Orlando Magic 2014-15 Season Preview: Roster Breakdown, Win-Loss Prediction
In summer of 2012, the Orlando Magic lost a franchise center to Los Angeles for the second time in 15 years. We’ll say this about the organization: It has a knack for bouncing back.
While losing a star is generally crippling to a franchise—consider where LeBron James left the Cleveland Cavaliers when he decamped—the Magic have handled the absence of Dwight Howard remarkably well.
Which is to say: This is a very good, very interesting young roster. They aren’t ready to make any noise quite yet, but it’s fascinating to consider where this tremendously talented group could wind up in a season or two.
Nikola Vucevic, at 23, has developed into a routine double-double threat. Tobias Harris, 22 in July, averaged over 20 points and eight rebounds per 36 minutes after last season's All-Star break.
The No. 2 pick in the 2013 NBA draft, Victor Oladipo, is widely regarded as a budding star, and the organization thinks so highly of 2014 10th-overall pick Elfrid Payton that Oladipo will likely soon be moved to shooting guard to make room for the rookie point guard.
There’s also the tantalizing potential of rookie Aaron Gordon—more on him later—and, given the likelihood this young team struggles this season, whatever other top prospect the franchise adds in the 2015 draft. That’s a heck of a core to build around.
It might not happen this season or the next, but the Magic are a team on the rise. Brighter days are ahead for the group.
1. Biggest Question Mark
How do you solve a problem like Nik Vucevic? Orlando is in a curious conundrum with the big man.
The center who came over from the Philadelphia 76ers as part of the Dwight Howard trade has developed into a fine post player—and that’s the problem: Now they have to pay him.
Vuc, as mentioned above, is a fine rebounder with some post moves and an underrated mid-range game. As Grantland’s Zach Lowe recently argued, the Montenegrin could be in for a huge payday:
"True starting centers get paid, and if Vucevic gets to free agency next summer after another strong season, there’s an outside chance some team desperate for size will toss a max offer sheet at him. I mean, JaVale McGee is making $11 million for being tall and goofy. Vucevic can actually play.
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If the Magic want to keep him, they might have to shell out. But it’s unclear if Vuc is currently effective enough to warrant that kind of outlay.
He’s a mediocre defensive player with questionable instincts and poor footwork. As Lowe added: "Vucevic can be a little slow rotating from the weak side as a helper; per NBA.com, opponents shot 56.6 percent on close shots with Vucevic near the basket, an ugly number."
So there you have it. The Magic have a very effective, flawed player on whom they’ll have to make a bet at some point. It would be a shame to watch a player with Vucevic’s skills walk, but Orlando might not be left with much of a choice. Stay tuned.
2. Best Five
PG: Elfrid Payton
SG: Victor Oladipo
SF: Tobias Harris
PF: Aaron Gordon
C: Nikola Vucevic
Okay. There are some problems with this lineup. Namely, there’s not much shooting here.
Vucevic is the only member of this hypothetical group who’s even an above-average shooter at his position—but that could change. Tobias Harris has shown some promise from the perimeter. According to Basketball-Reference.com, he connected on 42 percent of his attempts from 10-16 feet and 40.9 percent from 16-23.
But, man, this is an athletic group, and one that, even with the liability Vuc poses on that end, could be downright fierce defensively. Gordon profiles as an instantly disruptive defender, while Oladipo is moving swiftly in that direction.
Admittedly, this is a lineup the Magic are unlikely to lean on too much, but imagine how much fun it would be. A guy can dream.
3. Youth Movement
Aaron Gordon is going to be so much fun to watch. He won’t be the best rookie in this class, but he’s a good bet to be the one who makes the most eye-popping plays.
Though his college production wasn’t outstanding—Gordon averaged 12.4 points on 49.5 shooting with eight rebounds during his lone season at Arizona—his tools are spectacular.
He’s an alley-oop machine with crazy leaping ability and great speed. And on the defensive end, he was tremendous: As an 18-year-old freshman he guarded all five positions and established himself as one of the most versatile defenders in the NCAA.
4. Team Award Predictions
Best Offensive Weapon: Tobias Harris
The forward picked up his game as last season stretched on, averaging 17.9 points a game on better than 50 percent shooting in April. With Arron Afflalo in Denver, he should get an opportunity to assume an even larger offensive role in 2014-15. Expect him to take full advantage.
Best Defensive Stopper: Aaron Gordon
He might immediately become one of the 25 best defenders in the NBA. And he’s 19. Aaron Gordon is going to be a lot of fun.
Player Set to Make the Biggest Leap: Victor Oladipo
Oladipo is dealing with a strained MCL that could cause him to miss the season opener, but he’s optimistic that he’ll be back to full strength soon. "It feels a lot better," Oladipo told Josh Robbins of the Orlando Sentinel. "It's a day-by-day process. A sprained MCL is kind of like a scab. You've just got to let it heal. That's pretty much what I'm doing.”
When he makes his eventual return, expect big things from the second-year guard. Oladipo will never be a superstar, but he’s poised to develop into an above-average starter on both ends of the floor. That transformation starts now.
The “What is That Guy Doing Here?” Guy: Ben Gordon
Ben Gordon is 31 years old and in the last two seasons shot 40.8 and 34.3 percent from the floor for the Charlotte Bobcats. Shooting is the thing that Ben Gordon does best. It’s unclear what the Magic see in him.
5. When the Dust Settles...
The Magic should improve on 2013-14—Channing Frye was a smart addition, and Oladipo seems poised to continue to grow—but are still too young and raw to do much. Expect a 28-54 record from this bunch and a 12th-place finish in the Eastern Conference.
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