6 NBA Players Who Will Average 25-Plus Points Per Game in 2014-15
All hail the NBA's most feared point-totaling titans.
Scoring remains the sexiest form of court-cred out there—especially when players are putting 20-point averages to shame by registering 25- and 30-point performances regularly.
Elite volume scorers are the NBA's movers and shakers. They're typically the most followed, scrutinized and revered. They give people at the scorer's table purpose. They are the players you shamelessly—not to mention poorly–mimic in driveways, gymnasiums and on playgrounds.
So, naturally, we've got to take a stab at figuring out who will be this upcoming season's best point-pilers.
Five players went off for at least 25 points per game last season: James Harden, Kevin Love, LeBron James, Carmelo Anthony and Kevin Durant. Will all of them do the same in 2014-15? If not, who's leaving the in crowd?
Better yet, who's joining it?
Last year's point-stacking sages will be our guide. We'll also be looking at those who came close and could improve upon their standing by way of individual evolution or team circumstances. In one instance, we'll even be banking on the freaky getting freakier.
Put your getting-buckets pants on, because, well, it's bucket-getting time.
Departing Friends
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More like departing friend.
Kevin Love ranked fourth in scoring last year, pumping in 26.1 points per game. Putting up similar numbers alongside James and Kyrie Irving is going to be difficult.
James, specifically, has only once played beside a 25-point scorer. Dwyane Wade averaged 25.5 points a night in 2010-11, and that's it. The next largest total is 22.1, which is also held by Wade (2011-12).
But things are different for the Cleveland Cavaliers than they were for the Miami Heat. Bosh didn't dominate the ball like Irving will, making it easier for James and Wade to get reps in volume. Love isn't afforded that same luxury.
In this situation, Love is a more talented version of Bosh. He'll predominantly be used as a spot-up shooter and perimeter-defense slayer within David Blatt's movement-rich offense, ceding touches and shots to James and Irving.
Instead of jacking up 18-plus attempts every night, he's looking at more like 15 or 16. Eclipsing the 20-point plateau shouldn't be a problem, though it could.
Surpassing that 25-point touchstone for the third time in his career is, for now, out of the question.
The Almost First-Timers
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Russell Westbrook, Oklahoma City Thunder
Imagine my surprise upon realizing Russell Westbrook has never averaged 25 points per game.
Playing alongside Durant and Harden for most of his career has no doubt curbed Westbrook's totals. Harden's departure hurt too; it's forced him to shoulder even more of the playmaking responsibilities.
If he stays healthy, Westbrook, who averaged 21.8 points a night last year, is a dark-horse contender for this honor. But he'll also need to become more efficient. Competing for additional shots while operating alongside Durant, Reggie Jackson and Serge Ibaka is a losing battle, after all.
Blake Griffin, Los Angeles Clippers
Last season's showing—24.1 points per game—would have you believe Blake Griffin is on the cusp of joining this esteemed class of point-totalers. If only last season was an accurate preview of what's to come.
Griffin is an immensely talented scorer, and that won't change. Averaging 25 points alongside Chris Paul is just tough because he likes to spread the wealth. Griffin's per-36 minute scoring rate dropped from 25.1 without Paul to 23.9 with him last year, according to NBA.com.
Most of his minutes come next to Paul, so if the point guard is healthy, sustaining a 25-point average will be difficult. If for some reason Paul's not healthy, or Griffin suddenly turns into a dangerous three-point gunner, we'll reopen his file.
DeMarcus Cousins, Sacramento Kings
No Isaiah Thomas should mean more shots for DeMarcus Cousins. It should also mean harder shots.
Neither Darren Collison nor Ramon Sessions rivals Thomas' scoring acumen, freeing up defenses to focus more energy on Cousins. Playing next to the ball-dominant Rudy Gay for an entire season also won't help.
Expect Cousins to exceed 20 points per game like he did last season (22.7), while still falling short of the company that follows.
6. Anthony Davis, New Orleans Pelicans
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2013-14 Points Per Game: 20.8
Scoring Rank: 15
In The Brow we trust. Because we must.
Anthony Davis didn't even come close to approaching the 25-point mark last season. He topped 25 points just 24 times all year.
But to say a 4.2-point gap is too big even for Davis to erase implies that we understand how freaking good he is, when we don't. His scoring average jumped by 7.3 points between his rookie and sophomore season, from 13.5 to 20.8. A similar increase is not outside the realm of possibility.
That is not a misprint.
Next season should bring more offensive firepower with it. If Eric Gordon, Ryan Anderson and Jrue Holiday all stay healthy, and Tyreke Evans gets healthy, Davis' shot and scoring totals could suffer.
Surrounding help does not belie Davis' status, though. Superstars find ways to score. Durant and James have had little trouble leaving 25-point means in the rear view while playing beside All-Star teammates. Davis is now in that same class, a top-three contender and eventual MVP candidate.
He, too, will find ways to score.
2014-15 Prediction: 25.2 points
5. Stephen Curry, Golden State Warriors
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2013-14 Points Per Game: 24.0
Scoring Rank: 7
Stephen Curry's 24 points per game last season were a career best, yet somehow, someway, his ascent into the 25-point scoring ranks feels inevitable. Guess that's what happens when watching someone who hasn't met a shot he didn't like and couldn't effortlessly hit.
It also doesn't hurt that Curry attempted almost as many three-pointers (7.9) as he did two-pointers (9.8) last season. Or that he shot 42.9 percent from the beyond the arc.
Treys are worth more, you know. (Yay, for math!) If he keeps shooting them with obnoxious volume and unprecedented ease, his scoring totals will climb. We're watching a guy who could hoist 10 threes a night—he did so 25 times in 2013-14—and no one would think twice. We're also watching a guy who could still bury 40-plus percent of his attempts while doing just this.
"He's one of the very best point-producers in the Association, capable of putting up remarkable performances from beyond the arc while creating an abundance of his own looks," Bleacher Report's Adam Fromal wrote. "No one in NBA history has ever been better at connecting from downtown without relying on assists from his teammates."
That last part is key. The Golden State Warriors offense will certainly look different under Steve Kerr, which is to say, better. Shots and made baskets should come easier. Toss in an aging Andre Iguodala and David Lee, and Curry becomes even more valuable offensively. More dangerous too.
Turns out that's actually possible. Who knew?
2014-15 Prediction: 25.7 points
4. James Harden, Houston Rockets
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2013-14 Points Per Game: 25.4
Scoring Rank: 5
By trading Jeremy Lin to the Lakers and allowing Chandler Parsons to sign with the Dallas Mavericks, the Houston Rockets waved goodbye to two of their top four scorers from last season, simultaneously increasing the playmaking and, more importantly, scoring burden Harden must ferry.
No matter. He's up to the challenge.
Harden has averaged at least 25.4 points per game in each of his first two seasons with the Rockets. The primary scoring role has looked good on him outside the playoffs. All those years—fine, three—playing third fiddle to Durant and Westbrook created an explosive, six-headed monster. And that bearded beast isn't going anywhere. Not now.
Not one of the players Houston brought in over the offseason or still employs replaces everything the team lost. Trevor Ariza is a solid three-and-D guy, but he won't light up the scoreboard nightly.
After him, the Rockets have guys like Terrence Jones, Donatas Motiejunas, Patrick Beverley and Jason Terry. In other words, when it comes to carrying the Rockets offensively, there is Harden and Dwight Howard.
Mostly, though, there's Harden, and the third 25-point season of his career.
2014-15 Prediction: 26.4 points
3. LeBron James, Cleveland Cavaliers
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2013-14 Points Per Game: 27.1
Scoring Rank: 3
Fun fact: Four players in NBA history have averaged 25 or more points per game at least 10 times through their first 11 seasons—Shaquille O'Neal, Jerry West, Michael Jordan and...James.
Returning to Cleveland could mean that streak ends. It could mean James sacrifices shots in the name of his teammates. It could mean he averages under 25 points for the first time in 10 years.
It won't.
Something James said after the Cavaliers' first practice of training camp stands out.
"I'll probably handle the ball a little bit, but this is Kyrie [Irving]'s show," he explained, per ESPN.com's Dave McMenamin. "He's our point guard. He's our floor general, and we need him to put us in position to succeed offensively. He has to demand that and command that from us with him handling the ball."
Assuming James isn't pointlessly fibbing through his mouth guard, diminished ball-handling responsibilities leave him to focus on offensive aspects aside from creating shots for his teammates. Like, scoring.
James has basically been a point guard for 11 years. Forcing him into a more traditional role does put the fate of a finite number of touches in Irving's hand, but it also makes him a scorer first, sort of—though not totally—like Durant and Anthony.
So, yeah. Uh-oh.
Twenty-five points, just as it's always been, won't be a problem.
2014-15 Prediction: 27.0 points
2. Carmelo Anthony, New York Knicks
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2013-14 Points Per Game: 27.4
Scoring Rank: 2
Of all the things Phil Jackson's famed triangle offense will change, Anthony's garish scoring average isn't one of them.
Existing within the triangle demands Anthony adapt his game from that of an iso-heavy, head-down, ball-brandishing, systemless chucker to a more team-oriented, pass-palatable assassin. While radical, it's a transition many believe he can make, including NBC Sports' Kurt Helin:
"Bottom line, you have to move the ball and move off the ball. Anthony has shown flashes of this kind of play when with Team USA in the past, surrounded by the world’s best players. Guys he trusted. This is different — he has to lift the rest of the guys up. He has to set the example, play the system the right way and be vocal when needed. Then just shake his head at J.R. Smith sometimes.
Anthony’s post skills should fit well in the triangle. His ability to space the floor with shooting will be a great fit. It doesn’t hurt he can take guys off the dribble now and again. He has the skills.
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Consider, too, the roles Michael Jordan and Kobe Bryant played within the exact same system. Anthony will function differently as small forward and stretch 4, but his responsibilities won't be dissimilar.
Jordan and Bryant spent 17 combined seasons in the triangle. Fifteen of those 17 seasons saw one of them pile on 25 or more points a night. Jordan did so in all eight of his seasons under Jackson; Bryant did so nine times in 11 years.
If anything, it should be easier for Anthony to match that output. Jackson's Chicago Bulls and Los Angeles Lakers teams had clear No. 2 options. Next year's New York Knicks—well, they don't. They have a mercurial J.R. Smith. And half an Amar'e Stoudemire. And (gulp) Andrea Bargnani.
For as much as the Knicks will look to succeed by committee, Anthony is still their offensive engine. Tallying 25 points per game for the third straight year—and eighth time of his career—will be easy.
2014-15 Prediction: 28.9 points
1. Kevin Durant, Oklahoma City Thunder
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2013-14 Points Per Game: 32.0
Scoring Rank: 1
Only two players have averaged at least 25 points per game in each of the last six seasons: James and Durant. For the latter, that streak isn't in jeopardy of ending this upcoming season.
Or anytime soon, for that matter.
The reigning MVP has won four of the last five scoring titles. He gets buckets in every way imaginable. He's one of the most efficient scorers in league history, a perpetual 50/40/90 threat who has, almost single-handedly, changed the relationship between volume scoring and efficiency.
Oh, he's less than two years away from free agency as well. Still ringless, he's under pressure to perform, and see those preeminent performances create wins.
Really, then, the question isn't whether this lanky scoring machine will top 25 points. What would it take for Durant to average less than 25 points per game? That's the question.
One to which we have no answer.
2014-15 Prediction: 29.2 points
*Stats courtesy of Basketball-Reference unless otherwise cited.
