NLCS 2014: Step-by-Step Guide for San Francisco Giants to Win the Series

The San Francisco Giants and St. Louis Cardinals will face off in Game 1 of the National League Championship Series on Saturday in a battle of two of baseball’s most successful franchises.

The Giants have continued their strange run of strong surges through the playoffs in even years, beating the Pittsburgh Pirates in the NL Wild Card game and stomping out the Washington Nationals in the NLDS. The Cardinals, meanwhile, continued their tradition of success in the NL East, beating the dangerous Los Angeles Dodgers in four games in their NLDS battle.

Thus the NLCS presents us with a matchup of the National League’s last two World Series representatives and promises to feature some excellent baseball. Both squads feature a few stars on offense, outstanding starting pitching, flame-throwing relievers and interesting mixes of young up-and-comers and cagey veterans. Neither team serves as much of a threat on the bases or as an explosive offensive club.

How can the Giants knock off the Senior Circuit’s reigning champs, and what steps must they follow to take down such evenly matched foes? Let’s take a look at three keys to the series for San Francisco.

1. Madison Bumgarner Must Beat Adam Wainwright

The Giants have yet to announce a starter for Game 1 of the NLCS, but the Cardinals have already confirmed that their ace, Adam Wainwright, will take the hill on Saturday. Even considering a Saturday start would see Madison Bumgarner pitching on short rest, though, it would make a ton of sense for the baseball world to be treated to a Bumgarner vs. Wainwright bout.

Bumgarner, of course, has been magnificent in the postseason thus far. The left-hander threw a nine-inning, 10-strikeout masterpiece to shut down the Pirates in the NL Wild Card game, then held the Nationals to two earned runs over seven innings in his NLDS start. A throwing error marred the 25-year-old’s performance, but his pitching was dominant once again.

That didn’t come as a surprise to anyone who watched Bumgarner in the regular season, as he pitched to a 2.98 ERA in 217.1 innings, putting up the strongest K/9 (9.1) and lowest BB/9 (1.8) of his career. He is a legitimate ace.

Wainwright, of course, was less successful in his lone postseason start. The veteran right-hander gave up six earned runs in 4.1 innings against the Dodgers, serving up 11 hits including a home run. For a pitcher who owned a 2.38 ERA through 227 innings in the regular season, it was quite a disappointing performance.

Under normal circumstances, it would be easy to write off Wainwright’s dud and project excellence moving forward. But according to Buster Olney of ESPN.com (subscription required), among others, something is wrong with Wainwright, even if the Cardinals won’t admit it.

“The Cardinals aren't saying exactly what's going on with their perennial Cy Young candidate, but something is,” Olney wrote. “That's at least part of the reason that manager Mike Matheny didn't consider bringing him back to pitch Game 4 against Clayton Kershaw on short rest.”

Alex Gallardo/Associated Press

If Wainwright is less than 100 percent physically, the Giants need to smell the blood in the water and use their ace to stamp out one of the Cardinals’ key postseason pieces. St. Louis still has a solid rotation behind Wainwright, with Lance Lynn, John Lackey and Shelby Miller, but the Giants won’t find those arms as formidable as the Cards’ Cy Young candidate.

2. Keep Matt Carpenter off the Bases

Carpenter may not be your average leadoff hitter in that he doesn’t have much speed and, at least in 2014, didn’t hit for a terrific average. But the 28-year-old third baseman boasts an excellent walk rate, has barrell-to-ball ability and enough pop in his swing to keep pitchers honest, all of which makes him quite the threat atop the St. Louis order.

Still, given some of the sluggers who follow him in the lineup, you wouldn’t think limiting Carpenter would be key. But after an NLDS against the Dodgers that saw Carpenter hit .375 with three homers and seven RBI, it’s clear that the Giants must focus on keeping him off the bases.

As Olney wrote, others in baseball have noticed that Carpenter seems to excel on the biggest stage:

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Matheny and some of the Dodgers players talked about Carpenter's ability to focus in moments of greater intensity, such as the extended at-bats he has had against Kershaw the past couple of postseasons. The greater the stress, it seems, the better he performs, and now it's up to the Giants to try to deal with that.

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The Cardinals had a pedestrian offensive season as a unit in 2014, but Carpenter had the third-best season of any of their players by Weighted Runs Created plus (wRC+) according to FanGraphs, coming in at 117. That trailed only Matt Holliday and Jhonny Peralta among his teammates and was good for the eighth-best mark among qualified third basemen.

Carpenter posted the highest walk rate of his career, scored 99 runs during a season in which St. Louis only scored 619 all together and was tied for 22nd in the majors in pitches per plate appearance this postseason with an even 4.0, per ESPN. He’s a major offensive threat, even if he’s not the first name you fear when you see the Cardinals lineup.

Preventing Carpenter from wreaking havoc will be a major challenge for the Giants. While batter-vs.-pitcher stats are of dubious predictive value, it’s worth noting that Carpenter has hit well against Bumgarner and Vogelsong in the past and has even had success against bullpen lefties Jeremy Affeldt and Javier Lopez.

The Cardinals had the second-fewest homers in the regular season with just 105 but were 14th in doubles and 10th in OBP. Keeping Carpenter off the bases takes away a major element of what the Cards do best and can help limit the occasional homer from Holliday, Matt Adams or Peralta to solo shots rather than game-changing hits.

3. Play the Matchups with the Bullpen

The Cardinals project to be tough to beat in part because of their balanced lineup. St. Louis has seven right-handed hitters and six left-handed hitters on their postseason roster, and Mike Matheny does a nice job of weaving lefties and righties throughout the batting order.

In fact, the Cardinals hit .254/.330/.388 against left-handed pitching this season and .252/.317/.363 against right-handers. That diversity and the lack of a platoon split can make it tough for opposing managers in late innings, as lefty and righty specialists can be rendered moot in short order.

But that doesn’t mean that the Giants can shy away from one of their greatest strengths in their bevy of above-average relievers. San Francisco boasted the fifth-best bullpen ERA in the majors this season at 3.01 and was first in batting average against at .217.

Pablo Martinez Monsivais/Associated Press

Relievers Jeremy Affeldt, Jean Machi and Santiago Casilla all boasted ERAs south of 3.00 during the regular season, and Javier Lopez trailed closely behind at 3.11. New reliever Hunter Strickland has been quite good in a small sample size, too, and Sergio Romo has a history of pitching well out of the bullpen, even if he suffered a down year in 2014.

It will be up to Bruce Bochy to mix and match his strong crew of relievers against the heart of the Cardinals order, sending righties like Strickland and Machi against Holliday and Peralta and saving lefties Affeldt and Lopez for Carpenter and Adams, among others.

Fortunately for San Francisco, the Cardinals’ only significant bench bat is Oscar Taveras, so Matheney may not be able to counter Bochy effectively if the Giants’ manager is savvy with his bullpen moves.