Broncos Can Use Statement Game Thursday as Launch Pad to Greatness

It’s safe to say the Denver Broncos are the best team in the NFL through seven weeks, but their Week 8 adversary is certainly a worthy opponent. The San Diego Chargers are 5-2 and have one of the few quarterbacks in the league today who can go toe-to-toe with Peyton Manning—Philip Rivers.

There would be no shame in a loss Thursday night, but if that were to happen, the Broncos would merely be one of a handful of good teams in the league and no longer front-runners in the AFC West. Win, and the Broncos cement their status as the best team in the league and take command of the division.

More importantly, Thursday night’s game can be a statement game for the Broncos. A narrow win or loss probably doesn’t change the league-wide perception of the Broncos, but another blowout win over a good opponent could serve as a launch pad to the narrative that they are one of the best teams ever.

Even with a lot of football left to play, it would be hard to ignore their accomplishments through seven games with a big win Thursday. The Broncos would be 6-1 with the only loss being a defeat in overtime against the Seattle Seahawks. By the time the dust settles on Week 8, five of the six wins could be against teams with winning records.

Stat	Value	Rank	Historical Rank
DVOA	48.7%	1	6
Elo	1683	1	26
Offensive DVOA	34.1%	1	-
Defensive DVOA	-18.2%	2	-

Consider also that the Broncos are already No. 1 in Football Outsiders’ DVOA. A big win over a quality opponent like the Chargers would only improve a stat like this. The Broncos are already the sixth-best team in DVOA through Week 7 since 1989 and the No. 1 offense and No. 2 defense.

Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight and his Elo rating isn’t quite as bullish on the Broncos. That rating has the Broncos behind 25 other teams since 1970 and pegs them as basically an average No. 1 team through seven weeks. A blowout win over the Chargers—Silver’s No. 7 team—could change that because his rating system factors in strength of opponent and margin of victory.

Of course, none of these measurements dive into the individual matchups nor do they consider injuries. The Chargers will be without cornerback Brandon Flowers, the team’s best defensive player, according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required), because he sustained a concussion Sunday.

Cornerback Jason Verrett, the Chargers' third-best defender per PFF, is questionable Thursday night after missing Sunday’s game. Not being full strength in their secondary is fairly significant against the best offense in the league by points per game and many other statistical measures.

Chargers	Position	Status	PFF Grade
Broncos	Position	Status	PFF Grade
Brandon Flowers	CB	OUT	+11.8
Jason Verrett	CB	Questionable	+8.2
Ryan Matthews	RB	OUT	-0.5
Manti Te'o	LB	OUT	+1.8
Montee Ball	RB	OUT	-0.7
Danny Trevathan	LB	IR-DFR	0.0

On the other side, the Broncos are pretty healthy. Only running back Montee Ball and special teamer Omar Bolden are out Sunday, according to the team's injury report. Ronnie Hillman has been more effective than Ball was when he was starting, so the loss may not be significant.

Weak-side linebacker Danny Trevathan, who is on injured reserve with the designation he can return, may be the Broncos’ most significant injury because the Chargers have two talented tight ends. Last season, the Broncos held tight ends Antonio Gates and Ladarius Green to a combined 127 yards in three games, and Trevathan was a big part of that.

Just about everything else favors the Broncos, especially at home. The Chargers are down to their fourth running back in Branden Oliver, and although he has been a pleasant surprise, the Broncos are allowing just 3.3 yards per carry this season.

Last year, the Broncos allowed 3.9 yards per carry, and the Chargers successfully used the ground game to beat them in Denver in Week 15. Ryan Mathews rushed for 127 yards on 29 carries, and Danny Woodhead added 29 yards on nine carries. Rivers only attempted 20 passes in that game.

If the Chargers can’t keep the ball out of Manning’s hands, they’ll have problems staying in the game. If the Broncos pull away, they now have the perfect team to protect a lead.

Broncos Pass-Rushers	Sacks	Hits	Hurries
Chargers Offensive Tackles	Sacks	Hits	Hurries
DeMarcus Ware	8	6	13
Von Miller	9	4	23
Total	17	10	36
D.J. Fluker	2	2	17
King Dunlap	2	2	18
Total	4	4	35

Pass-rushers DeMarcus Ware and Von Miller have been terrorizing opposing quarterbacks in recent weeks, and Rivers has been holding the ball longer this season and throwing more deep passes. The Broncos also have better coverage outside than they did last season.

Cornerback Chris Harris Jr. currently leads the league in quarterback rating allowed at 33.5, according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required). Harris also leads the league in number of snaps in coverage per reception allowed and yards allowed per coverage snap. Harris is one of just 10 cornerbacks to have not missed a tackle this season along with Flowers.

“I think this year, we’re a totally different team than last year at this point,” Harris said via DenverBroncos.com (link opens document). “Last year they caught us sleeping. And then this year, we know that they can come in and beat us, so we’re preparing well, preparing hard and I think we’ll be a lot better this upcoming Thursday.”

Rivers will have to attack Aqib Talib, who has an interception in each of his last two games, or talented rookie cornerback Bradley Roby. The rookie has been tested often this season, but he has performed admirably so far.  

The Broncos have the pieces necessary to put the hurt on just about any team, but to do it against the Chargers on short rest is taking it to the next level. Despite their performance so far, the Broncos don’t think they’ve played their best football yet.

“We have a great group of guys in the locker room, even when it started off a little bit rough for us in the beginning of the season,” Miller said via DenverBroncos.com (opens document). “We just kept sticking to it. We are nowhere close to where we can be.”