Alex Smith Is Justifying Big Contract with Efficient Playmaking

When the Kansas City Chiefs agreed to a four-year, $68 million extension with quarterback Alex Smith prior to the start of the season, they were making the statement that he would be the starting quarterback now and for the foreseeable future. The search for his replacement isn’t imminent.

Some bristled at the kind of money the Chiefs had to pay Smith to keep him around, but with every 2014 snap, he is nudging closer and closer to justifying his monster contract. Smith has done so quietly and with efficiency more than flash—as only Smith can.

Smith hasn’t changed who he is. He understands that the Chiefs paid him to be himself, so he isn’t pressing. He isn’t trying to throw long touchdown bombs to Junior Hemingway or run the ball like Michael Vick. Efficient playmaking is his game, and he’s arguably having one of the best seasons of his career so far.  

According to Pro Football Focus (subscription required), Smith has attempted just nine passes over 20 yards. By comparison, Nick Foles of the Philadelphia Eagles has thrown deep 48 times. It’s this type of conservative play that has earned Smith labels like “game manager” and “captain checkdown.”

Except the labels do a disservice to Smith, who has a completion percentage of 64 percent—his highest since 2012, when he was with the San Francisco 49ers. Smith’s accuracy percentage—which excludes drops, spikes, batted passes and passes thrown while being hit—is a league-high 81.2 percent, according to Pro Football Focus (subscription).

Smith’s receivers are dropping passes at a league-high clip of 9.6 percent, per the data, so there is little reason he should trust them to haul in deep passes, and his number should be even better. Smith is doing some of his best work under pressure, and he’s protecting the football better than he ever has before, which is hiding many of the Chiefs’ offensive deficiencies.

Through six games, Smith has just one fumble on 202 dropbacks. That’s a career-low rate of just a 0.50 fumble percentage per dropback and 6.25 percent per sack. Smith’s combined interception and fumble percentage is just 2.48 percent, his best since 2011.

Stats via Pro-Football-Reference.com

Smith’s accuracy percentage under pressure is 67.6 percent, per Pro Football Focus, which is good for sixth in the league. This is significant considering the offensive line has struggled at times to protect him.

Some of the advanced stats don’t love Smith’s body of work. ESPN’s QBR has Smith 25th, and Pro-Football-Reference.com’s adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) has him 26th, but both somehow criminally underrate his impact.

Smith currently ranks ninth in Football Outsiders’ DVOA statistic, which attempts to calculate value per play over average, and 11th in their DYAR statistic, which attempts to calculate total value relative to a replacement-level player. Per their measurements, Smith is roughly a top-10 quarterback so far.

Stat	Value	Rank
QBR	51.7	25
DVOA	7.20%	9
DYAR	243	11
ANY/A	5.93	26
EPA/P	0.21	10 (T)
WPA/G	0.21	8 (T)
Success Rate	50.6	13

According to Advanced Football Analytics, Smith is tied for 10th in win probability added per game, tied for eighth in expected points per play and 13th in success rate. These statistics again put Smith roughly in the top 10 of all quarterbacks.

Smith is the 10th highest-paid quarterback by yearly average, according to spotrac.com, but a few quarterbacks will surely leapfrog him by next year. Smith will always have detractors, but at least by many measurements, Smith is justifying his big contract.

Smith’s play is a big reason the Chiefs are 3-3 and haven’t taken as big a step back in 2014 as seemingly everyone expected after bouncing back in 2013 to win 11 games. The Chiefs have improved from 19th in plays per drive to ninth, from 24th in yards per drive to 12th and from 19th in points per drive to 10th. Considering they are starting drives considerably deeper in their own end than last season, the improvements are significant.

Year	Plays/Drive	Yards/Drive	Start on Own	Points/Drive
2014	6.2	31.6	27.6	2.13
2014 Rank	9	12	15 (T)	10
2013	5.4	27.3	33.6	1.79
2013 Rank	19 (T)	24	1	19

The only weapon the Chiefs really added on offense was tight end Travis Kelce, who is looking more and more like Rob Gronkowski of the New England Patriots every week. Kelce’s production is a testament to Smith’s ability to get the ball into the hands of his playmakers when the coaching staff does the right thing and puts them on the field.

Kelce currently leads all qualifying tight ends in yards per route run, according to Pro Football Focus. He has gained 204 of his 307 receiving yards after the catch, by far the most of any tight end with at least 15 targets.

Smith has not only justified his contract so far in 2014, but he has gotten his Chiefs in position to make some noise in the AFC. According to Pro-Football-Reference.com’s simple rating system, the Chiefs are actually the third-best team in the league. Although Football Outsiders isn’t as bullish, they do have the Chiefs 14th in DVOA and ninth in their early-season DAVE statistic.

The next three games are against the 2-4 St. Louis Rams, 1-6 New York Jets and the 4-3 Buffalo Bills down to their third-string running back, so the Chiefs have an opportunity to enter the AFC playoff picture. The Chiefs also get two games against the 0-6 Oakland Raiders, and both the Denver Broncos and San Diego Chargers have to come to Kansas City next time around.

The Chiefs also get the Broncos on extra rest after playing a Thursday night game against the Raiders on November 20. Even the vaunted Seattle Seahawks have to come to Kansas City in a few weeks, and they are currently 1-2 on the road.

If Smith can continue his efficient playmaking for the duration of the season, the Chiefs have a real chance to get back to the playoffs. Considering the projections headed into the season for both Smith and the Chiefs, that would be quite an accomplishment.

Unless otherwise noted, all statistics via Pro-Football-Reference.com.