Green Bay Packers vs New Orleans Saints: Breaking Down Green Bay's Game Plan

Entering Week 8, the Green Bay Packers have a 5-2 record and have won five of their last six matches. On the flip side, the New Orleans Saints have started the season with a 2-4 record, with their past two weeks consisting of a bye week and a loss to the Detroit Lions, who at 5-2 are tied with the Packers on top of the NFC North.

While cold, the Saints' division, the NFC South, hasn't exactly been stellar overall this season. Despite a 2-4 mark on the year, New Orleans still leads the NFC South in Super Bowl odds, according to Odds Shark. They're currently between a 33-1 to 40-1 shot at winning it all. Green Bay is second-best in the league with 8-1 set odds, best for the NFC, just edging out Seattle's 9-1 odds.

Drew Brees and the Saints may not think this is a must-win game, as Ryan Wood of Press-Gazette Media discussed, but on the outside, it seems hard to fathom a 2-5 team would turn around to win 10 or so games and end up in the playoffs.

Currently, New Orleans, the home team, has a slight edge as the favorite, per Odds Shark. For Green Bay to win, it must execute on both sides of the ball. New Orleans is no easy place to play.

Offensive Key: Play a Full 60 Minutes

Tom Lynn/Associated Press

Despite four losses behind their 2014 campaign, the Saints have an interesting trend behind those games. Against Cleveland, they lost by two points; against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, they lost by six points; and last week against the Detroit Lions, they lost by one point. In total, three of their four losses came down to the wire.

Green Bay's issue may be letting off the gas. Against Miami, for example, the Packers scored on their first drive, but they nearly took another full quarter to get back on the board to respond to a Dolphins score. After that, they went on another cold streak that lasted about another quarter.

Point blank: The Packers offense needs to win the shootout against the Saints. Vegas is predicting 56 points being scored in the game, according to Odds Shark, the highest over/under of the week. In fact, only two other matches are projected to even go over 50 points.

They need to score often and in any way possible. With the game being played in New Orleans, it'll be a tough task. Even head coach Mike McCarthy acknowledged that earlier in the week:

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I would like to think our whole team clearly understands we're getting ready to go into a hotbox down there in New Orleans. I mean, this is going to be a big-time environment, big-time game. These are the kind of games you love to play in. Everybody wants to go get this one and get to 6-2, especially after where we were four weeks ago.

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To win, the Packers may need to hit on a high percentage of drives, as they did against the Carolina Panthers or even the Chicago Bears, when they scored on all but one drive offensively.

With All-World quarterback Aaron Rodgers at the helm, it's not an impossible task. Receivers Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb also have shown improvement in 2014. The issue on Sunday night will surround consistency of the offense not the talent.

Defensive Key: Limit Drew Brees

Rick Osentoski/Associated Press

Statistically, Drew Brees has been a shell of himself in 2014. Currently, he's slated to complete 67.7 percent of his passes for 29 touchdowns and 19 interceptions at his current pace. In 2013, just one year ago, he completed 68.6 percent of his passes to pair with 39 touchdowns, while only throwing 12 interceptions.

Many have faulted Brees for part of the Saints' viewed regression as an overall squad.  Even Larry Holder of The (New Orleans) Times-Picayune questioned if he was on the decline earlier this month.

By the numbers, there is no question. Some attribute the decline to the substandard deep-ball efficiency the team has had up to this point in the season. Pete Damilatis of Pro Football Focus illustrated that factor in provided Brees' stats over the past five seasons:

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The previous 5 seasons, Drew Brees averaged 1,163 yds, 13 TD on passes 20+ yds downfield. His pace this season: 720 yds, 5 TD.

— Pete Damilatis (@PFF_Pete) October 22, 2014"

Others, such as The MMQB's Greg A. Bedard, see a trend in the pass-protection department, putting the blame on the shoulders of the offensive line:

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In his six games this season, Brees has been pressured at least 25 percent of the time in five of those games. Brees got his best protection (21.1 percent pressure) in the win over the Vikings. In total, Brees has been pressured on 29.2 percent of his dropbacks.

Brady has felt pressure on more than a quarter of his dropbacks in four of his seven games. Those four games included the Patriots’ two losses (when Brady was pressured 40.0 and 42.3 percent of the time), with the other two narrow home victories over the Raiders and Jets (teams that are 1-12 combined). For the season, Brady has been pressured more than Brees (30.8 percent).

Then there’s Manning. He has crossed the 25 percent pressure threshold only twice: the loss against the Seahawks and the struggle against the Jets. Manning has been pressured on less than 19.2 percent of his snaps in four of his six games. Neither Brees nor Brady has been kept that clean in any game.

For Brees, the final two drives against the Lions were a microcosm of the season thus far. On 11 dropbacks over the final two drives (one a run by Brees), he was pressured eight times, including the interception with 3:20 to play that allowed the Lions to take the lead. Brees has to find a way not to make that mistake, but those things happen when you’re constantly feeling the heat.

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Either way, the Saints haven't thrown any of the blame on Brees publicly. Head coach Sean Payton even stated that his quarterback was the least of his worries, per Tom Mantzouranis of SINow:

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The LEAST? Eh. RT @SteveGellerWWL: Payton : Brees is not pressing. Decision making & rhythm is outstanding. He is the least of our worries

— Tom Mantzouranis (@themantz) October 20, 2014"

Some may not agree with the coach, but the threat of Brees, even on a potential decline, is still great. Many of the thoughts being shared regarding him are the same things that various personalities stated about Rodgers after a slow 1-2 start. Green Bay must avoid being the ignition to restart the Super Bowl MVP.

If pass protection is indeed the struggle, the Packers have something they can use to their advantage: a stable of pass-rushers. Shown last week to Carolina was the Packers' "NASCAR" defense in which Clay Matthews, Julius Peppers, Nick Perry and Mike Neal were all on the field in various positions. Jay Hodgson of AllGBP.com summed up the defense's purpose well:

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The NASCAR defense is basically a 0-5-6 defense. It has no down linemen (by title) on the field, five linebackers (Julius Peppers, Clay Matthews, Mike Neal, Nick Perry, and A.J. Hawk), and the dime defensive back grouping (Davon House, Tramon Williams, Casey Hayward, Morgan Burnett, Micah Hyde, and Haha Clinton-Dix).

The defense has four outside linebackers playing the front four down lineman to take advantage of their pass rushing skills and six defensive backs solidifying the pass coverage. As a trade off, it’s a good pass defense, but probably not the best against the run. Consequently, it’s probably best saved for obvious passing downs.

Based on my unofficial breakdown, the Packers used it a total of four times, all on 3rd down with passing distances.

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Against a spread team such as the New Orleans that is lacking in pass protection, the NASCAR defense may just be exactly what the doctor ordered. In a projected shootout, you must rely on takeaways to win the game. In highly pressurized situations, with sacks or interceptions being of higher result, a quarterback must be sharp, which Brees hasn't proven to be this season.

Green Bay currently ranks second in interceptions in the NFL with 10. Just one more could be the deciding factor of Sunday's match.

Final Thoughts

With two teams trying to take leads in their respective divisions, this game should be of premier focus on Sunday night. Green Bay will enter a hostile environment, which the Saints won't treat as a must-win, but it sure feels like one from the outside looking in. Mike Triplett of ESPN NFL Nation urged the Packers to "beware":

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#Packers beware: #Saints have won 13 straight prime-time home games by nearly 20 poits per game http://t.co/zBuX6Dzfze

— Mike Triplett (@MikeTriplett) October 22, 2014"

To come out with a victory, the Packers offense must stay alive and awake for the entire game, not allowing New Orleans to hang around like it did against the New York Jets and Miami Dolphins previously. Defensively, the Packers must try to take advantage of Brees' slump, which can be attributed to his pass protection.

If Green Bay is able to execute those two plans, it's of a higher probability to come out of the Super Dome with a victory, potentially leaving with the standalone lead in the NFC North.