Who Is the New World Series Favorite After Wave of Division Series Upsets?
We're less than halfway through the 2014 MLB playoffs, and already it's fair to call this the year of the upset.
In three of the four division series, the underdog prevailed.
No matter who hoists the Commissioner's Trophy at the end of this crazy ride, chances are it will be at least a mild surprise.
So which of the remaining squads—the San Francisco Giants and St. Louis Cardinals in the National League and the Baltimore Orioles and Kansas City Royals in the American League—is most likely to win it all?
Let's take at look at each team—taking into account depth, health and that October intangible, momentum—and pick a favorite.
San Francisco Giants
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It's tough to call a team that's won two of the last four Fall Classics an underdog, but there you go.
Put simply, for much of the season the Giants just didn't look very good.
After going 53-43 in the first half, the Giants managed only a 35-31 mark after the All-Star break. And they limped into the second wild-card spot without their leadoff hitter and offensive spark plug, Angel Pagan, who went down with a back injury.
There's just something about manager Bruce Bochy's team, though—some switch it flips in October.
After pounding the Pittsburgh Pirates in the wild-card playoff, San Francisco rolled into the nation's capital and took two games from the heavily favored Washington Nationals.
After a hiccup in Game 3, the Giants finished off the Nats Tuesday night before the AT&T Park faithful, who were no less appreciative for having seen this all before.
Can the Giants keep it up? They're still without Pagan, though slugging left fielder Michael Morse said he'd be ready to return for the National League Championship Series, per Alex Pavlovic of the San Jose Mercury News.
That's good news, because the San Francisco offense didn't do much against the Nationals, managing just nine runs in four games. And the bench is thin.
The Giants won on the strength of their bullpen—which gave them 10.2 scoreless innings in the 18-inning Game 2 marathon alone—their gutsy starting pitching and their refusal to quit.
"The guys were relentless," Bochy said, per MLB.com's Chris Haft. "They're warriors."
St. Louis Cardinals
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Like the Giants, the Cardinals are plenty familiar with October baseball. In fact, as the two teams meet in the NLCS, we're guaranteed a fifth straight season with either St. Louis or San Francisco representing the NL in the World Series.
For the second consecutive season, the Cardinals dispatched the Los Angeles Dodgers, owners of MLB's highest payroll and baseball's best pitcher, Clayton Kershaw.
Color the Cards unimpressed: They beat Kershaw, who now carries a 5.12 postseason ERA, twice in the best-of-five National League Division Series. They also kept the Dodgers' potent bats in check, limiting L.A. to just six runs over the series' final three games.
Mostly, manager Mike Matheny's club played like it owns this stage, which it does. St. Louis has now made the playoffs in each of Matheny's three seasons at the helm and has appeared in the Fall Classic.
The Cardinals have a deep rotation anchored by ace Adam Wainwright and postseason veteran John Lackey, a solid bullpen and a balanced lineup, featuring Mr. October candidate Matt Carpenter, who hit .375 in the series with three home runs.
As Carpenter told MLB.com's Jenifer Langosch, "We have something special going on right now."
Kansas City Royals
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How can you root against Kansas City? After a historic, 29-year playoff drought, the Royals are flying high. They're like a cork that just got popped off a three-decades-old bottle of bubbly and never wants to come down.
They might not. After besting postseason gunslinger Jon Lester in the wild-card playoff against the Oakland A's, Kansas City rolled on to Southern California to tackle the Los Angeles Angels, owners of baseball's best regular-season record.
This isn't the regular season, and the Royals showed why, exposing the Halos' injury-thinned starting rotation and keeping the Angels' bats cold—including AL MVP front-runner Mike Trout, who went 1-for-12.
Kansas City seems to have embraced its underdog appeal, but this team isn't winning on gumption and mojo alone. The Royals got excellent starting pitching, from ace "Big Game" James Shields, sure, but also from hard-throwing rookie Yordano Ventura and left-hander Jason Vargas.
The bullpen didn't flinch. And the offense, led by Eric Hosmer (7-for-14 with two home runs in the series), got big hits when needed.
It's been tempting to say the Royals, no one's favorite out of spring training, would fizzle eventually. Yet they've kept soaring.
"We're not at the end," owner David Glass told MLB.com's Dick Kaegel after the Game 3 clincher against the Angels. "We're at the beginning of something that could be really good."
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Baltimore Orioles
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The Orioles are probably the most complete team left standing and the least deserving of the "underdog" label.
Sure, they spent decades as an afterthought in the AL East. They haven't been to the World Series since 1983. And they matched up against the Detroit Tigers and their star-studded starting rotation in the American League Division Series.
But Baltimore won 96 games for a reason.
The O's looked every bit the better team as they buzzed through Detroit's trio of Cy Young winners, defeating Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander and David Price in succession.
There are simply few holes in this team. No, the O's don't have a shutdown ace. But they have a deep rotation, backed by an exemplary 'pen.
Yes, they lost Matt Wieters and Manny Machado to injury and Chris Davis to an amphetamine suspension. But they still have plenty of punch thanks to Nelson Cruz, who hit .500 with two home runs and five RBI against the Tigers.
Of all the cohesive clubs left in this thing, Baltimore might be the tightest knit of all. The whole "overcoming adversity" angle can be overplayed, but it fits the Orioles like a well-oiled glove.
As ESPN.com's Jerry Crasnick put it: "With each opponent they vanquish and obstacle they surmount, the Orioles have gone from Buck Showalter's band of second-chancers and previously unwanteds to the team to beat in the MLB postseason."
So Who Has the Edge?
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We'll agree with Crasnick and pick Baltimore. It's a close call; a case can be made for any of these clubs.
But from here, the Orioles look like the most complete team, free of glaring weaknesses.
Their deep rotation allows them to play matchups and augments an already excellent bullpen. Their offense is potent despite the losses they've suffered, and they could get Davis back for the World Series if they decide to activate him.
Plus, the O's will have home-field advantage as long as they're in it, thanks to their regular-season record and the AL's win in the 2014 All-Star Game.
That's not to say they should put the champagne on ice just yet. We're a long way, and many more twists, from crowning a winner.
If the 2014 playoffs have taught us anything, it's to expect the unexpected. Buckle up.
All statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com.
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