Colts Sit Atop AFC South, and Texans Aren't Even a Real Threat

Sometimes, preseason projections are made to look foolish. The New Orleans Saints are crashing and burning. The Kansas City Chiefs seem to be much better than statistical analysis of their 2013 season would otherwise suggest. The New England Patriots offense is in shambles.

But sometimes, preseason projections are very much correct. And here we are, with the AFC South looking all but decided as Week 6 enters the picture. 

The Houston Texans are 3-2, tied for first place. They are also not a very good football team. Their rushing attack is inconsistent, the pass offense is horrendous and their record is buoyed by beating other terrible teams and an unsustainable rate of turnover luck by opposing offenses in the red zone. 

The Indianapolis Colts are 3-2, tied for first place. They've won three straight, stomping two inferior teams in impressive fashion and dispatching a good Baltimore Ravens side after starting 0-2 against two strong squads, the Denver Broncos and Philadelphia Eagles.

Quarterback Andrew Luck showed some inconsistency on Sunday against Baltimore, but he has generally been a powerhouse now that tight end Dwayne Allen and wideout Reggie Wayne are back on the field. 

As these teams go into Thursday Night Football this week, there is absolutely nothing that statistically shows the Texans to be a threat. Had they beaten the Dallas Cowboys in overtime this week, they would have been the league's worst 4-1 team. As it stands, they're still a paper tiger. 

Houston came into this offseason with the No. 1 overall pick, the No. 33 overall pick and enough players capable of superstar performances (defensive end J.J. Watt, wideouts Andre Johnson and DeAndre Hopkins, running back Arian Foster, cornerback Johnathan Joseph) to compete...if it solved its quarterback position. 

The Texans passed on quarterback Blake Bortles, Johnny Manziel and Teddy Bridgewater, opting instead to stick with journeyman free-agent signing Ryan Fitzpatrick. They did "address" the position with Tom Savage in the fourth round. Savage has yet to be active in a game. 

Team	DVOA (Rank)	Passing DVOA (Rank)	Record	Week 5 Result
Indianapolis	2.5% (18)	38.6% (7)	3-2	W 20-13 v. BAL
Houston	-7.2% (24)	11.5% (19)	3-2	L 20-17 @ DAL
Tennessee	-27.9% (28)	-17.3% (28)	1-4	L 29-28 v. CLE
Jacksonville	-50.1% (32)	-33.0% (31)	0-5	L 17-9 v. PIT

This has culminated in an imminently predictable offense. Fitzpatrick isn't a downfield threat unless he scrambles long enough to get to his reads. The receivers are good when Fitzpatrick finds them, but he often doesn't put them in position to succeed. When the offensive line isn't able to keep the Houston run game going, the only thing this offense can do is spread the field and pray. 

That doesn't mean that Indianapolis is going to stomp Houston on Thursday. In fact, given Indianapolis' poor run defense (15 carries for 90 yards allowed Sunday, 31st in the NFL by Football Outsiders' DVOA through Week 4), this may be one of the few teams that Houston can actually exploit. 

The matchups even look good for Houston on defense. Houston's big problem is a woeful run defense, and Indianapolis still employs running back Trent Richardson. The short-term concern for the Colts should go up exponentially should offensive lineman Jack Mewhort miss Thursday's game as well, as rookie UDFA center Jonotthan Harrison was a huge culprit in Indy's slow start on offense against Baltimore.

Tim Sharp/Associated Press

Houston had its chance to be a live dog and win this division. It had it in May, when it could have left the draft with one of the three quarterbacks projected to have franchise potential. 

The Texans had their choice to be a live dog in this division, and instead they chose Tom Savage. 

Barring an extremely unlikely bailout from quarterback Ryan Mallett, this is the team the Texans assembled in the offseason. It's a team that relies on the run game and choice game scripts to minimize the damage that Fitzpatrick can do. 

It has played out as close to what projections can capture as it possibly could. Houston can be a wild-card threat if everything breaks right, but this division belongs to Indianapolis. Given how winnable the AFC South could be this year, head coach Bill O'Brien and general manager Rick Smith have only themselves to thank for that. 

Rivers McCown is the AFC South lead writer for Bleacher Report. His work has also appeared on Football Outsiders and ESPN.com. Follow him on Twitter at @riversmccown.