Complete 2014-15 Team Red Sox Offseason Preview and Predictions
The last time the Red Sox finished in last place in the AL East, they went on to win the World Series.
A year after that aforementioned World Series, Boston is back in last place.
The team could just never seem to get going as several pitchers didn't perform up to par and the lineup struggled to drive in runs. The attempt to phase in two rookie position players—Jackie Bradley Jr. in center field and Xander Bogaerts at shortstop—didn't go as planned. The team threw in the white towel at the trade deadline by trading starting pitchers Jon Lester and John Lackey for offensive pieces in an attempt to retool the lineup quickly for 2015 contention.
Can the team follow up with its fourth World Series title in 12 seasons? In order for that question to be answered, the Red Sox have five important questions they must answer first in order to prepare for an offseason in which the team could go in many different directions:
- What is the Red Sox's payroll outlook?
- Which current Red Sox players are entering free agency?
- What holes will the team need to fill?
- Who are potential free-agent targets for the Red Sox?
- Are there any possible trades the Red Sox may pursue?
Let's take a look at the 2014-15 Red Sox offseason preview, complete with predictions.
2015 Red Sox Payroll Outlook
1 of 5
According to Barry Petchesky of Deadspin, the Red Sox opened the season with a $162.8 million payroll. That figure declined slightly through the end of the season thanks to trading away Jake Peavy, Jon Lester and John Lackey most primarily.
As Baseball Prospectus' Cot's Contracts calculates, the Red Sox are currently sitting at a $158.4 million payroll. This is slightly higher than 2013's payroll ($154.6 million), but nowhere near the heights of 2010-2012, when the average payroll was $169,060,476.
However, with the 2014 luxury tax of $189 million holding steady and major figures in the Red Sox front office suggesting the team will be active in the trade market, it's possible the Red Sox will return to their spending ways.
Chairman Tom Werner told WEEI on Sept. 11 that "we've got a lot of money to spend and we're determined to go into the free agent market and improve the team."
The team should have ample amounts of money to do just that, as it currently has just $106 million on the books for the 2015 season. This does not include players eligible for arbitration, such as Junichi Tazawa, Daniel Nava and possibly Rubby De La Rosa. However, it's unlikely these players get sizable bumps, so allocating $5 million to arbitration-eligible contracts seems reasonable. We're now at $111 million.
In addition, that payroll figure does not include players making the league minimum who are not eligible for arbitration, such as Xander Bogaerts, Joe Kelly, Will Middlebrooks and so on. Another $5 million should be added here, which allocates roughly seven to 10 league-minimum players—both on and off the 25-man active roster to Boston.
Further, assume the Red Sox want to save $5 million for in-season acquisitions to give them a bit of a buffer before hitting the luxury-tax ceiling. Now the team has a $116 million payroll, plus $5 million held back, giving the club $68 million in 2015 money to spend. Theoretically, this means the Red Sox have the space to add three free agents making $20 million apiece.
Red Sox Free Agents
2 of 5
Due to the volume of trading the Red Sox did this season, the team only has three free agents of note: closer Koji Uehara, backup catcher David Ross and reliever Burke Badenhop.
Uehara was seemingly a lock to return to Boston, either by signing a contract extension or receiving a qualifying offer. The latter was an attractive proposition for Boston: While the right-hander would be pitching at age 40, he had demonstrated over the previous two seasons his capability to be a high-level closer.
Further, no team would offer Uehara a contract better than a $15 million salary if it cost them a draft pick as well. And of course, Boston would gladly take Uehara back on a one-year deal.
However, the 2013 American League Championship Series MVP's implosion, in which he registered a whopping 19.29 ERA from Aug. 16 to Sept. 4 (10 runs in 4.2 innings), has made even a qualifying offer in doubt. At this stage, it appears as if Uehara may have cost himself millions of dollars in a mere six-game span.
PREDICTION: The qualifying offer decision is made moot when the club announces a one-year, $12 million extension.
Ross seems like a virtual lock to return, barring a trade. Available free agents who can catch are few and far in between, fronted by Russell Martin, who will command big dollars. It doesn't make sense for the team to sign Martin with top prospect Blake Swihart a year or less away. And no other free-agent catcher presents a compelling case over bringing back Ross, a respected clubhouse veteran and mentor to Swihart.
PREDICTION: Ross does not re-sign, as the Red Sox go in a different direction. (Stay tuned.)
Skipper John Farrell is interested in bringing Badenhop back to the bullpen due to his "reliability over multiple years," Alex Speier of WEEI tweeted. Badenhop himself touted to Speier the value of his consistency as a reason why teams should be interested in signing the right-hander, also noting that he understands he won't break the bank as a free agent and is content pitching in the middle of a bullpen.
PREDICTION: The Red Sox bring Badenhop back on a two-year deal. His consistency and ability to get ground-ball outs should make him a perfect fit in the middle of the bullpen.
Holes to Fill
3 of 5
The Red Sox's offensive roster for 2015 appears to be set at every position in the starting lineup except third base:
C Christian Vazquez
1B Mike Napoli
2B Dustin Pedroia
SS Xander Bogaerts
3B Will Middlebrooks
LF Allen Craig
CF Rusney Castillo
RF Yoenis Cespedes
DH David Ortiz
You'll note the absence of two players from the above lineup: Shane Victorino and Mookie Betts.
Victorino is currently recovering from season-ending injury and is likely to open the season as a bench player for Boston unless he is dealt in spring training when he can prove he is healthy. Meanwhile, there appears to be no spot for Betts on the team unless Craig opens the season on the bench as well.
A logical place to put Betts would be at third base, where the Red Sox may not be prepared to hand the job back to Middlebrooks after a poor season. However, as NESN reports, manager John Farrell has no interest in trying to see if Betts can handle either shortstop or third base.
So that's one hole.
Another hole—two, actually—the Red Sox need to fill is in the starting lineup. After dealing away Lester and Lackey, no pitcher emerged as a viable ace or No. 2 starter, so Boston will be on the hunt to find two pitchers to fill the top of the rotation.
The back of the rotation seems pretty set, with Clay Buchholz, Joe Kelly and Rubby De La Rosa rounding out the rotation.
In the bullpen, the club will have to find a left-handed reliever to replace the traded Andrew Miller along with Craig Breslow, whose club option is a lock to be declined after a poor season. That will be all the team may do on the bullpen front if it can bring back Koji Uehara to close...otherwise, it'll need a closer as well.
Off the bench, the club will certainly have Brock Holt in a super utility role. It will also carry two outfielders on the team. Currently, the team will pick between Victorino, Craig and Daniel Nava for those roles. Adding in David Ross as backup catcher should round out the bench.
.png?w=256)
Red Sox Free-Agent Targets
4 of 5
As mentioned in the previous slide, the Red Sox will need a third baseman, two starting pitchers and a left-handed reliever.
Ideally, the club would acquire a left-handed batter at third base to help even out a lineup that is currently projected to have exactly one player who can bat left-handed (DH David Ortiz).
Could the team go the trade route? Sure, but that's unlikely. The club still believes in Middlebrooks and the power he can bring. Boston also has prospect Garin Cecchini ready for the majors, and the Red Sox won't want to stand in the way of either player breaking out.
It could be an entirely different story in 2016, but the guess here is that the Red Sox will give third base one more season to play out in Middlebrooks' or Cecchini's favor.
It could be as simple as handing Holt, who bats left-handed, a starting job, but with the way Holt fell on his face in the second half, that's unlikely for a team already prepared to give away a lineup spot with the anemic bat of Christian Vazquez.
Two impending free agents who are switch-hitters are Chase Headley and Alberto Callaspo.
Headley split the 2014 season between the Padres and Yankees, hitting for a collective .243/.328/.372 line in 470 at-bats. However, his career has a more enticing .265/.347/.409 line attached to it.
Callaspo, meanwhile, ended his first full season with the Oakland Athletics by hitting for a disappointing .223/.291/.290 line. Like Headley, his career line is better at .267/.330/.370, but even that is a step behind Headley. At this stage in his career, Callaspo appears to be a backup option.
PREDICTION: The Red Sox sign Headley to a one-year contract.
As far as the starting pitchers go, Boston will be aggressive on any and all pitchers capable of fronting the rotation.
The list starts with Jon Lester, who could return to the Red Sox on a sizable contract. Also joining Lester as an option to front the rotation is Tigers ace Max Scherzer, as well as Royals ace James Shields. There's a whole host of other viable options as well, particularly for the No. 2 spot in the rotation: Brandon McCarthy, Jason Hammel, Francisco Liriano and Ervin Santana stick out.
The team will certainly want at least one left-handed starter in the rotation, so Liriano is a viable option for Boston if Lester does not return. The club could also dabble in the trade market and have been linked to Cole Hamels from the Phillies. The two have continued to scout each other's teams even after the trade deadline, as Nick Cafardo of The Boston Globe reports. Where there's smoke, there tends to be fire.
Finally, Kenta Maeda is expected to be posted this offseason from Japan, as Cafardo writes. Maeda is considered a "smaller version of Masahiro Tanaka." The Red Sox will absolutely meet the posting fee in order to meet with Maeda, but beyond that, there's no way to know how serious Boston will be about signing Maeda.
PREDICTION: The Red Sox sign Shields to a five-year contract north of $100 million.
Finally, the team will look at bullpen options. Including players under contract in addition to the projected returns of Koji Uehara and Burke Badenhop, there are three potential spots open.
At least one figures to be filled internally by either Brandon Workman, Allen Webster, Alex Wilson, Anthony Ranaudo or Tommy Layne. The final spot in the bullpen will likely be filled via the trade market, and the team could shell out for a reliever making big bucks in their final season of arbitration such as the Nationals' Tyler Clippard.
Regardless of a Clippard trade, the club will still need a front-line reliever to lock batters down, preferably of the southpaw variety. The team just so happens to have a former player hitting the market this year that would be perfect: Andrew Miller.
While Miller will command a sizeable contract, the Red Sox have money to burn and know exactly what they are getting in Miller. The left-hander is already proven in Boston and the team has reams of medical, performance and anecdotal data on Miller.
PREDICTION: Miller signs a three-year contract to return to Boston for a contract around $25 million.
Potential Red Sox Trades
5 of 5
As mentioned in the previous slide, there's been a lot linking Cole Hamels to the Red Sox. You may also recall reading earlier that there was no current spot in the lineup for Mookie Betts.
While Betts has turned heads with his play this year, culminating in a .291/.368/.444 line, you have to give up something to get something. Cole Hamels is a very good get, and it will cost Betts to get Hamels, plus more.
While this particular author would love to see Betts on the 2015 roster manning an outfield spot, it doesn't appear that will end up being the case unless the team can somehow trade Shane Victorino and willing to send Allen Craig to the bench. While that's entirely possible, the guess here is that Red Sox fans will be watching Betts from afar.
PREDICTION: The Red Sox trade for Hamels in a package that includes giving up Betts.
The Red Sox could swing a trade for a third baseman in lieu of signing Chase Headley, as was predicted in a prior slide. That's not likely to happen because of several internal options to man third base, but what could happen is a trade for a catcher more offensively minded than Christian Vazquez.
That would knock Vazquez into the backup slot, which would allow the Red Sox to let David Ross walk. This possibility is a viable one, given that Vazquez has never been known for swinging a stick and hit .240/.308/.309 in 175 at-bats for Boston.
Further, as NESN's Ricky Doyle writes, team president Larry Lucchino says the team has the "financial wherewithal" to make some steps and admits the team relied too much on trusting young players to produce.
The Phillies could deal Carlos Ruiz, who has two years left on his contract. Also potentially available could be San Diego's Rene Rivera, Detroit's Alex Avila, Houston's Jason Castro and Arizona's Miguel Montero.
PREDICTION: The Red Sox trade for Avila, who is a free agent after the season.
Other trades the Red Sox will explore will likely be for a reliever. There are too many possibilities to count as there are numerous relievers who could all fit with Boston. However, Tyler Clippard of the Nationals is an intriguing option.
Clippard has quietly been one of the best relievers the past six seasons and will be entering arbitration for the final time. He has a real chance to make at least $7.5 million next season, which may be too much for Washington to sustain given it will also need to find a closer, second baseman, and pay Doug Fister and Drew Storen sizable figures through arbitration.
Clippard would make a lot of sense paired up with Andrew Miller to set up Koji Uehara, which would give the Red Sox a deep and dominant bullpen.
PREDICTION: The Red Sox make at least one trade for a quality reliever.
.png?w=480)
.jpg?w=600 "Colts Release Kenny Moore")
