NLCS 2014: Step-by-Step Guide for the Cardinals to Win the Series

For the fourth consecutive season, the St. Louis Cardinals are headed to the National League Championship Series, meaning they're pretty comfortable on baseball's penultimate stage.

Even their opponent is familiar. Two years ago, St. Louis and the San Francisco Giants tangled in the NLCS, with San Francisco prevailing in seven games.

Now, with Game 1 set for Saturday at 8 p.m. ET on Fox, the Cards are out to exact revenge and punch a second straight World Series ticket.

Their experience goes a long way, but the Giants are experienced, too, having won two of the last four Fall Classics.

There is a blueprint, though, for the Cardinals to succeed, and a few key areas where they can flip what should be a tight, competitive series in their favor.

The Cardinals will win the NLCS if...

They Protect Home Field

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The Cardinals were excellent at home this season, going 51-30 at Busch Stadium. San Francisco, though, is an excellent road team.

The Giants went a respectable 43-38 away from AT&T Park in 2014, and dating back to 2012 they have a six-game road-winning streak going in the postseason.

Mark O'Neill of SI.com put it in a pitch for a fake movie we'd totally watch:

"

If you haven’t seen the new flick, playing in various ball parks throughout the major leagues, you should. It’s called Road Warriors IV, starring the San Francisco Giants, and it comes to you beginning the first week in October...This film is the story of a unique group of professional baseball players, who travel around the world demonstrating how it’s done to teams, unfortunately equipped with what one might diplomatically call, insufficient 'guts.'

"

It seems obvious, but if the Cardinals can win the first two games in St. Louis, it would halt the Giants' momentum and slow their road swagger. And it would send the series back to San Francisco with the Cards firmly in control.

Matt Carpenter Stays Hot

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Carpenter hit just eight home runs in the regular season. He's already hit three in the playoffs, including one off Los Angeles Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw.

Overall, the Cards third baseman hit .375 in the National League Division Series with seven RBI.

“This is when it matters. This is when it’s fun," Carpenter told The Associated Press (h/t CBS St. Louis). "I told somebody the other day, I would take this season I had this year and do what I’m doing in the postseason 10 out of 10. That’s why you play. Hopefully, we can keep riding this out.”

Every year, a couple of guys get crazy hot in October and usually carry their teams close to or across the finish line. The Cardinals don't need Carpenter to keep doing his Reggie Jackson impression; they have other offensive weapons.

But it would sure help if he did.

Adam Wainwright Guts It out

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When it comes to the health of your ace's arm, no news is good news. So Cardinals fans surely held their collective breath when word came down that Wainwright is battling "some tendinitis and discomfort around his right elbow," per Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch.

It's an issue that flared up in the regular season as well, and Wainwright pitched through it with excellent results.

As Bleacher Report's Zachary D. Rymer recently argued, the Cards can survive with their No. 1 hurler at less than 100 percent. They have a deep rotation that includes veteran postseason stud John Lackey and an excellent bullpen.

Still, this is troubling. If the worst case occurs and the injury renders Wainwright ineffective or knocks him out of commission entirely, he could well take the Cardinals' season with him.

As of now, Wainwright is scheduled to go in Game 1. But manager Mike Matheny left open the possibility of pushing the All-Star right-hander back. "There’s no question that Waino has been fighting it," Matheny told Goold. "It’s all going to come down to how he feels. The likelihood of him saying ‘I can’t go’ is very slim. But it is a possibility that something might not feel right."

They Keep Gregor Blanco and Joe Panik off the Bases

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The last time the Giants and Cardinals clashed in the NLCS, San Francisco had Angel Pagan and Marco Scutaro setting the table in the top two lineup spots. This year, both are missing in action with back injuries.

In their place, San Francisco has Gregor Blanco and rookie Joe Panik. Both contributed big time down the stretch. And Panik has had a nice postseason, hitting .292 with a triple and two RBI.

Blanco, on the other hand, has hit just .111 with a .200 OBP in the leadoff spot. That's part of the reason San Francisco scored just nine runs in four games against the Washington Nationals.

If the Cards can keep Blanco's bat cold and figure out how to shut down Panik, they can limit RBI opportunities for Buster Posey, Pablo Sandoval and Hunter Pence, the Giants' middle-of-the-order thumpers.

They Win the Battle of the Bullpens

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Of all the assets a team needs for a deep playoff run, a shutdown bullpen might be the most essential. In that respect, the Cardinals and Giants are covered.

San Francisco's relief corps has surrendered just four earned runs in 19.1 innings this postseason. The St. Louis bullpen hasn't been quite as stingy, allowing three runs in 12 innings, but it mostly befuddled the Dodgers' potent bats in the NLDS.

The X-factor here could be a pair of exiled starting pitchers: Michael Wacha on the Cards and Tim Lincecum on the Giants. Neither player pitched in his team's NLDS, but both are interesting weapons.

Lincecum, the two-time Cy Young winner, has lost both velocity and command, though he threw a no-hitter in June. Wacha, meanwhile, won NLCS MVP honors last year as a 22-year-old rookie but missed more than two months this season with a shoulder injury.

Barring an unexpected twist, Lincecum and Wacha won't start in the NLCS. That doesn't mean they can't contribute. In an all-hands-on-deck series, anything can happen.

Just ask Lincecum, who came out of the 'pen in the 2012 postseason and posted a 0.69 ERA and 0.38 WHIP in 13 stellar innings.

There's no guarantee those results will repeat themselves. What is almost certain is that this series will be decided, to some degree, by the 'pens.

They Continue the Power Surge

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The Cardinals were not a home run-happy team in the regular season. In fact, they hit just 105 long balls, fewest in the NL.

So far in the postseason, they've discovered the power of the big fly. 

In its four-game set with the Dodgers, St. Louis launched seven home runs. Carpenter led the way, but Matt Holliday, Matt Adams, Randal Grichuk and Kolten Wong also went deep.

Adams' bomb came in the seventh inning of the deciding Game 4. It was the first home run Adams had hit against a left-hander since July 7. Oh, and that left-hander's name? Clayton Kershaw.

"I don’t think I touched the ground the whole way around the bases," Adams told Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News. 

AT&T Park is the most pitcher-friendly yard in baseball, while Busch Stadium ranks 16th out of 30, per ESPN.com. So it's no sure thing that the timely blasts will keep coming.

In a series where runs figure to be at a premium, though, a few more well-timed dingers could keep St. Louis soaring.

All statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.