Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Tennessee Titans: Spread Analysis and Pick Prediction

The Tennessee Titans are trying to take the next step beyond mediocrity, but they're not having much success, losing four of their first five games under new head coach Ken Whisenhunt and going 1-3-1 against the spread. Tennessee hopes to improve upon those figures when it hosts the 0-5 Jacksonville Jaguars for an AFC South rivalry battle Sunday afternoon.

Point spread: Titans opened as six-point favorites (line updates and matchup report).

Odds Shark computer prediction: 16.0-11.3 Titans

Why the Jaguars can cover the spread

To begin with, the Jags are 0-5 both SU and ATS, so they're due, right? Jacksonville opened this season by playing Philadelphia tough, and last week it gave Pittsburgh a good game, allowing just 17 points, the last seven on an interception return for a score. Rookie quarterback Blake Bortles has shown glimpses of what might be, completing 67 percent of his throws, although the six picks are a bit much. Hopefully, he can improve from start to start. Finally, the biggest thing the Jags might have going for them Sunday is the fact that the Titans are just not a very good team at the moment.

Why the Titans can cover the spread

The Titans are good enough to build a 28-3 lead over Cleveland; they're just not good enough to hang on to that lead. Tennessee was impressive in its season-opening victory at Kansas City, but it hasn't found that same groove since. The Titans dominated the first half against the Browns last week, and even after starting quarterback Jake Locker left the game with a hand injury, backup Charlie Whitehurst came in and threw for 194 yards and two scores.

Tennessee can run the ball a little, to the tune of 125 yards per game so far this season, and if it can just play a full four quarters it might be in good shape Sunday. Finally, the best thing the Titans might have going for them Sunday is the fact the Jags are just not a very good team at the moment.

Smart pick

The smartest choice on this game for bettors would probably be to steer very clear of it—pretend it doesn't exist. But for those who won't, or can't, these teams have split their season series five years in a row, with the underdog going 5-4-1 ATS. And with Jacksonville lined as the underdog more often than not, it's 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven games in this series. So the pick here goes with the underdog Jaguars, plus the points.

Trends

• The total has gone under in six of Jacksonville's last nine games when playing Tennessee
• Tennessee is 1-4 SU in its last five games

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark—follow on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.