Vernon Davis' Updated 2014 Fantasy Outlook Heading into Week 5

Vernon Davis may be a fantasy football weapon at the tight-end position, but he isn’t always such a safe bet.

In fact, Larry Donnell would have been a happier fantasy football player if he didn’t have so much trust in Davis on Sunday, as Art Stapleton of The Record pointed out:

Unfortunately, Davis’ injury status is the most important thing moving ahead to Week 5 when it comes to fantasy football. His back spasms caused him pain Sunday, and he had to leave the victory over the Philadelphia Eagles after getting hit in the back by DeMeco Ryans in the second half. 

Tim Sharp/Associated Press

Davis is reportedly day to day, although Matt Barrows of The Sacramento Bee noted that he missed practice Wednesday:

Davis also missed the game against the Arizona Cardinals with an ankle injury, so this isn’t the first health concern owners have dealt with in 2014.

Tony Avelar/Associated Press

We wouldn’t be as worried about Davis’ health if he had been particularly productive before getting hurt, but he only has 91 receiving yards on 12 targets this year. He did play against the Dallas Cowboys, Chicago Bears and a decent portion of the game against the Eagles and only had six combined targets in the Chicago and Philadelphia contests.

Yes, Davis scored two touchdowns against the Cowboys, but the low number of targets is more indicative of future success (or lack of success) if his role doesn’t change.

What’s more, the 49ers rank 22nd in the NFL in passing yards per game, and Colin Kaepernick has been inconsistent at best this season. He has six touchdown passes and four interceptions, and San Francisco went back to the drawing board before the win over the Eagles and gave the ball to Frank Gore over and over.

The success of the running attack could mean fewer passes moving forward, which will limit Davis’ overall fantasy value.

Gore commented on the offense, via Taylor Price of 49ers.com:

"

Whatever works, I’m with it. If it’s passing, it’s passing. We pass the ball. If it’s running, we run the ball.

I’m willing to do whatever it takes to win and if we have to go out there and do the spread again, I’m with it. That’s just the type of player I am. I just want to win.

"

Considering the running game is the main reason why the 49ers won in Week 4, that could be problematic for Davis owners.

Mathew Sumner/Associated Press

Davis and the 49ers will face the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 5 and their eighth-ranked defense against the pass. The Chiefs are fresh off a dominating performance against the New England Patriots in which they limited Tom Brady to only 159 passing yards and picked him off twice.

If you put it all together, Davis is less than 100 percent on an offense that could have a renewed focus on the run and is going up against a red-hot secondary. That spells trouble for his fantasy value in Week 5.

We know that Davis can be one of the most productive tight ends in the entire NFL when he is healthy. He is a two-time Pro Bowler who tied for the league lead in touchdown receptions in 2009 with 13 and was tied for third in 2013 with 13 again.

Marcio Jose Sanchez/Associated Press

That is what makes Davis’ case interesting (and more difficult), because we won’t be ready to fully trust him again in the fantasy realm until he proves he is completely healthy, but it is hard to bench a proven fantasy stud. We recommend proceeding with caution, especially against a red-hot defense in Kansas City, for the time being. 

Eventually, he will be back to the touchdown machine we are accustomed to seeing.

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