Fantasy Basketball 2014-15: Ranking the 10 Biggest Difference-Makers This Season
When constructing a championship-worthy fantasy basketball squad, you're looking for two things in particular: players who won't force you to punt a category and difference-makers who can help you single-handedly win one (or more).
Houston Rockets center Dwight Howard, for instance, has long been one of the league's best shot-blockers and rebounders, giving his fantasy owners a major advantage in those two categories. Owners in rotisserie leagues, however, can hardly afford his dismal free-throw percentage dragging down the rest of their rosters. (Los Angeles Clippers center DeAndre Jordan is in the same boat.)
Head-to-head owners in nine-category leagues have much more leeway in terms of punting, as they only need to be especially dominant in five categories per week. That makes fantasy studs like Howard, Jordan and Andre Drummond potentially worth far more to those squads than their predraft rankings suggest.
Here, with help from ESPN's 2013-14 Player Rater, let's take a look at 10 such players who can single-handedly bolster your roster in one or more categories, giving you a strong foundation from which to work. If you're looking to build around a certain statistic, these are the guys worth targeting either in your draft or trades.
Honorable Mentions
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Uncertainty surrounding these three—either due to a change of role, change of team or change of teammates—has them fall just outside the top 10. All three can still be major difference-makers for your fantasy squads, though.
DeAndre Jordan, Los Angeles Clippers
2013-14 Player Rater Rank: 26
In his first year under head coach Doc Rivers, Jordan exploded for career highs in points (10.4), rebounds (13.6), blocks (2.5), steals (1.0), assists (0.9) and minutes per game (35.0). Unlike Jordan's previous coaches, who would pull him out in fourth quarters due to his dismal free-throw shooting, Rivers had faith in his big man.
Jordan led the league last year in terms of rebounds and field-goal percentage (.676) and finished third in blocks. Unsurprisingly, those positive statistics translated to the fantasy realm, too: He finished third in field-goal percentage value, first in rebounds and second in blocks.
The addition of Spencer Hawes makes Jordan's fourth-quarter role slightly more uncertain this year, as the Clippers may not need to trot him out for 35 minutes per game again. If you're willing to punt on free-throw percentage, though—Jordan posted a league-low minus-6.54 in that category last year, per ESPN's Player Rater—he can single-handedly help you win field-goal percentage, rebounds and blocks.
Kevin Love, Cleveland Cavaliers
2013-14 Player Rater Rank: 4
The days of Love averaging 25 points and 15 boards are likely over now that he's joined the Cavaliers. With LeBron James, Kyrie Irving and Dion Waiters to feed, his usage percentage—which has been above 28 percent in each of the last three years—is bound to take a hit this coming season.
That doesn't necessarily mean Love's days as an elite fantasy option are over, however. In the preseason, he averaged 14.0 points, 7.8 rebounds, 2.2 assists and 1.7 three-pointers in just 24.3 minutes. Extrapolate those figures to per-36-minute averages, and he'd be at 20.7 points, 11.6 boards, 3.2 dimes and 2.5 threes per game.
He likely won't single-handedly win you the rebounds category like he did back in his Minnesota Timberwolves days, but his combination of elite scoring, rebounding and three-point shooting makes him one of the top bigs to target this year regardless.
John Wall, Washington Wizards
2013-14 Player Rater Rank: 11
Chris Paul may have led the NBA in assists per game last season, but no player had a higher fantasy assist value than Wall, per ESPN's Player Rater. While Paul missed a month due to a strained shoulder, the Wizards point guard appeared in all 82 games, averaging a career-high 8.8 dimes per contest.
So long as Wall can remain healthy this season—he's played every game in two of the past three years—he'll once again provide top-three value in terms of assists at the bare minimum. His two top competitors for the fantasy assists crown, Paul and Rajon Rondo, each come with much greater concerns about their durability, which raises the potential of Wall leading all players in fantasy assist value once more.
At the bare minimum, the fifth-year Kentucky product should have little trouble averaging somewhere in the neighborhood of 18 points, eight dimes and 1.5 steals per game, which makes him an obvious top-15 overall value this season. If you're desperate for steals and assists, try to pry Wall from his owner at nearly any cost.
10. Dwight Howard, Houston Rockets
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2013-14 Player Rater Rank: 58
Dwight Howard's dismal fantasy rank last season is tied to one thing: his Shaquille O'Neal-esque free-throw shooting. The Houston Rockets center hit just 54.7 percent of his 9.0 attempts per game from the charity stripe in 2013-14, which gave him the third-worst fantasy free-throw value in the league, per ESPN's Player Rater.
That's unlikely to change this season, given his 9-of-19 effort from the line during the Rockets' first two games. Head-to-head owners can overcome Howard's miserable free-throw percentage if they're willing to punt on that category, but rotisserie owners might be best suited to steer clear entirely.
For head-to-head owners willing to punt on the free-throw category, however, Howard's value in field-goal percentage, rebounds and blocks makes him a potential stud. Last season, he ranked fourth in field-goal percentage fantasy value, fifth in rebounds and eighth in blocks, as he averaged 18.3 points, 12.2 boards and 1.8 rejections in just 33.7 minutes per game while shooting 59.1 percent from the field.
Now, with Howard feeling healthy for the first time since undergoing back surgery two years ago, per Yahoo Sports' Adrian Wojnarowski, D12 is ready to dominate once more. Omer Asik is no longer around as a viable backup at the 5, leaving the Rockets little choice but to lean more heavily on Howard in Year 2 of his tenure in Houston.
His 33.7 minutes per game last season were the fewest he's played since his rookie year in Orlando, which means he's likely due for an uptick in playing time. He should have little trouble averaging 20 points, 13 rebounds and two blocks per game this season while shooting nearly 60 percent from the field, making him a major fantasy stud if you can endure his awful free-throw shooting.
9. Klay Thompson, Golden State Warriors
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2013-14 Player Rater Rank: 40
Unlike Dwight Howard, whose fantasy value lies strictly in scoring, rebounding and shot blocking, Klay Thompson will make his impact felt primarily in three-pointers. The Golden State Warriors shooting guard banged home 2.8 shots per game from deep last season, and his 223 total made threes ranked second in the league behind his fellow Splash Brother, Stephen Curry.
That stellar shooting from downtown made him the second-most valuable fantasy player in terms of three-point shooting, per ESPN's Player Rater. Terrifyingly enough, there's reason to believe he'll only become more prolific from deep in 2014-15, which should help him finish the year as a no-brainer top-three shooting guard.
During his seven-game preseason stint, Thompson averaged 3.1 three-pointers in just 26.7 minutes per contest. He fired at least six attempts from deep in four of those seven games, including a 5-of-6 outing against the Los Angeles Lakers on Oct. 9 and a 4-of-12 night against the Denver Nuggets on Oct. 24.
He finished just 2-of-8 from downtown in the Warriors' regular-season opener against the Sacramento Kings on Oct. 29, but the number of three-point attempts should be encouraging to anyone who drafted Thompson this season. Even more encouraging: He finished 9-of-10 from the charity stripe after attempting just 2.3 free throws per game last season.
With Thompson entering a contract year—barring a last-second Hail Mary of an extension agreement—the less-heralded Splash Brother appears to be in for a career season. Fantasy owners with him on their squads should expect a massive advantage in three-pointers, while any additional value he provides is just gravy.
8. Andre Drummond, Detroit Pistons
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2013-14 Player Rater Rank: 36
Despite having the second-worst free-throw fantasy value in the league last season, per ESPN's Player Rater, Andre Drummond finished the year as a top-40 option in eight-category leagues. He shot a ghastly 41.8 percent from the charity stripe but compensated by averaging 13.5 points on 62.3 percent shooting, 13.2 rebounds and 1.6 blocks per game.
The hope in 2014-15 is for new Detroit Pistons head coach Stan Van Gundy to accomplish with Drummond what he did with Dwight Howard back in Orlando. As ESPN.com's Patrick Hayes wrote, Van Gundy is "the coach who helped Howard develop from a raw, athletic dynamo who succeeded because of his otherworldly athletic gifts into the best center in the league, a top-five player with a refined enough offensive game to complement his physical gifts."
Thus far, the early returns appear positive for the Van Gundy-Drummond duo. The UConn product looks far more advanced in terms of his post footwork, breaking out a number of deft moves in the Pistons' season opener against the Denver Nuggets.
If SVG can help develop Drummond's offense, the third-year center will become an all-around fantasy stud in no time. He already finished the 2013-14 season ranked second in rebounding, second in field-goal percentage and seventh in shot-blocking, despite playing just 32.3 minutes per game.
Like Howard, Drummond should be far more appealing to head-to-head owners than those in roto leagues, as his abysmal free-throw shooting will single-handedly sink you in that category. There's no reason not to expect at least 12-14 rebounds, two blocks and a field-goal percentage around .600, however, making him a potential top-20 value for those willing to punt on free throws.
7. Serge Ibaka, Oklahoma City Thunder
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2013-14 Player Rater Rank: 9
With Kevin Durant sidelined by a foot fracture for the first month of the season, Serge Ibaka is primed to get off to a roaring start. The Oklahoma City Thunder power forward averaged a career-high 15.1 points and 8.8 rebounds per game last year, but his true fantasy value lies in shot blocking.
Ibaka swatted 2.7 shots a night in 2013-14, which actually was his lowest mark over the past three seasons. He led the league with 3.7 blocks per game in 2011-12 and racked up a league-high 3.0 rejections per game the following year.
Though Ibaka trailed Anthony Davis in terms of blocks per game last season, he led all players in terms of fantasy shot-blocking value due to his durability, per ESPN's Player Rater. Unlike Davis, who missed 15 games due to a handful of minor bumps and bruises, Ibaka played in all 82 contests, which helped him lead the league in total blocks (219) for the fourth straight season.
The biggest uncertainty here, beyond KD's early-season absence: How will Steven Adams' presence as OKC's new starting center affect Ibaka's shot-blocking totals? Adams averaged 0.7 blocks in just 14.8 minutes per game last season, which, extrapolated to per-36-minute averages, would be nearly two rejections a night.
If the Congolese shot-swatter can still send around three balls per game into the stands, he's likely to finish the season as a top-10 fantasy value once more. If you're drafting in the late first round and plan on building around blocks, Ibaka is your guy.
6. Kevin Durant, Oklahoma City Thunder
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2013-14 Player Rater Rank: 1
If Kevin Durant weren't set to miss at least the first month of the season due to a foot fracture, he'd be the unquestioned top difference-maker in fantasy.
No one finished within 3.5 points of his fantasy value in 2013-14, per ESPN's Player Rating, as the reigning MVP ranked first in points and free-throw percentage and ended the year sixth in three-point value. He also posted top-20 values in field-goal percentage and assists, ranked 28th in steals and was 33rd in rebounding.
In short, unlike guys such as Dwight Howard and Andre Drummond, Durant is an all-around fantasy behemoth. He's strong enough in certain categories—points, free-throw percentage and three-pointers—to give you a massive advantage there, and his well-roundedness won't hurt you elsewhere.
Unfortunately, the foot fracture that will sideline KD until mid-December puts a severe damper on his fantasy value, especially in roto leagues. Head-to-head owners, on the other hand, will have a massive steal on their hands come playoff time if they can weather the storm without him in the early going.
There's always the chance that Durant doesn't make it back onto the court in his original six-to-eight-week timeline, as the Oklahoma City Thunder can't afford to take chances with their franchise cornerstone's health. Assuming he does make it back by Christmas, though, KD will shoot right back up into the top echelon of fantasy threats soon thereafter.
5. Chris Paul, Los Angeles Clippers
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2013-14 Player Rater Rank: 12
Here's how dominant Chris Paul was in 2013-14: Despite missing 20 games, he still finished the year as the 12th-best fantasy player, per ESPN's Player Rater. The Los Angeles Clippers floor general led the league in both assists (10.7) and steals (2.5) per game, which unsurprisingly translated to massive value in the fantasy realm.
Paul ranked fourth in terms of fantasy assist value, behind just John Wall, Ricky Rubio and Stephen Curry, and was third in steals, trailing just Rubio and Thaddeus Young. CP3 also chipped in a top-15 finish in free-throw percentage, having knocked home 85.5 percent of his 5.6 attempts per game from the charity stripe.
If the preseason is any indication, Paul will show no signs of slowing down in 2014-15. He averaged 18.4 points, 10.8 assists and 2.9 steals per 36 minutes, according to RealGM, which was shockingly similar to his per-36-minute averages from 2013-14 (19.6 points, 11.0 assists and 2.6 steals).
There's always the chance of injury with CP3—he's missed 32 out of a possible 164 contests the past two seasons—but in all likelihood, you'll be getting at least 65-70 games from him this year. Given his top-five finishes in steals and assists even after missing 20 tilts in 2013-14, there's little reason to believe the Clippers floor general won't bolster your roster in those two categories once more.
With Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan still ready to dunk home a bevy of lobs, J.J. Redick and Matt Barnes spotting up on the wing and the Clippers touting less point guard depth now that Darren Collison plays for Sacramento, Paul appears poised for a top-five overall season. Long live Lob City.
4. James Harden, Houston Rockets
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2013-14 Player Rater Rank: 5
James Harden is a free-throw-drawing machine. It's as simple as that when it comes to his fantasy value.
In his first two seasons with the Houston Rockets, Harden knocked down 85.8 percent of the 9.6 free-throw attempts he averaged per game. He led all players in foul shots during the 2012-13 season (10.2 per game) and trailed only Kevin Durant (9.1) last year.
Unsurprisingly, Harden ranked second in terms of free-throw fantasy value last season, per ESPN's Player Rater, but that wasn't the only category in which he dominated. He posted top-20 finishes in three-pointers, assists, steals and points, which helps explain how he ended the year as the fifth-best fantasy value in eight-category leagues.
Through two games this season, he's already off to a roaring start, averaging 25 points, eight assists, four rebounds and two three-pointers, along with 11 free-throw attempts per night. Those stats should be taken with a grain of salt—they did come against the Los Angeles Lakers and Utah Jazz, after all—but Harden's ability to dominate in multiple facets of the game should only help his fantasy owners.
For fantasy owners looking to draft Andre Drummond, Dwight Howard or DeAndre Jordan early, Harden would be the ideal antidote to their dismal free-throw shooting. Given his accuracy from the charity stripe and the high volume of foul shots he attempts per night, he's primed for yet another top-two finish in that category, along with a top-20 season in a few others.
3. LeBron James, Cleveland Cavaliers
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2013-14 Player Rater Rank: 3
LeBron James' first regular-season game as a Cleveland Cavalier couldn't have gone much worse. He finished the night with 17 points on 5-of-15 shooting (including a 1-of-5 effort from three-point range), five rebounds, four assists and a whopping eight turnovers in the Cavs' 95-90 loss to the New York Knicks on Thursday night.
Now isn't the time to go selling low on LeBron, however. In fact, if any owners in your fantasy league are panicked about his dismal start, you should do everything you can to buy him for 90 cents on the dollar.
James was a fantasy Godzilla during his final season with the Miami Heat in 2013-14, finishing third overall behind just Kevin Durant and Stephen Curry, per ESPN's Player Rater. He led all players in terms of field-goal-percentage value—yes, ahead of Andre Drummond, DeAndre Jordan and Dwight Howard—by virtue of hitting a career-high 56.7 percent of his 17.6 shot attempts per game.
The four-time MVP's shooting percentage is his biggest categorical appeal in fantasy, but his well-roundedness is what makes him truly elite. Last season, he ranked third in points, ninth in assists, 14th in steals, 43rd in rebounds and 47th in three-pointers, posting negative fantasy value in just free-throw percentage and blocks.
James' averages are likely to take a slight dip this season with so many mouths to feed in Cleveland, but the attention paid to Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love should only help bolster his field-goal percentage further. There's no reason to expect less than a top-five-overall finish from LBJ in fantasy this year, despite the poor first game.
2. Stephen Curry, Golden State Warriors
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2013-14 Player Rater Rank: 2
Like it when your first-round fantasy pick rains down long-range bombs without a care in the world? Meet Stephen Curry, the league leader in both three-point makes and attempts in each of the past two seasons.
Curry's prolific shooting was the stuff of legend even before he joined the NBA, as he carried his Davidson Wildcats on a thrilling Cinderella run to the Elite Eight in 2008. Since coming into the league six years ago, nothing has changed for the Golden State Warriors floor general, who has yet to shoot worse than 42.4 percent from downtown in a single season.
Former Warriors head coach Mark Jackson gave Curry a clear green light over the past two seasons, as he attempted nearly eight shots per game from beyond the arc. When you're knocking down 3.4 threes a night, there's no reason not to keep bombing away; in fact, ESPN.com's Tom Haberstroh believes he should be attempting more than 10 shots per game from downtown (subscription required).
During the preseason, Curry knocked down 3.5 three-point attempts per 36 minutes, according to RealGM, while shooting 51.4 percent from deep. He went just 2-of-9 from three-point range during the Warriors' season-opening win against the Sacramento Kings, but fantasy owners should be thrilled to see how often he bombed away despite the middling efficiency.
As the Warriors grow more comfortable with new head coach Steve Kerr's offense, Curry's three-point accuracy should only increase accordingly. If you're looking to build your fantasy team around long-range shooters, the Davidson product is by far the best option available this season.
1. Anthony Davis, New Orleans Pelicans
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2013-14 Player Rater Rank: 7
If Anthony Davis' performance in the New Orleans Pelicans' season opener was an indication of what's to come this season, stop reading this, get on your knees, and bow before your unibrowed overlord.
Against the Orlando Magic on Tuesday night, Davis exploded for 26 points, 17 rebounds, nine blocks, three steals and two assists while shooting 10-of-22 overall and 6-of-9 from the charity stripe. Those who doubted his worthiness of being this year's No. 1 overall fantasy pick—especially with Kevin Durant sidelined—emerged with some serious egg on their face Wednesday morning.
Davis is due for some regression to the mean, but there's no reason to believe he won't finish this year with top-five fantasy finishes in both rebounds and blocks so long as he remains healthy. The Brow ranked 19th in rebounds and third in blocks last season despite missing 15 games with a handful of minor ailments.
Omer Asik's presence in the middle for New Orleans enables Davis to take a few more gambles, which should only help his steal and block totals rise. He likely won't continue attempting 20-plus shots per night—he averaged just 15.3 last season—but there's no reason he can't finish the season with per-game averages of 22 points, 12 rebounds and three blocks.
Best of yet, unlike Dwight Howard, Andre Drummond and DeAndre Jordan, Davis won't cripple his fantasy owners at the free-throw line. He knocked down 79.1 percent of his 6.6 attempts per game from the charity stripe last season, making him a true rarity among fantasy big men.
Anyone lucky enough to have Davis on his fantasy roster this year will have a clear advantage in points, rebounds and blocks. If you find yourself squaring off with a Davis-led team in your fantasy playoffs, it'll likely take a herculean effort from your roster to escape with the win.
Unless otherwise noted, all player statistics via Basketball-Reference.com and all fantasy values via ESPN's Player Rater.
