Golden State Warriors Ready to Tear Through Powerful Western Conference
Thanks to equal parts smarter play, organic growth and surprising opportunity, the Golden State Warriors are engineering a paradigm shift out West.
If the Dubs' preseason performance is any indication, this is going to be a different team—and the conversation surrounding the squad won't sound like it has in years past.
System Reboot
Golden State blitzed its first four exhibition opponents with startling ball movement, all-angles attacks and previously unseen offensive fluidity.
Top-down systemic overhauls are supposed to take longer than a few weeks of training camp to implement. Not so with new head coach Steve Kerr's Warriors.
Sure, the Dubs dropped their next two preseason tilts. But one came on the second night of a back-to-back and the other featured precisely zero combined minutes from Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson. Perhaps this is giving Kerr and his staff too much credit, but after those first four games, Golden State had already proved everything it needed to in the preseason.
Coasting toward the season opener, hoping for full health became the only real aim.
Thanks largely to those first four games, Golden State leads all NBA teams in preseason true shooting percentage and effective field-goal percentage.
Though there's no official stat for this, I'll bet anything the Warriors also lead the league in wide-open shots for Thompson and Curry, which probably means they also lead in another unofficial category: number of times the opposing bench says to itself, "Oh, crap."
Golden State ranks second in the preseason in assist percentage at just over 70 percent. Last year, it registered assists on only 59 percent of its made field-goals, per NBA.com, and ranked dead last in passes per game.
The torrential onrush of good looks is a direct result of Kerr's hybrid scheme, which draws inspiration from the modern San Antonio Spurs, triangle-era Chicago Bulls and seven-seconds-or-less Phoenix Suns.
Saying a basketball offense melds those three elements is like a chef boasting he'll mix filet mignon, tiramisu and Johnnie Walker Blue Label.
Separately: yes, please.
Together: impossible.
Yet here we are, and the Warriors offense is delicious—easily palatable enough to rank among the NBA's top five in efficiency over a full season. Right now, the team's preseason offensive rating is 108.5, third in the league, despite limiting minutes for key figures and playing without Shaun Livingston.
To hear Kerr tell it, per Ethan Sherwood Strauss of ESPN.com, what's happening isn't complicated:
"You take whatever talent you have. What we have is a great shooting backcourt and excellent passing bigs, so that’s why you see us doing what we’re doing. A lot of dribble handoffs, a lot of moving and cutting, because we know we have the skill to move the ball around.
"
Assuming the defense former coach Mark Jackson helped build won't fall apart entirely—it won't, as Ron Adams is the new de facto defensive coordinator and was integral in building Tom Thibodeau's defense—the Dubs now profile statistically as a championship contender.
Flourishing Talent
If you haven't been scrutinizing the preseason, first of all, congratulations. You lead a healthy, balanced life. Second, you're probably unaware of the terrifying leaps Thompson's game has taken.
Owing partly to a system that frees him up more than ever, as well as a visible spike in confidence, the Warriors' second option is stretching the bounds of perimeter dominance. He's averaging 21.6 points per game in just over 25 minutes per contest while shooting an absurd 53.6 percent from the field and 58.6 percent from long distance.
He's not alone.
Andrew Bogut is thriving as an offensive hub, flashing the elite passing touch that Jackson's offense marginalized. When he gets the ball at the elbows, guards and wings whirl around the floor in a blur, using Bogut for brush screens, threatening defenses with handoffs and cutting to the hoop for easy buckets.
Bogut leads all centers with 3.6 assists per game in the preseason, despite playing under 20 minutes per contest.
The big Aussie's involvement, more than anything else, is the key difference in Golden State's 2014-15 offense: Everybody is now a weapon.
In addition to steps forward for Thompson and Bogut, the bench is deeper. Draymond Green has cut more weight, and his three-point shot is improved enough to make him a viable stretch 4. Add in Livingston and Brandon Rush, plus the imminent return of Festus Ezeli, and you've got quality NBA players way down the depth chart.
It says a lot that Golden State hardly needs anything from Harrison Barnes this season.
A Window? A Window.
In most other years, we'd stop the analysis here, saying simply that for all of the Warriors' many seeming improvements, the conference is simply too tough to suggest a major Dubs breakthrough.
And the West is tough. That never seems to change.
Nonetheless, there's a sense of vulnerability in the conference that feels new. Maybe it's because the Warriors are better equipped to take advantage of weakness than ever before, or perhaps this is another case of the preseason serving its purpose as a time to talk oneself into almost anything.
But consider this: The Oklahoma City Thunder will be without Kevin Durant for at least a few weeks of the regular season, and we can't be sure what his long-term prognosis will be.
The Spurs' astounding run has to end sometime, and we all know they're not fans of putting together dominant back-to-back seasons. They've never repeated as champions.
The Los Angeles Clippers, whom the Warriors beat in L.A. to open the preseason, needed seven games to escape the first round last year despite the fact that Golden State didn't have Bogut for the entire series.
You can fairly say the Clips still have the upper hand in this rivalry by virtue of their better record last year—as well as the playoff win—but you can't say their advantage is a big one.
For what it's worth, these preseason Warriors look better than the Clippers right now.
The West isn't necessarily there for the taking, but it's a little more available than it's been in the recent past. The Warriors' window is now.
Why Now?
The ultimate difference is this: The last couple of relatively successful Warriors seasons began with a set of specific conditions—conditions that acknowledged the Dubs' talent but also made the team's fate contingent on things breaking right.
The Warriors will make the playoffs if...
Golden State can secure a top-four seed if...
And then you'd list off all the various long-shot things the Dubs needed to reach their goal, just like you would with any pretty good, sub-contending team.
Now, the Warriors are a complete outfit. Elite talent on both ends, depth and a coaching staff that revamped the offense mean Golden State is no longer beholden to ifs.
The analysis is different this time. The presumption has flipped. The Dubs, right this second, look better than any team in their conference.
It's now fair to say, The Warriors will win the West unless...
Whoa.
Unless otherwise noted, statistics courtesy of RealGM.
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