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Has James Shields' Postseason Performance Crushed Free-Agency Value?

Jacob ShaferOct 26, 2014

Blame it on the nickname. Before each start this postseason, the Kansas City Royals' James Shields has been reminded about his "Big Game" reputation. Each time, he's failed to deliver.

Entering Game 5 of the World Series, Shields had allowed 15 earned runs in 19 innings during the 2014 playoffs, including a forgettable three-inning, five-run performance in Game 1 of the Fall Classic.

On Sunday, Shields again faced San Francisco Giants ace Madison Bumgarner, who was everything Shields wasn't in Game 1: poised, effective and dominant.

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Shields pitched well enough in Game 5, yielding two runs on eight hits through six innings. Bumgarner, however, was transcendent, tossing his second complete-game shutout of this postseason and carrying the Giants to a 5-0 victory and 3-2 series edge.

It's unfair to pin it all on Shields. It isn't his fault the Royals ran through the Bumgarner buzz saw. He looked sharper than he has in weeks and kept Kansas City in the game; on another night, it might have been enough.

And yet, while the plucky, small-market Royals have streaked through October and into America's heart, Shields simply hasn't done enough to lift his team—or his own offseason prospects.

The 32-year-old right-hander will be a free agent this winter. He's sure to draw interest from an array of suitors who are undoubtedly watching these playoffs closely—and possibly adjusting their offers accordingly.

As Nick Cafardo of The Boston Globe noted after Game 1: "The good news, for teams such as the Red Sox or Yankees, is that the free agent price tag on James Shields might have fallen a bit."

Of course, one game, or even one month, does not a career make. Shields is still an attractive option for any contender. He went 14-8 with a 3.21 ERA and 1.181 WHIP in the regular season, and he proved his durability with 227 innings pitched, the eighth straight year he's eclipsed the 200-inning mark.

Still, his October failures could well be the difference between a massive, $100-plus million, five-year deal and something more modest, especially with other top-flight starters like Jon Lester and Max Scherzer on the market.

When Kansas City acquired Shields from the Tampa Bay Rays prior to the 2013 season for a package of top prospects, it wasn't a universally popular move. In fact, Rob Neyer, now of FoxSports.com, called it the "worst trade in MLB history."

Less than two years later, the Royals are in the World Series, and Shields is a major reason why, October shortcomings aside.

"I know what kind of pitcher he is," Royals skipper Ned Yost said prior to Game 5, per Blair Kerkhoff of The Kansas City Star. "I know when he steps on the mound he’s going to be ready physically and mentally to compete and give us the best effort."

That's a nice vote of confidence. Unfortunately, it doesn't disguise the pedestrian results. As Shields himself told Kerkhoff, "Obviously the last couple of starts weren’t the way I wanted them to end up. Sometimes those things happen; unfortunately it’s right now."

It's possible most general managers will consider the sample size and weigh Shields' body of work more heavily than his unsightly postseason stats.

Heck, look at Lester. The Oakland A's acquired the veteran southpaw from Boston, giving up potent slugger Yoenis Cespedes, because of his playoff pedigree. Lester then coughed up six runs to the Royals in the AL Wild Card Game, a nail-biter Kansas City ultimately won in extra innings. And yet no one's suggesting Lester isn't a premier free-agent arm.

Maybe it's the nickname. Maybe it's the fact that Shields has never pitched particularly well in the postseason (he carried a 5.74 career playoff ERA into Sunday's start). Either way, regardless of how the World Series breaks, "Big Game James" might have to brace for a smaller payday.

All statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com

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