Kelly Olynyk's Destiny Will Be Determined from Downtown
The Boston Celtics are starved for three-point shooting, which makes everything about Kelly Olynyk's offensive skill set all the more exciting. Several key players on the team possess limited shooting range, which will hurt Boston's spacing and prevent the team from running a productive offense.
Olynyk is not one of those players. Instead, the second-year 7-footer has the potential to become one of the best shooting centers in the league. It’s a tool so impressive that it almost drowns out his other weaknesses. It may also transform him from a trade chip to a legitimate building block, an integral part of Boston's future.
Knocking down outside shots is obviously important, but so is "where" those shots come from. The corner three is a tremendous weapon, and its use among bigs throughout the league is growing by the season. Pau Gasol and Serge Ibaka are two notable bigs to evolve their shot placement over the past couple years, but others—like LaMarcus Aldridge and Enes Kanter—will soon join them. (This is all old hat for Chris Bosh, who's now prolific throughout the perimeter.)
Spacing a defender all the way to the corner is a luxury, but it isn’t quite as valuable as doing so above the break. When it's a center that's shooting the ball, it's here that defenses have so much more ground to cover, and offenses are able to stretch previously restricted boundaries on the floor.
Centers who can knock down threes over here are more involved in the offense. They can set screens for high pick-and-rolls, initiate offense with a quick dribble hand-off or, with the advantage of having so many more angles to work with, attack the defense themselves with a pass or drive.
What makes Olynyk special is his ability to knock down these threes, too. Here's his shot chart from last season. He was league average above the break:
According to NBA.com, seven centers attempted more three-pointers above the break, and Olynyk was more accurate than four of them.
When he has the ball behind the three-point line—either on the wing or in front of midcourt—it inverts how defenses typically operate. An opposing center needs to respect Olynyk’s range and stray from the paint, creating a gaping hole in the lane that allows cutters to knife their way towards the basket. Driving and passing lanes loosen dramatically.
The effect is even more threatening when Olynyk doesn’t have the ball. Say Rajon Rondo and Jeff Green are running a pick-and-roll on the right side of the court, while Olynyk is just hanging out on the left wing. The defensive rotation to stop Rondo and Green would normally come from a lumbering big on the weak side. But if that player is out above the elbow sticking to Olynyk, the room Rondo and Green have to operate is that much wider.
In five preseason games, Olynyk has made half of his threes, attempting a robust 3.6 per 27.6 minutes. A majority of these shots have come above the break, wide open against defenses that are willing to let Olynyk fire away.
That type of accuracy isn't sustainable, especially with such a high volume. But Olynyk's value comes as someone capable of making life easier for others. When defenders begin swarming Olynyk like moths to a light (which they eventually will), opportunities will arise elsewhere on the floor. Especially if Olynyk can consistently make the right decision in the face of a close out.
Olynyk doesn't finish on this particular play, but it's important to note how he's able to put the ball on the floor and create offense when a defender solely focuses on taking away the three ball. Here's Olynyk's teammate, Avery Bradley, speaking about the impact Boston's second-year big should have this season (via The Boston Globe's Gary Washburn):
"[Olynyk] can handle the ball, he’s very smart, he can pass the ball, shoot the ball, create for others. He’s a good player. It’s going to make it hard for other teams to guard us because they not only have to guard the guy with the ball, especially when Rondo gets back. You’re going to have Sully popping [off screens], Kelly popping. We’re just going to spread people out. It’s just going to open up everything.
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Olynyk will start at center for the Celtics this season, but it's not his natural position. He can't protect the rim as a full-time starter, and he won't provide the type of impact on the glass for 30-plus minutes that teams need from frontcourt contributors.
What he can do is flatten out defensive schemes and create driving lanes either for himself or others. Olynyk has the potential to be an incredibly useful and rare weapon this season; it's a skill set any offense in the league would love to add.
All statistics are courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com or NBA.com unless otherwise noted.
Michael Pina covers the NBA for Bleacher Report, Sports on Earth, Fox Sports and elsewhere. Follow him on Twitter @MichaelVPina.
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