Why Nikola Vucevic's Contract Extension Is a Bargain for Orlando Magic
The Orlando Magic just locked up a rising 7-footer who has been consistently productive to date and has substantial room to grow going forward.
Normally, that process involves smashing piggy banks and digging through couch cushions to make the contract offer as rich as possible. The Magic, relatively speaking, actually managed to secure Nikola Vucevic at a bargain rate.
News of the extension broke courtesy of the Orlando Sentinel's Josh Robbins:
Marc J. Spears of Yahoo Sports and USA Today's Jeff Zillgitt then chimed in with the contract particulars:
If the price seems a bit steep—if the deal reaches $53 million, it would pay him an average annual salary of nearly $13.3 million—you either haven't tracked his development or haven't kept an eye on this market. Based on what he has done and what has happened around him, this contract looks solid now and will only become more valuable with time.
Acquired by the Magic as part of the 2012 four-team trade that sent Dwight Howard to the Los Angeles Lakers, Vucevic has held the center spot in Orlando's starting lineup since his arrival. During that stretch, he's been one of only three players—along with perennial All-Stars Howard and Kevin Love—to average at least 13 points and 11 rebounds, per Basketball-Reference.com.
His player efficiency rating has climbed during each of his seasons in Orlando (career-high 18.8 in 2013-14), and his preseason performance suggests another leap could be coming soon. Through five games of the exhibition slate, he has put up 15.2 points, 7.4 rebounds and 1.2 blocks in only 26.2 minutes a night. Extrapolate those numbers to a per-36-minute scale, and they climb to 20.9, 10.2 and 1.6, respectively.
"I think Nik is growing up," Magic coach Jacque Vaughn said, per Robbins. "He's maturing. He's older. He's wiser. He's played these guys more than a few times now, and that's learning the league. You learn your position. You're going to face these guys, hopefully, for a long time."
Vucevic doesn't have a lot of flash to his game. Add that to the fact the Magic have gone just 43-121 during his tenure, and it's no surprise his name makes barely a blip on the basketball radar.
He doesn't have to be a household name to justify—or even outperform—his contract, though. Not when his foundation of skills to build on is as deep as it is, and definitely not when those tools mesh so well with Orlando's blueprint.
The Magic have young guards who can thrive in the pick-and-roll, a host of slashers who need space cleared under the basket and an army of athletes who can dazzle in the open court. Not only is Vucevic equipped to share the floor with those types of players, he's armed with the arsenal needed to elevate them, as well.
"He's a good mid-range shooter and he's a capable passer out of the high post," Robbins wrote. "He also runs the court well, which should be an asset to the Magic as they attempt to push the ball upcourt in transition."
Vucevic isn't just a good mid-range shooter, he's a great one. Of the 65 players to attempt at least 250 such shots last season, he had the 14th-highest conversion rate (44.5), per NBA.com, putting him ahead of the likes of Kevin Durant (44.4), Carmelo Anthony (44.3) and LaMarcus Aldridge (42.2).
With Victor Oladipo, Elfrid Payton, Aaron Gordon and Maurice Harkless all poised to do damage above the rim, Vucevic's ability to keep defenders away from it will be a key ingredient of Vaughn's offensive recipe. Throw in Vucevic's activity on the glass, fluid footwork and high basketball IQ, and it's easy to see how the Magic could value him as an eight-figure-salary player right now.
Of course, the market had already not-very-subtly hinted that a substantial raise was coming for Vucevic.
The 2013 offseason yielded contract extensions to three blossoming bigs: DeMarcus Cousins (Sacramento Kings), Derrick Favors (Utah Jazz) and Larry Sanders (Milwaukee Bucks). Restricted free agent Nikola Pekovic also put pen to paper on a mammoth-sized deal with the Minnesota Timberwolves.
Among these bigs, Cousins is really on a level of his own, and he took home by far the biggest deal (four years, $62 million) accordingly. Compared to these other post players, though, Vucevic's production and pay both fall comfortably in line with the big-man market.
| Nikola Vucevic | 4 yrs, $53 mil | 14.2 | 50.7 | 11.0 | 0.8 | 18.8 |
| Derrick Favors | 4 yrs, $49 mil | 13.3 | 52.2 | 8.7 | 1.5 | 19.0 |
| Nikola Pekovic | 5 yrs, $60 mil | 17.5 | 54.1 | 8.7 | 0.4 | 20.7 |
| Larry Sanders | 4 yrs, $44 mil | 7.7 | 46.9 | 7.2 | 1.7 | 14.0 |
None of these four players are perfect. Favors and Sanders have their limitations at the offensive end; Vucevic and Pekovic fight their demons at the opposite side.
However, all four bring enough to the table that they could command such a contract. And Vucevic's might be the best value of them all given the wild spending we've seen this summer and what we now know about the mountain of money secured by the league in its new broadcasting contracts.
Ben Golliver of Sports Illustrated explained how the value of Vucevic's deal will change for the better in the coming seasons:
"The $13.3 million average annual salary must be judged against a projected $80-90 million salary cap, as opposed to this year's $63 million cap figure. Proportionally, a $13.3 million salary in an $85 million salary cap system is equivalent to a $9.9 million salary this season. By that standard, Vucevic could be viewed as a bargain by the extension's end, assuming he maintains good health, continues to develop as a defender and finds his place in an offense that may be dominated by young guards Elfrid Payton and Victor Oladipo, and plays a role in improving Orlando's fortunes.
"
In other words, no matter how you feel about this deal now, you're going to like it more down the line.
"If he improves, he'd be worth this even under the current CBA," wrote CBS Sports' Matt Moore. "And if not, the TV deal makes this good value."
The Magic protected themselves against risk.
They protected against the risk that another team would over-inflate Vucevic's value in restricted free agency next summer, or that the big guy would boost his number on his own with a strong 2014-15 season. They locked up a young, skilled player with size before the broadcasting deal could push that type of player into an even higher tax bracket.
If Vucevic never becomes more than a walking double-double, the market has long ago determined that such a player is worth this type of investment. If he becomes a better defender and adds to his offensive repertoire—polishing his post game or expanding his range beyond the three-point arc—he could become one of the league's better bargains.
At worst, Orlando avoided an overpay. At best, the Magic bought low on a stock that's going to surge in the coming seasons. For as daunting as trips to the negotiating table can be, Orlando should be thrilled with this outcome.
Unless otherwise noted, statistics used courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com.
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