NFL Crapshoot, Week 3: San Diego Chargers to Run into Buffalo Bills Buzzsaw

Did you see that Atlanta Falcons-Tampa Bay Buccaneers game? Terrible.

A buddy of mine and I have always had competing theories as to whether or not the NFL had a mercy rule. Like, beyond the rulebook, could there ever be a point where a blowout got so out-of-control that Ed Hochuli could pull out a white flag, heave it in the air, throw up the “X” sign and send everybody home?

I always argued there had to be a mercy rule, if nothing else, for the sake of humanity. I was wrong. So wrong.

The Falcons seemed to have a double-digit lead before the conclusion of the National Anthem. Once they hit 21, it was like the Buccaneers didn’t even want to be there.

Between driving home in Los Angeles traffic and catching the second-half of the game at my apartment, I was able to hear both Mike Mayock (on radio) and Phil Simms (on television) say they have never seen so many wide receivers that wide open.

Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images

Me neither. Welcome to Thursday Night Football.

If you really want to see how bullet-proof the NFL is, forget the ratings surge (from Dominic Patten of Deadline.com) in the midst of off-the-field crisis. Look no further than continued growth of Thursday Night Football, despite being defined by low-quality, turnover-prone football games featuring at least one unprepared team.

It’s both embarrassing and impressive at the same time.

The same could be said about the San Diego Chargers, who followed up their annual Monday Night Football choke-job with an improbable victory against elite competition. Last time we spoke, I foresaw a bounce-back performance from San Diego which would prove to be my lone correct prediction.

This time? Not so much.

Here’s what I know will happen

I know the Buffalo Bills (-2.5) will cover against the San Diego Chargers (Line from Oddschecker.com)

This is a tricky line, and since ballooning from opening minus-1 point spread at Westgate Superbook (h/t Vegasinsider.com). Currently, the value seems to have crept into San Diego’s favor.

The Chargers still make for a dicey bet coming off a win over the reigning Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks, arguably their biggest regular-season win under Mike McCoy. They now must travel across three time zones to play the Bills in the early game.

The travel scenario is old hat for West Coast teams. It is by no means a death knell as evidenced by last season’s 10:00 a.m. East Coast victories by the Chargers themselves in Philadelphia and Jacksonville. But the Bills home-field advantage is among the best in the NFL.

Ralph Wilson Stadium is akin to Century Link Fiend in Seattle. The loud, intimate environment mirrors a college atmosphere. And while the Bills’ 2-0 record may be deceiving, fans will remain energized for the strong start of the first-place Bills.

To Buffalo, San Diego is a statement game. San Diego’s statement game was last week. For them, this is the game after.

Here’s what I think will happen

I think the Super Bowl rematch will be more competitive.

Let’s just say the game will be decided by one possession either way. In a league where there are so many controls to prevent dynasties, revenge is one heck of a difference-making motivator.

The implied mission statement of the 2014 Denver Broncos is to avenge their Super Bowl embarrassment by reaching the big game again and winning.

It’s too early for that right now, but beating the Seahawks is the best alternative. I’m not saying that’s what’s going to happen, but the Broncos remember 43-8. They’ll do everything in their power to make sure it never happens again.

Jeff Zelevansky/Getty Images

This week’s film session for the Denver Broncos should just be the Super Bowl XLVIII episode of NFL Replay in its entirety. Talk about motivation.

Take out the 2013 Arizona Cardinals and the Seahawks are invincible at home in the Russell Wilson era. I don’t know if a fired-up Broncos team can even pull it off.

But the Denver Broncos offseason has been dedicated to building a more athletic defense to chase Russell Wilson around. That, and the bad taste in their mouths, should make this game competitive up until the final play.

Here’s what I’m probably wrong about

I’m probably wrong, but the Giants will beat the Houston Texans outright

The Houston Texans defense is legit. For all we know, the team itself could be legit (by the way, if they’re 3-1 or 4-1 by the time Jadeveon Clowney is ready to come back, they’ll steal this division from the undermanned Colts).

But Houston’s first two games have come at home against a Washington Redskins team with a rusty Robert Griffin III in a new offense, and on the road against the Oakland Raiders, arguably the worst team in the NFL.

The Houston Texans have been outgained in yardage in both of their wins (yes, even against the Raiders, albeit due to garbage-time yards), which makes their 2-0 start as sketchy as a Roger Goodell press conference.

Houston’s victory over the Raiders last week was a turnover-influenced blowout, causing them to enter Week 3 with too much value.

The Giants are still learning a new offense, and showed more signs of life during last week’s home loss to Arizona, especially with the emergence of tight end Larry Donnell.

Staring down the barrel of another 0-3 start, the New York Giants desperation at home should be enough to overcome an inflated Houston Texan team.

Overall 2014 NFL Crapshoot Record: 1-2

Follow @ThisIsNasty