What Would Make Michael Carter-Williams' Sophomore Season a Success?
Michael Carter-Williams' NBA debut was among the league's hardest seasons to grade.
On the one hand, his versatility and overstuffed stat sheets helped the Philadelphia 76ers point guard take home Rookie of the Year honors. On the other, his numbers weren't all that efficient and could not have made the biggest impact given that his team went 19-63.
The jury remains out on the 22-year-old, and his sophomore season won't likely deliver a verdict. Still, there are signs that Sixers fans should be watching for to see how bright—and how close—the future is for this pivotal piece of their lengthy rebuild.
Shooting With More Consistency
Carter-Williams entered the league with a number of holes in his game, though no hole was greater than his lack of a reliable touch away from the basket.
In a 2013 scouting report, NBADraft.net's Elliot Adamczyk started the on-court portion of Carter-Williams' weaknesses by pointing to his "inconsistent outside shooting." Had that report been written this year instead of last, it still would likely feature the same takeoff point.
For everything he did well as a rookie—he joined Hall of Famers Magic Johnson and Oscar Robertson as the only NBA rookies to ever average at least 16 points, six rebounds and six assists—shooting was a constant struggle. And that's putting it lightly. ESPN.com's Ethan Strauss shared his thoughts on Carter-Williams:
His problems were most glaring on the perimeter, where he fired at will but rarely found his target. Of the 115 players who attempted at least 200 threes last season, Carter-Williams tied with Detroit Pistons bricklayer Josh Smith for 114th with a 26.4 percent success rate.
Given the league's increasing reliance on the long ball, Carter-Williams' three-point problems could set his ceiling uncomfortably low if they are never solved. Spacing is critical to offensive success—eight of the league's top 10 three-point shooting teams last season had top-half offensive efficiency rankings—and Carter-Williams could have trouble maximizing his strengths without it.
Long, quick and explosive off the bounce, he got to the rim at will last season. His 696 drives were the sixth-most in the league, per NBA.com's SportVU player tracking data, and his 70 games played were the third-fewest among the category's top 15 players.
While getting to the basket wasn't a problem, finishing there absolutely was, as shown in his shot chart below, courtesy of NBA.com.
Between his shooting woes and the lack of scoring help around him, Carter-Williams often found himself going head-first into overcrowded lanes. Defenses will continue packing the paint until he forces them out of there, and the congestion has already hurt his production.
It's telling that all of those drives only netted him 407 points, 10th-most in the league. It's even more ominous that he had just a 37.7 percent conversion rate on his drives, the second-lowest of the 35 players with 400-plus drives.
His shooting percentages need to see dramatic improvement, and he knows it.
"I don't have a specific number," he said, per CSNPhilly.com's John Gonzalez, when asked if he was eyeing a particular three-point percentage this year. "I know I want to shoot significantly better than I did last year."
It's hard to say how much he can improve his perimeter shot. He hit just 30.7 percent of his threes during his two years at Syracuse, and any work he planned to put in this summer became more difficult after he underwent surgery on his right shoulder in May.
He still hasn't completely healed from the procedure, and head coach Brett Brown cautioned that the Sixers "still don't know" when Carter-Williams will be able to return, per Keith Pompey of The Philadelphia Inquirer.
Whenever Carter-Williams can get back to work, he'll have more than just his shooting to improve.
Trimming His Turnovers
Part of the challenge in evaluating Carter-Williams is that it's difficult figuring out how much to trust his production.
His stat sheet was, without a doubt, inflated by his situation. Not only were the loss-column-embracing Sixers OK enough with his mistakes to give him 34.5 minutes a night, but their break-neck pace (league-high 101.6 possessions per 48 minutes) also enhanced his volume.
However, this is a two-way street. You cannot devalue his points (16.7), assists (6.3) and rebounds (6.2) without also acknowledging the negative side of the inflation: 3.5 turnovers per game, fourth-highest among qualified point guards.
Different factors contributed to that number, not the least of which was a woefully undermanned supporting cast. Still, that doesn't completely get him off the hook.
A lot of his turnover woes can be chalked up to poor decision-making, as Bleacher Report's Adam Fromal noted:
"In order to improve as a sophomore, Carter-Williams has to cut back on the bad-pass turnovers.
He recorded 144 as a rookie 1-guard, and that's far too high a number for a player with only 70 games under his belt. Only seven players recorded more per game, and each of them generated more points off assists, making the biggest problem on this young floor general's resume quite obvious.
"
Carter-Williams' 1.79 assist-to-turnover ratio slotted him right between scoring guards Joe Johnson (1.80) and Monta Ellis (1.78) for 67th out of 96 qualified players. That's not exactly what one would expect from a player labeled "a pure, pass-first point guard," as Bleacher Report's Jonathan Wasserman called Carter-Williams in March 2013.
It's also not what Sixers fans would like to see considering how heavy an offensive load Carter-Williams is likely to carry throughout this rebuild. The franchise has started assembling other pieces around him—lottery picks Nerlens Noel, Joel Embiid and Dario Saric—but Carter-Williams remains the most important offensive catalyst.
"As Carter-Williams starts to craft his professional image over the next four seasons, it'll be those players' chemistry with him that dictates how successful this new generation of Sixers ultimately is," wrote Bleacher Report's Alec Nathan.
The Sixers will probably always need Carter-Williams' scoring, which only makes his job as a table-setter more challenging. He needs to understand when to attack and when to defer, when to force the issue and when to stay patient.
It all comes back to decision-making, to reading a defense and reacting properly.
That's still a work in progress, as is his biggest test as a floor general.
Embracing Leadership Role
As bad as the Sixers were last season—63 losses, lowlighted by a historically futile 26-game losing streak—this year's group could be even worse.
"The likelihood of this team being better than last year's 19-win outfit seems slim—especially when its biggest addition (Joel Embiid, the No. 3 pick in the 2014 draft) could miss most, if not all, of the upcoming campaign," wrote Bleacher Report's Josh Martin, who predicted a 16-66 record for Philly.
With storm clouds still swirling above the Sixers, someone will need to keep this team focused on the horizon. And that someone really needs to be Carter-Williams, who says he's up for the task.
"I think regardless who is on the team, I have to be a leader out there, give direction to the new guys and really bring the team together," he said, per Tom Moore of The Intelligencer (via Pro Basketball Talk's Brett Pollakoff).
This roster is littered with new faces, a lot of which have little or no NBA experience. In most places, that description would probably fit Carter-Williams as well, but Philly is not most places.
The Sixers have a lot of players who are either unproven or proven for the wrong reasons. Carter-Williams, though, has some major numbers and that shiny individual award to his name. And with those accolades comes a new batch of expectations.
"While Carter-Williams isn’t expected to turn into the next Chris Paul over a single summer," wrote Philly.com's Michael Kaskey-Blomain, "he will be expected to take that next step towards superstardom this season."
Ceilings can rise quickly in the NBA, and fans will want to see him raise his now that he has captured the same award that point guards such as Chris Paul, Derrick Rose, Damian Lillard and Kyrie Irving won before him.
All four of those All-Stars added something to their games during their sophomore seasons.
Paul increased both his scoring (17.3, up from 16.1) and assist-to-turnover ratio (from 3.39 to 3.56). Rose added nearly three points to his player efficiency rating (16.0 to 18.6). Irving made sizable jumps in points (18.5 to 22.5) and win shares (4.1 to 5.3). Lillard lifted his offensive rating (116 from 108) and dropped his defensive rating (110 from 112).
Every one of them progressed, but more importantly, they cemented themselves as central figures of their respective franchises. They led by example and bettered their teams by bettering themselves.
That is the blueprint for Carter-Williams to follow.
His challenge isn't to replicate last season's performance. It's making this one even better, as he shared in a recent tweet:
That involves on-court items such as improving his stroke, getting smarter with his shot selection and making better decisions with the basketball.
But what would ultimately make his sophomore effort a success is bigger than that. It's growth in all areas: as a player, as a leader and as a person.
The Sixers don't measure success like most of the basketball world, but this metric is universal.
All teams can ask for is that their players get better from one year to the next. Now that Carter-Williams has a bar set for himself, grading his performance should be a lot easier this time around.
Unless otherwise noted, statistics used courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com.
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