Despite Risks, J.J. Hardy Extension Is Win-Win for Both Sides

On the eve of their first American League Championship Series since 1997, the Baltimore Orioles have decided to get a head start on their offseason to-do list.

And they've done so with a solid deal that, despite some risk for both sides, makes enough sense for everyone to be worth it.

The news, according to Ken Rosenthal of FoxSports.com, is that the Orioles have agreed to a contract extension with veteran shortstop J.J. Hardy:

A short while later, MLB.com's Brittany Ghiroli also reported that a deal is indeed in place.

Assuming Rosenthal's figures are accurate, Hardy is getting a decent raise. The 2014 season was the last of a three-year, $22.5 million contract, so he's going from making $7.5 million per year to over $10 million per year.

Maybe that sounds like too much money, but it's really no more than market value.

Following his age-31 season, Hardy was about to enter an open market that just gave Jhonny Peralta a four-year, $53 million contract following his own age-31 season even despite a 50-game suspension linked to performance-enhancing drugs.

Granted, there are concerning differences between Peralta then and Hardy now.

Chief among those is that Hardy did not have a strong season at the plate in 2014. His .268 average and .309 on-base percentage were in line with his career norms, but he hit only nine home runs and slugged just .372. Disappointing stuff for a guy who had hit at least 20 homers in each of the three prior seasons.

Then there's the matter of Hardy's health. He had problems with back spasms throughout the year and was ultimately limited to just 141 games.

This is where Hardy's age doesn't look so good. Players don't tend to get healthier as they get deeper into their 30s, after all, and they've also been known to get less powerful.

As such, FanGraphs' David Cameron hit the nail on the head here:

That they are, but here's the thing about that: They're investing their money in a darn good asset.

As you might have heard, Hardy's defense at shortstop is very good. Via FanGraphs, here's how he's done in the eyes of Ultimate Zone Rating and Defensive Runs Saved in an Orioles uniform:

Year	UZR	DRS
2011	8.8	8
2012	12.4	18
2013	6	8
2014	13.9	10
Total	41.1	44

Over the last four years, no American League shortstop has racked up more UZR or DRS than Hardy. Defensively, he's the best the AL has at short.

And don't underestimate the value of that. Shortstop is an extremely important defensive position, and Hardy's 2014 season shows how much excellent defense at short can make up for subpar offense.

Though Hardy's power and games played took a tumble, FanGraphs says he was worth 3.4 wins above replacement in 2014. He had the exact same WAR in a 25-homer season in 2013, and in both cases, he provided close to $20 million worth of value.

Now, aging has been known to hurt defense too. But there's more than a reasonable chance that Hardy could be an exception to that rule.

Here, this highlight does a good job of showing what Hardy's working with on defense:

This is what good plays by Hardy tend to look like. The strong, accurate arm he shows off at the end is probably his most well-known asset. Before that was him showing off his unique brand of range. 

As Hardy himself put it to David Laurila of FanGraphs in 2012:

"

I've always felt that I read the ball well and get good jumps, because even though the speed isn't there, I get to a lot of balls. I read swing path, the pitch — basically, I look in the zone. I see the ball out of the corner of my eye, see their swing, and read it that way. It's kind of hard to describe. I guess it's more of an instinct thing.

"

What makes all this appealing from an age perspective is how, as he apparently well knows, there's no explosive athleticism involved. That bodes well, as it essentially means he can already play plus defense without something that age tends to ruin for a lot of shortstops.

As such, even keeping Hardy around just for his defense at a rate of around $10 million a year could work out just fine for the Orioles. And that's without considering two other benefits of the deal:

1. Manny Machado gets to stay at third base, which can only help his knees stay healthy in the long term.
2. Since WFAN's Sweeny Murti is probably right in thinking the New York Yankees would have considered Hardy as a replacement for Derek Jeter, the Orioles just denied the enemy.

But what about Hardy himself?

Well, at the absolute least, there's the fact that he's getting a raise over what he had been making. That's not a small victory.

But perhaps more importantly, Hardy is avoiding what could have been a disastrous time on the open market.

With the value of a qualifying offer going up to $15.3 million, it's questionable whether the Orioles would have made one to Hardy at season's end. If they did and he chose to accept it, they'd have been forced to double his 2014 salary for the 2015 season.

Paul Sancya/Associated Press

It is, however, conceivable that the Orioles could have made Hardy a qualifying offer knowing that he would have been too tempted to seek a Peralta-sized contract (perhaps from the Yankees) to accept it. And though Hardy could have taken his chances on the idea, maybe he would have found himself in Stephen Drew's shoes instead.

You'll recall that even after coming off a strong offensive and defensive season at age 30 in 2013, Drew didn't get a $50 million deal. He instead got a long waiting period that didn't end until the Boston Red Sox gave him a $10 million contract in May. That's roughly $4 million less than what he could have gotten had he accepted Boston's qualifying offer.

It shouldn't be taken as a given that Hardy would have run into the same headache. But perhaps he knew that it was within the realm of possibility. If so, him choosing to take a raise from a team he knows in a town he's called home for four years was hardly the worst choice he could have made.

So let's hand it to Hardy and the Orioles. They made a deal that can be nitpicked, but it's a deal that works reasonably well for both parties.

Now then, about that American League Championship Series...

Note: Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted/linked.  

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