Complete Offseason Guide, Predictions for the Oakland Athletics
The collapse is complete.
"Did you miss the entire A's regular season? Tonight's game is an encapsulated version," the San Francisco Chronicle's Susan Slusser tweeted—and she's absolutely right.
Baseball's best team over the first four months of the regular season, Oakland was one of the worst over the final two. That the team headed into the bottom of the eighth inning with a four-run lead and lost in extra innings shouldn't really be all that surprising.
The baseball gods haven't been smiling down upon the A's for some time.
But after a showing like that, you can bet that changes will be coming. They may not be widespread, but rest assured, they are coming.
Let's take a look at what's in store for the A's as what is going to feel like a far longer offseason than it actually is gets underway.
Payroll Breakdown
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Oakland opened the regular season with a franchise-record $82 million payroll—$21 million more than it had on Opening Day only a year earlier. While the A's still ranked near the bottom of baseball when it came to overall spending, that's a significant increase in the span of a single offseason for a small-market club.
Heading into 2015, the A's have just over $30 million committed—to four players.
If the plan is to stay in the same payroll range for 2015, that would leave general manager Billy Beane with roughly $60 million to fill 21 roster spots. With 14 players—including some cornerstone pieces—due raises in arbitration—that $60 million is going to disappear pretty quickly.
Arbitration-Eligible Players
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Oakland's best position player and best pitcher (at least going forward) are among the 13 players that the A's have heading to arbitration. Like I said, much of that $60 million that Billy Beane has to play with is going to be allocated before he has a chance to spend it outside the organization.
On the table below, projected salaries are loosely based on what the player listed for comparison received, either as a one-year deal or through the arbitration process, at a similar point in his career. You can find the exact figures for those players by clicking on the links included.
| Fernando Abad | RP | $525,900 | $1,500,000 | Tim Collins |
| Kyle Blanks | 1B/OF | $987,500 | $2,000,000 | Mitch Moreland |
| Jesse Chavez | SP/RP | $775,000 | $2,500,000 | Alexi Ogando |
| Ryan Cook | RP | $505,000 | $1,250,000 | Aaron Crow |
| Josh Donaldson | 3B | $500,000 | $7,500,000 | No comparison |
| Sam Fuld | OF | $800,000 | $1,850,000 | Eric Young Jr. |
| Craig Gentry | OF | $1,145,000 | $2,250,000 | Michael Saunders |
| John Jaso | C/DH | $2,300,000 | $3,750,000 | A.J. Ellis |
| Brandon Moss | OF/1B | $4,100,000 | $6,500,000 | James Loney |
| Jarrod Parker | SP | $500,000 | $1,300,000 | Brandon Beachy |
| Josh Reddick | OF | $2,700,000 | $4,000,000 | Matt Joyce |
| Fernando Rodriguez | RP | $600,000 | $775,000 | Jesse Chavez |
| Jeff Samardzija | SP | $5,345,000 | $8,500,000 | Rick Porcello |
| Eric Sogard | 2B/SS | $510,000 | $875,000 | Donnie Murphy |
| Totals | $21,192,500 | $44,550,000 |
If my projections are anywhere near accurate, Oakland's 2015 payroll will be in the neighborhood of $74 million with 17 of 25 roster spots filled—and it leaves Beane with about $16 million to play with.
In a perfect world, the A's would be able to work out long-term extensions with Josh Donaldson and Brandon Moss. But unless Donaldson is willing to give the team a significant discount, it's hard to see the A's being able to pay anywhere near market value for his services. Working out long-term deals with Moss and Josh Reddick seems like a far more likely scenario.
For Donaldson, a string of one-year deals through 2018 (his last year of arbitration), or until his yearly salary becomes too much of a burden for the team to carry, figures to be in his immediate future.
Jarrod Parker is an interesting case. The 25-year-old had established himself as one of the better young arms in the major leagues before his season was lost to Tommy John surgery—the second time that he's undergone the procedure.
Having not stepped on a mound at all during the regular season, it would stand to reason that he's not really due a raise. But that's never how these things wind up playing out, so expect an incentive-laden one-year deal to be the end result of his negotiations with the club.
That brings us to Jeff Samardzija, the first of GM Billy Beane's major acquisitions this summer. The Shark is due a substantial increase in salary heading into his final arbitration-eligible season and will become a free agent after the 2015 season comes to an end.
Would it surprise anyone if the A's looked to move Samardzija this winter?
A full season of Samardzija is going to be worth more to a team that misses out on (or can't afford to sign) one of the Big Three starters available in free agency (Jon Lester, Max Scherzer and James Shields), and the A's could quickly restock the farm system that took a hit during Beane's spending spree this summer.
At the very least, expect Beane to gauge interest around the game.
Players with Options and Oakland's Free Agents
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It's no secret that Jon Lester was nothing more than a two- to three-month rental for the A's, so his pending departure for greener pastures via free agency won't be a shock to anyone when it happens.
As for the rest of Oakland's pending free agents, there's only a few that the team figures to make a significant effort to re-sign.
| Alberto Callaspo | IF | $4,875,000 | |
| Adam Dunn | DH/1B | $15,000,000 | |
| Jonny Gomes | OF | $5,000,000 | |
| Luke Gregerson | RP | $5,065,000 | |
| Jason Hammel | SP | $6,000,000 | |
| Jon Lester | SP | $13,000,000 | |
| Jed Lowrie | SS | $5,250,000 | |
| Nick Punto | UTIL | $2,750,000 | $2.75M team option, $250,000 buyout |
| Geovany Soto | C | $3,050,000 |
Despite his awful showing in the Wild Card Game, Luke Gregerson is going to be one of the more sought-after setup men if he reaches the open market, which could price him out of Oakland's budget.
He was solid for Oakland (2.12 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 7.3 K/9) during the regular season and, given the bargain-basement price that the A's have closer Sean Doolittle signed for (due $9.29 million through 2018), the club should be able to afford him—if it wants him back (and that's a big if after his implosion against Kansas City).
Before the trade that bought Jason Hammel and Jeff Samardzija to Oakland, it was a near certainty that Jed Lowrie would be playing shortstop elsewhere in 2015, with top prospect Addison Russell taking the reins. But Russell is now in Chicago, and the A's don't have anyone down on the farm who's ready to step in.
While there are some free-agent options the team could pursue (more on that in a minute), re-signing Lowrie figures to be one of the first things that the team tries to get done.
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Potential Free-Agent Targets
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No team in the American League—and only two teams in baseball (Colorado and San Diego)—got less production from second base than Oakland did in 2014. Unfortunately for the A's, the crop of free-gent second basemen isn't all that deep, even if you consider longtime shortstops Asdrubal Cabrera and Stephen Drew part of that group.
Left field could be another area the A's look to improve, as it's unlikely that Jonny Gomes will find his way back to the A's, and neither Sam Fuld nor Craig Gentry, both arbitration-eligible, are full-time options.
With the aforementioned Parker and A.J. Griffin both returning from Tommy John surgery, adding another established starter isn't a terrible idea and figures to be something Beane will look to do.
That said, there are a handful of free-agent options who could be attractive to the club, both in terms of their relatively low salaries and the ability to sign them to short-term deals, as well as what they bring to the table talent-wise.
- Chris Denorfia, OF: It was a poor season all around for the 34-year-old, who struggled at the plate with both San Diego and Seattle to the tune of a .230./.284/.318 slash line. But the veteran can play all three outfield positions, isn't going to command a big deal and, before this season, had a career .341 on-base percentage.
- Stephen Drew, 2B/SS: Never a high on-base guy, Drew is likely faced with taking a one-year deal to try and reestablish his value after a disastrous 2014. Already familiar with some of the roster after spending the second half of the 2012 season with the A's, he could be a bargain, bouncing between second base and shortstop as needed.
- Colby Lewis, SP: After missing all of 2013 due to injury, Lewis didn't have a good year with Texas by any stretch of the imagination, pitching to a 5.18 ERA and 1.52 WHIP over 29 starts for the Rangers. But the California native (he grew up about four hours south of Oakland in Bakersfield) had a nice three-year run before the injury (32-29, 3.93 ERA, 1.18 WHIP) and could be a low-risk, high-reward addition.
- Grady Sizemore, OF: The former All-Star and MVP candidate is never going to be the player that he once was, but he showed enough with Philadelphia after being cut loose by Boston that a team is going to give him a shot in 2015. Relatively inexpensive, he could thrive in a part-time role on a contending club.
Potential Trade Targets
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As with many small-market clubs, it's often easier for the A's to improve the roster via trades than it is through free agency.
Whether the team has the talent down on the farm (or expendable pieces from the big league roster) to go out and make another bold acquisition, as it did with Lester and Samardzija, remains to be seen, but few general managers are as adept as surprising the baseball world as Beane is.
While the A's haven't been linked to any of these players, here are a few who figure to be hot names on the rumor mill this winter who would make sense in Oakland.
- Starlin Castro, SS, Chicago Cubs: While I'm not sure the A's have the pieces needed to land Castro, you can never count Beane out of the running for a player he sets his sights on. That Castro is signed to a team-friendly long-term deal and would immediately solidify shortstop for years to come makes him all the more attractive.
- Bartolo Colon, SP, New York Mets: The Mets are expected to shop Colon this winter given the team's plethora of young arms, and a return trip to Oakland—especially if the Mets are picking up some of the $11 million he's due in 2015—might make sense for both parties. Lest we forget, the A's wanted Colon back on a one-year deal before he signed with the Mets.
- Didi Gregorius, SS, Arizona Diamondbacks: A superb defender who hasn't hit consistently in the majors, the 24-year-old could be a low-cost addition who would give the A's one of the best defensive left sides of the infield in the game.
- Mike Leake, SP, Cincinnati Reds: Cincinnati has only one starter (Homer Bailey) signed after 2015, so it stands to reason that some members of the current staff could be shopped for younger talent with more team control. Leake, 26, would be an intriguing addition to the middle of the A's rotation.
Unless otherwise noted/linked, all statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs; All payroll and salary information courtesy of Cot's Contracts. All player comparisons link to Baseball Prospectus.
Want to talk Oakland's offseason plans or anything baseball related? Hit me up on Twitter: @RickWeinerBR
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