San Francisco 49ers: Comparing Future Schedules for the NFC West Contenders

The San Francisco 49ers come off of their bye week two games behind the Arizona Cardinals.  They are currently tied with the Seattle Seahawks at 4-3, but have the tiebreaker at the moment thanks to a superior divisional record. 

Just comparing records, however, might not be the best way to handicap the race going forward.  The teams haven’t played anything close to comparable schedules.

Arizona has yet to face the Dallas Cowboys.  Seattle hasn’t seen the Philadelphia Eagles.  San Francisco hasn’t seen San Diego.  The comparative strengths of their schedules are different, making it hard to directly compare them. 

The 49ers have faced the toughest schedule of all three teams, with their opponents going 32-18—a .640 winning percentage.  Seattle’s right behind them, with their opponents currently at 29-22-1, or a .567 winning percentage.  Arizona’s opponents are right at .500, going 25-25.  This may, in part, explain why the Cardinals have the best record of the three.

Ben Margot/Associated Press

In fact, the 49ers have the easiest slate going forward, with opponents going only 29-35 so far, and a whopping five out of nine games against teams with losing records.  The Seahawks have the roughest schedule, with their opponents at 34-29 through the first eight weeks, and the Cardinals matchup with Philadelphia is only the beginning of the tough part of their schedule, as their opponents have gone 34-31.

So, if anything, the schedule is set up for the 49ers to make up some ground without even factoring in the five remaining games between the three NFC West powerhouses.

The difference, however, is a matter of degrees.  The 49ers’ strength of schedule is somewhat buffered by the fact that they still get to play the Oakland Raiders.  At 0-7, the Raiders' record actually accounts for a full 20 percent of the losses by all 49er opponents, and yet the 49ers can’t get credit for more than one win against the silver and black.  It might be best, instead, to think of the remaining schedule as three sets—teams with winning records, teams with losing records and teams within a game of .500.

Team	Winning Records	~.500 teams	Losing Records
49ers	v.SD, @ ARI	@NO, @NYG, v.SEA, @SEA	v.STL, v.WSH, @OAK
Cardinals	@DAL, v.DET	@SEA, v.KC, v.SEA, @SF	v.STL, @ATL, @STL
Seahawks	v.AZ, @PHI, @AZ	v.NYG, @KC, @SF, v.SF	v.OAK, v.STL

With a better picture in mind of their rival’s schedule strengths, each team can start to come up with what games they simply must win in order to make the playoffs.  Both San Francisco and Arizona have a clear shot to make up ground on Seattle, which is a mixed bag for the 49ers.

For the moment, let’s assume each of these three teams will handle their low-level competition—the Oaklands and Washingtons of the world.  That’s not a safe assumption—after all, the Seahawks did lose to the St. Louis Rams and the 49ers did blow a game to the Chicago Bears earlier this season.  However, with three very solid teams, the winner will be the team that doesn’t err in the games they’re expected to win, so it’s best to assume that a team’s rivals will win—and be pleasantly surprised if and when they don’t.

That would put the Cardinals at 9-1, the 49ers at 7-3 and the Seahawks at 6-3.  The 49ers’ strength of schedule isn’t enough in and of itself for them to take over the division.

To catch the Cardinals, the 49ers have a very important set of games coming up.  After this week’s matchup against the Rams—a must-win if the 49ers consider themselves actual contenders—there’s a very difficult two-game road trip.

Dave Martin/Associated Press

First, the 49ers take on the New Orleans Saints on Nov. 9.  The Saints picked themselves up off the mat with a victory over the Green Bay Packers on Sunday night, with Drew Brees looking like Drew Brees again. 

Then, San Francisco has to travel to New York to take on the Giants on Nov. 16—a Giants team that might well be riding a four-game losing streak entering that matchup.

There is a humongous swing if the 49ers go 2-0 on that road trip compared to 0-2.  Simply sweeping that road trip is enough to give the 49ers a legitimate shot at making the playoffs, even if they never beat the Seahawks or Cardinals this season. 

There will probably be at least one 9-7 team left home in the NFC when all is said and done, but that record has gotten teams into the playoffs 51 percent of the time since 1990.  Do business on the road trip, and don’t blow any of the games against losing teams, and the 49ers will be sitting in an alright position.

To really clinch a spot, however, there’s no way around it—they’ll need at least one win in their three games against Seattle and Arizona.  The road to the playoffs if they go 0-3 in those games is a rough one, indeed—that would essentially remove any margin for error for the 49ers, and they still have to play the San Diego Chargers later in the year.

The Week 13 home game against Seattle and the Week 17 home game against Arizona could well decide the 49ers’ fate.  If the Giants and Saints games are the two games that will help the 49ers most to win, the Seattle and Arizona showdowns are the games that would hurt the most for the 49ers to lose.  A loss against the Giants or Saints simply mean the 49ers have to do better against their division rivals.  Losses to both division rivals likely pushes the 49ers out of the division race.

So, if you’re thinking about scoreboard watching, you can hold off for a few more weeks.  The 49ers next three weeks will position them for the stretch run and tell us just how well they’ll have to perform against Arizona, Seattle and San Diego to return to the playoffs.  Until the end of the Giants game in three weeks, there’s no sense in getting too worked up over the results in Arizona or Seattle.  The 49ers have business of their own to take care of first.

Bryan Knowles is a featured columnist for Bleacher Report, covering the San Francisco 49ers.  Follow him @BryKno on twitter.