7 Reasons the Sacramento Kings Could Outperform Low Expectations in 2014-15
When you've missed the playoffs for eight consecutive seasons, as the Sacramento Kings have done, expectations tend to be pretty low. Compounding issues is that the team plays in the difficult Western Conference.
That's led to some pretty lackluster predictions for the Kings' 2014-15 season.
Bleacher Report's Adam Fromal slated Sacramento to finish with a 26-56 record. Another B/R writer, Josh Martin, has the Kings listed at 30-52 in his pre-training camp predictions. ESPN's forecast panel has the team finishing at 29-55. Even I provided a guess a while back, projecting the Kings to finish with a 33-49 record.
The average win-loss record of those combined forecasts has the Kings finishing at 30-52, so it's safe to say not much is expected of the coming season.
But just because nobody projects much out of the Kings, it doesn't mean that's what will happen. Take last year's Phoenix Suns, for example. They were one of the worst teams in 2012-13, and most people seemed to expect a similar result in 2014-15. However, the Suns went 48-34 and missed the playoffs by one game.
If the ball bounces the right way and the Kings improve in the right areas, they could also exceed expectations, and here are some reasons why...
It's Their Second Year in Head Coach Michael Malone's System
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Head coach Michael Malone is entering his second year as the Kings' head coach. Not only was last year his first as Sacramento's head coach, but it was also his first go-round as an NBA head coach.
Having a year of experience under his belt, both with this group and in general, should make for improved results.
For evidence, look no further than Malone's previous team, the Golden State Warriors.
The coach joined the Warriors with a background in coaching defense. Judging from his first year on the job, one would think Malone wasn't up to the task. However, a look at the jump the team made the following year tells a different story.
In 2011-12, the Warriors were 27th in defensive rating, allowing 109.1 points per 100 possessions. In 2012-13, having had a year to acclimate to his system, the Warriors jumped to 14th, giving up 105.5 points per 100 possessions.
The Kings could make a similar jump, especially since they already started to...
The Defense Was Headed in the Right Direction to End Last Season
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After finishing 23rd in defensive rating last season, the Kings undoubtedly need work on the less glamorous end if they're going to make a sizable leap. Luckily there's evidence that such an improvement isn't so far- fetched.
That's because Sacramento made strides on defense throughout the 2013-14 season.
According to NBA.com, on Jan. 31 the Kings were 29th in defensive rating, giving up 107.3 points per 100 possessions. Only the Utah Jazz were marginally (107.4 per 100 possessions) worse.
However, things got better from there.
From Feb. 1 onward, Sacramento only allowed 105.0 points per 100 possessions. That's 15th in the NBA during that stretch.
Granted, it's only a 36-game sample size. But considering the improvement the Warriors made after gaining experience in Malone's system, it stands to reason that a similar progression from the Kings was more than just a statistical anomaly.
There's a New Emphasis on Offense
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The Kings weren't atrocious on offense last season. Statistically speaking, they were actually better on that end of the court.
Sacramento finished with an offensive rating of 102.9 points per 100 possessions, which was 20th in the league. In other words, slightly better than its 23rd-ranked defensive rating.
However, one area in which the Kings were severely lacking was ball movement.
The team was 29th in assist percentage, with only 51.1 percent of its baskets coming off an assist. The Kings were also last in total assists, dishing out only 1,547 throughout the season.
As Malone told Jason Jones of the Sacramento Bee, heading into this season, there's a real emphasis on ball movement.
“How we played offensively is unacceptable,” Malone said of last season. “Whether it be the system, the plays, but more importantly moving the basketball. Be unselfish, don’t hold (the basketball). We want to trust the pass, have the type of mentality. And if you’re holding the ball, you’re wrong. If you’re standing you’re wrong.”
Increased Production at Power Forward
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Of all the positions, power forward was Sacramento's weakest. In fact, the Kings arguably got worse production from the 4 than any other team.
According to Hoopsstats.com, the Kings were last in the league, getting an average of 13.6 points per game from power forwards.
In efficiency recap difference, which compares a team's efficiency versus its opponents, Sacramento was 29th at the 4, with a difference of minus-6.5. Only the Philadelphia 76ers were worse at minus-8.2.
But the Kings should be considerably better at power forward this year. For one, Sacramento only got 18 games from Carl Landry, and he wasn't exactly good when he was on the court. In fact, it was the worst season of his career. It's hard to envision a similar performance from Landry in 2014-15.
But that's not the real reason for increased production from power forward. The real explanation is Rudy Gay's familiarity with the position from his time with Team USA at the FIBA Basketball World Cup.
While with Team USA, Gay primarily played the 4 and is now comfortable with the position. As he told Jason Jones, his presence there also means Sacramento can give the opposition another look without drastically changing how the team operates.
“I think me playing the 4 makes other teams change, it shouldn’t change us much," Gay said. It should make them change how they guard us and also open up the floor.”
In this case, change is a good thing. It has to be considering things can only go up for Kings power forwards.
Ramon Sessions Provides Added Depth to the Backcourt
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The Kings' signing of Ramon Sessions won't make or break their season. But he'll provide depth to a point guard spot that was questionable after losing Isaiah Thomas and replacing him with Darren Collison.
The guard averaged 12.3 points and 4.1 assists in 26.7 minutes last season split between the Charlotte Bobcats and Milwaukee Bucks. Sacramento is hoping to get similar production from him.
And as Bleacher Report's Stephen Babb points out, Sessions has had some pretty eye-popping performances throughout his career:
"Sessions has come a long way. He was drafted with the 56th overall pick in 2007 and spent time in the NBA Development League with the Tulsa 66ers during the 2007-08 season.
Just remaining in the league is an accomplishment in its own right. Nothing has come easily for Sessions.
But as early as 2008, he dropped 24 assists in a game with the Bucks. In 2009, he scored a career-high 44 points in an overtime loss against the Detroit Pistons. Later that season, he posted his first triple-double (which included 16 assists) against the Los Angeles Lakers.
Those are signs of undeniable talent, and finding the right team fit may very well pave the way for similar results.
"
Who knows, maybe the Kings are that team.
The World Cup Had a Positive Impact on DeMarcus Cousins
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DeMarcus Cousins' time in the World Cup has had a positive impact on the center. Since he was already one of the league's premier big men, that's a scary thought.
At the team's media day, Cousins told reporters what he learned from the World Cup experience.
“I feel like I added a lot to my game, especially defensively,” Cousins said. “I have the confidence to know I really can do it on the defensive end as well as the offensive end. I learned a lot from it, it was an incredible experience.”
Cousins was already the best offensive center in the NBA. He led all centers in points per game and player efficiency rating, and he was third in assists.
If he can use his experience in the World Cup to become more of a two-way player, it will only help the Kings.
The Bar Is Already Set Pretty Low
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After finishing with back-to-back seasons at 28-54, the bar is already pretty low for the Kings. Really, they should only be able to go up from here.
Of course, all that depends on your expectations. After buying the team prior to last season, owner Vivek Ranadive is putting more stock into the win-loss record, according to Jones:
"Last year, when the season started, I said it wasn’t going to be about wins and losses. When I came here and we bought the team, there was dysfunction in the locker room, there wasn’t mutual respect, the arena was literally falling apart, the roof was falling down.
So we brought in a new team, we restored stability, restored respect, we put in a strong culture. But this year, let’s be clear, it is about wins and losses.
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The owner went on to add that he expects significant improvement this year.
“We have to do a lot better than we did last year, but beyond that I don’t want to make a commitment.”
But judging from outside prognostications like the ones cited in the intro, not a whole lot is expected. While finishing with a 35-47 record, for example, may be disappointing to Vivek and the Kings, it would be an accomplishment compared to what's projected by most people outside the organization.
When you consider all of the factors listed in the slideshow, it's hard to envision a scenario where the Kings don't improve. And if you set the bar low enough, it's difficult to imagine the team not performing better than expected.
Unless noted otherwise, all stats courtesy of NBA.com and Basketball-Reference.com.
What are your expectations for the Kings? Let me know on Twitter @SimRisso
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