sixth Man of the Year: Taj Gibson, Chicago Bulls
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Taj Gibson came oh so close to earning honors as the NBA's best bench player last season. In the end, his 13 points, 6.8 rebounds, 1.4 blocks, superb two-way effort and key contributions in crunch time weren't quite enough to fend off Jamal Crawford, who became the first player in league history to be named Sixth Man of the Year with two different teams.
Crawford, though, could struggle to defend his territory against challengers this season. The Los Angeles Clippers super sub turns 35 in March and has already been dealing with discomfort in his leg.
Gibson, on the other hand, is healthy and appears poised to pounce on Crawford's throne if he is too frail to hold it. Gibson tipped off his sixth season by torching the New York Knicks' nicked-up frontcourt for a game-high 22 points (on 10-of-12 shooting) and eight rebounds in 28 minutes.
To be sure, Gibson won't always have it so easy. He put up those numbers against the likes of Samuel Dalembert, Amar'e Stoudemire, Jason Smith and Cole Aldrich. But the opportunities for the USC product to shine could be abundant nonetheless.
Bulls head coach Tom Thibodeau may have to go against his instincts by limiting minutes for his other bigs, with Joakim Noah still slowed somewhat from offseason knee surgery and Pau Gasol a clear injury risk at the age of 34.
That should mean more playing time for Taj, who will certainly be ready to perform whenever Thibs calls his number.
Honorable Mentions: Jamal Crawford, Tristan Thompson, Isaiah Thomas
Defensive Player of the Year: Roy Hibbert, Indiana Pacers
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Roy Hibbert needn't search high and low for a reason to believe he can be the NBA's Defensive Player of the Year.
For one, he can start with his performance last season for the Indiana Pacers. Hibbert was nigh on impenetrable in the paint, limiting opposing players to 41.1 percent shooting at the rim and finishing among the top four in both blocks per game and block percentage. All the while, Hibbert served as the anchor of the league's stingiest defense—even during his and the Pacers' combined second-half slide.
Of course, Hibbert had plenty of help in that regard. Paul George and Lance Stephenson were both pests on the perimeter, but neither is likely to be in a Pacers uniform this season—George is out with an injury, Stephenson left for Charlotte.
In a way, though, the Pacers' plight could work in Hibbert's favor, so long as he's able to keep Indy competitive. George's absence might actually be the sort of kick in the pants that Hibbert needs after last season's late debacle.
"When [Paul George] got hurt, I just knew that the stuff I was working on would come into effect even more," Hibbert told The Indianapolis Star's Candace Buckner. "I just said I've got to be even more efficient. Paul's not going to be there to grab those rebounds, so I just got to make sure I do my part and put extra effort out there."
There's certainly a precedent for centers in circumstances similar to Hibbert's coming away as DPOY. Just last season, Joakim Noah took home the honors after carrying a Derrick Rose-less Chicago Bulls squad to 48 wins with his all-court defensive dominance.
Hibbert would be hard-pressed to replicate Noah's brilliant campaign, but if the Georgetown product can help the Pacers hang around the Eastern Conference playoff picture with his basket-protecting prowess, he'll find himself in prime position to finish the job he started so well in 2013-14.
Honorable Mentions: Joakim Noah, Serge Ibaka
Coach of the Year: Gregg Popovich, San Antonio Spurs
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No one has ever been named Coach of the Year in back-to-back seasons. Neither has anyone ever taken home four Red Auerbach Trophies over the course of his career.
It seems unlikely, then, that Gregg Popovich would become the first. After all, how much better a job could he do this year than he did last season, when he led the San Antonio Spurs to an NBA-best 62 regular-season wins before the team rattled off 16 more for the franchise's fifth championship?
Then again, why wouldn't Pop be in the mix again? At this point, he is to his profession what Michael Jordan and LeBron James were and are to theirs: the best of the best and, thus, perennial favorites to take home hardware.
The spate of obstacles ahead of Pop could be uniquely challenging within the scope of his career—perhaps enough to distinguish what he does in 2014-15 from each of his previous 18 seasons in the Alamo City.
The titular triumvirate of Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili isn't getting any younger, with Duncan and Ginobili potentially eying retirement next summer. Also, Kawhi Leonard and Patty Mills are both on the shelf with injuries to start the season.
The Spurs as a whole will be up against it from start to finish. They'll be battling their own complacency and fatigue after consecutive trips to the Finals, the most recent of which yielded a Larry O'Brien Trophy. That means they will have to absorb every opponent's best shot, since the proverbial bull's-eye is so firmly affixed to its back.
To make matters more difficult, the Spurs will have to contend with a Western Conference that should be deeper and tougher than ever, with as many as 10 other teams sporting the horses to compete for postseason berths.
If Pop can guide his Spurs through all of that and come out the other side with, say, 60-plus wins and another No. 1 seed, he'll deserve serious consideration for COY honors, voter fatigue be damned.
Honorable Mentions: Rick Carlisle, David Blatt
Executive of the Year: David Griffin, Cleveland Cavaliers
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You could say that David Griffin would be accepting this award on behalf of LeBron James.
It was James' own desire, not Griffin's recruiting, that brought the best player in basketball back to Cleveland. Griffin can't even be credited with building the Cavs squad to which James returned, since he took over for Chris Grant on an interim basis just this past February.
James, too, seemed to lay the foundation for Kevin Love's arrival in Rock City. According to Yahoo Sports, James reached out to Love shortly after publishing his homecoming letter in Sports Illustrated—the very same letter from which Andrew Wiggins and Anthony Bennett (i.e. the key components of the Love trade that Griffin may or may not have wanted) were conspicuously omitted.
Before Griffin could officially pull the trigger on that blockbuster swap with the Minnesota Timberwolves, James went about playing the part of pied piper with former Miami Heat teammates Mike Miller and James Jones.
Even Shawn Marion made it clear that he was attracted by what Bron-Bron ultimately brought to the table.
"It was quick and simple," Marion said of James' pitch at Cavs' media day (via The News-Herald & Morning Journal's Bob Finnan). "There was no need to try to sell me on anything."
This isn't all to suggest that Griffin isn't or won't be a top-notch executive. By all accounts, his time spent with the Steve Nash-era Phoenix Suns and with the Cavs prior to Grant's dismissal has prepared him well for what lies ahead.
But, like the city of Cleveland as a whole, Griffin owes this particular turn of fortune far more to LeBron's meticulous machinations than to his own.
Honorable Mentions: Gar Forman, Chicago Bulls; Donnie Nelson, Dallas Mavericks
Most Valuable Player: LeBron James
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LeBron James is already widely recognized as the NBA's best player and has been for some time. Like Michael Jordan in the 1990s, James has become the default choice for MVP year in and year out. James' competition for the Maurice Podoloff Trophy doesn't seem so stiff this time around, given reigning MVP Kevin Durant's foot injury.
While Durant is watching the Oklahoma City Thunder struggle in his absence, Bron-Bron will be busy burnishing his MVP credentials by (almost) single-handedly transforming the Cleveland Cavaliers from sad also-rans to bona fide title contenders. That, in itself, should account for plenty of value. As ESPN Stats & Information pointed out:
"In seven seasons with LeBron James, the Cavaliers won more playoff games (42) than in 37 seasons without him (28). During James’ four-season stint in Miami, Cleveland posted the worst record in the league (.311 win percentage).
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James should put up spectacular numbers of his own for the Cavs. He'll have plenty of help, to be sure, from Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love in particular. Those two should free up James to get back to being a runaway freight train on the wing in transition, with Love throwing Peyton Manning-esque outlet passes and Kyrie Irving tossing up Tom Brady-type lobs.
And if the Cavs defense is any good, James will get plenty of credit for that as well. He'll be the only truly plus defender in David Blatt's starting lineup and might be the only one of his defensive kind on the roster—who isn't well past his prime, that is.
(Sorry, Shawn Marion!)
As mentioned previously, James won't get any official credit for the Cavs' stunning offseason, but there's little doubt he played a pivotal part in resurrecting basketball by Lake Erie.
All of which is to say, the MVP is clearly LeBron's to lose.
Honorable Mentions: Blake Griffin, Dwight Howard, Kevin Durant
Who've you got for the NBA's biggest awards? Tweet me your picks!
