Tom Brady's Fantasy Trade Value, Updated Outlook Heading into Week 7
If you are a firm believer in the "buy low, sell high" mentality in fantasy football, then it is absolutely time for you to trade Tom Brady.
Brady’s value is as high as it’s been all season after two straight New England Patriots victories. Brady went 27-of-37 for a head-turning 361 passing yards and four touchdowns in a critical divisional showdown with the Buffalo Bills and eviscerated a solid Cincinnati Bengals defense to the tune of 23-of-35 passing for 292 yards and two touchdowns the week before.
Perhaps most importantly, Brady did not throw a pick in either game.
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Brady became the fifth player in NFL history with 60 career 300-yard games with his performance against Buffalo. He was more interested in praising the opponent afterward, though, according to The Associated Press (h/t ESPN.com).
"I'm not sure really, historically. I have a lot of respect for this team. They play hard every time we play them. I think we just come out on the winning end. It's good to be on the winning end," he said.
Basically, Brady has looked like the Brady who earned himself future Hall of Fame status and multiple Super Bowl rings in the past.
Ironically, it wasn’t that long ago that the whole football world , including fantasy owners, seemingly gave up on Brady.
In a blowout loss against the Kansas City Chiefs, he finished 14-of-23 for 159 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions. He also only put 16 points on the board against the lowly Oakland Raiders the game before that.
Again, if we are working under that "buy low, sell high" mentality, that would have been the perfect time to trade for Brady in your fantasy league. Instead, you probably assumed he was over the hill, as many people did.
One reason Brady’s fantasy value has risen from the dead is the reemergence of his elite target, Rob Gronkowski.
Gronkowski has a combined 194 receiving yards and a touchdown in his past two games and has four touchdown catches on the year.
He is Brady’s security blanket and will help the quarterback remain among the league’s best all season.
What’s more, the Patriots will likely rely more on the passing attack than ever before in this season because of this update, via Mike Reiss of ESPN Boston:
Stevan Ridley is a major loss for the Patriots, but it simply means more throwing opportunities for Brady. More throws mean more fantasy points for your team.
New England’s Week 7 opponent is the solid but not spectacular New York Jets, whose secondary ranks 15th in the NFL at 235 passing yards allowed per game.
However, in games against the Jets, Peyton Manning threw for 237 yards and three touchdowns, Philip Rivers threw for 288 passing yards and three touchdowns, Matt Stafford finished with 293 passing yards and two touchdowns, Jay Cutler had 225 passing yards and two touchdowns and Aaron Rodgers finished with 346 passing yards and three touchdowns.
These quarterbacks all put up impressive numbers even though their teams had second-half leads and were likely looking to run some clock—especially in the case of Rivers.
The bottom line is this Jets secondary is very beatable and Brady is on a roll. His 2014 resurgence should continue on Thursday.
The easy answer with Brady is to trade him now and get all you can for him.
If there is someone in your league willing to give up an elite running back or even wide receiver, then perhaps you should pull the trigger, but the thought here is that Brady will continue to put up big numbers.
With Ridley injured, New England will throw the ball more often, and it still plays a number of vulnerable secondaries in the Chicago Bears, Jets (twice), Buffalo Bills and Green Bay Packers, among others.
There are plenty of opportunities for Brady to put up big numbers.
Brady will not quite be in the same class as Manning, Rodgers or even Rivers in terms of fantasy football this season, but he is worth holding on to as he continues to turn his season around.
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