10 MLB Stars Who Must Show Up in Pennant Race's Final Week
Seven days. That is all the time some MLB stars have to make their mark as the pennant race has officially entered its final week.
With a couple of division winners and both wild-card spots still very much undetermined, the need for the best players in the game to show up night after night has never been greater.
Who are the 10 with the most at stake, though?
Before we get into the answer to that question, let’s lay the foundation.
First off, players on clubs that have already clinched their division will not be included. For the purpose of this article, they have already done their part.
Also, if a player is already performing at a high level, they will not be mentioned. That means that the entirety of the Pittsburgh Pirates offense will not be included. After all, each of the regulars had at least a 125 wRC+ in September when play began Sunday, per FanGraphs, and the unit has been on point for some time.
Here are the 10 MLB stars who must come up clutch in the final week of the pennant race.
Alex Gordon, LF, Kansas City Royals
1 of 10
From the beginning of the season through Aug. 31, Kansas City Royals left fielder Alex Gordon put together a .280/.355/.457 slash line with 18 home runs, 63 RBI and 29 doubles, per splits at Baseball-Reference.
When play began on Sunday, however, he’d only put up a .153/.296/.237 slash line in 71 plate appearances since then. Sure, he’d stolen four bags, driven in seven and scored 10 runs thanks to a 15.5 percent walk rate, but he’s only been good for a 61 wRC+ and checks in with a minus-1.9 offensive rating, per FanGraphs.
It must be noted that the majority of the Royals lineup has underperformed in September. Frankly, only Nori Aoki, Lorenzo Cain and Eric Hosmer have put up solid numbers this month. The offensive woes are a collective effort.
That said, the onus is on Gordon to lead the club. And with the playoffs in the balance, he is going to have to step up, and a day off is out of the question. As manager Ned Yost noted, “He’s too valuable in what he does on the other side of the ball,” per The Kansas City Star’s Andy McCullough.
Ian Kinsler, 2B, Detroit Tigers
2 of 10
The Detroit Tigers are in a fight with the Kansas City Royals for the AL Central title. And while Miguel Cabrera, J.D. Martinez and Victor Martinez are ripping the cover off the baseball this month, second baseman Ian Kinsler is struggling mightily.
Consider: Going into action on Sunday, he’d put up a woeful .238/.256/.388 slash line and was worth a 72 wRC+ in September, per FanGraphs. Worse, he’s only scored eight runs and had a dismal .243 batting average on balls in play. What that last number tells us is that Kinsler simply isn’t making solid contact often enough.
For as bad as those statistics are, however, the metrics that are most troubling are his .256 on-base percentage and 1.2 percent walk rate. Were he able to get on base more frequently, the offense would be even more productive than it has been.
The bottom line is this: Kinsler bats leadoff for one of the most dynamic offenses in MLB. If he can’t flip the switch, there is a chance the Tigers won’t take the Central.
And that is not an ideal scenario by any stretch of the imagination. After all, they would face off against either the Oakland A's or the Seattle Mariners should they end up taking one of the wild-card spots, and each of those clubs has a pitching staff that is capable of locking the Tigers down.
Austin Jackson, CF, Seattle Mariners
3 of 10
Since his acquisition from the Detroit Tigers at the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline, Seattle Mariners center fielder Austin Jackson has a .247/.284/.284 slash line with no home runs, 13 RBI and only six extra-base hits. In other words, he has needed to work on his game for some time now.
The final week of the regular season takes on added importance, however, as the Mariners entered play on Sunday a half-game behind the Oakland A’s and Kansas City Royals for the second wild-card spot.
Unfortunately, September has proven unkind to Jackson. In 19 games, he has put up a .221/.247/.234 slash line and has an unacceptable 35 wRC+, according to FanGraphs. Worse yet, he is striking out 24.7 percent of the time and has a .013 ISO (difference between batting average and slugging percentage).
It should be noted that early last week Jackson admitted there was a “timing” problem at the plate, adding that he needs “to keep it simple up there,” per Matt Pence and Ryan Divish from The Seattle Times. Well, the work he put in to correct the problem hasn’t worked, and if he can’t set the tone at the top of the lineup on a consistent basis, no amount of pitching can get the M’s into the postseason.
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John Lackey, SP, St. Louis Cardinals
4 of 10
St. Louis Cardinals right-hander Shelby Miller is 2-0 with a 0.69 ERA in September, per FanGraphs. Adam Wainwright is 4-0 with a 1.69 ERA, and Lance Lynn has a 2.00 ERA over his last four starts.
What about John Lackey? Well, he is 1-1 with a 5.17 ERA and a .347 batting average against on balls in play in three starts, covering 15.2 innings.
Making those numbers more alarming is that it took a dominant effort against the Cincinnati Reds on Friday night (7.2 IP, ER, 5 K) for them to look that bad. In other words, he’s pitching poorly.
It must be noted that Lackey had his start before last skipped because of a “dead arm,” and as D.J. Short from HardballTalk wrote, “it was just the Reds,” so there is still a great deal of concern surrounding his right arm. But the outing is a good sign nonetheless.
Either way, a postseason appearance is in the Cardinals’ future, but the Pittsburgh Pirates aren’t going anywhere. If Lackey comes through in his final start (we are assuming he will get one more), it could mean the difference between the Cardinals winning the NL Central and making the postseason as a wild-card team.
Rick Porcello, SP, Detroit Tigers
5 of 10
Going into his start Sunday afternoon against the Kansas City Royals, Detroit Tigers right-hander Rick Porcello had a 2.45 ERA, 2.99 FIP and 12 strikeouts in 14.2 innings pitched over his last two starts, per FanGraphs. That is exactly what manager Brad Ausmus needs him to continue doing.
Unfortunately, Porcello is prone to giving up a bad outing.
In his first start this month, for example, he gave up five earned runs on 10 hits in only three innings. He missed his spots with regularity, and the results could have been worse. And the start before that, he couldn’t pitch around fielding gaffes and gave up six runs (two earned) in a loss to the Chicago White Sox.
All told, Porcello is the key to the Tigers’ chances. Max Scherzer and David Price appear to be fine, and Justin Verlander seems to have turned a corner.
If Porcello is up to the task in his final start of the regular season, the chance that the Tigers can outlast the Royals figures to be high.
Josh Donaldson, 3B, Oakland A's
6 of 10
What in the world has happened to Oakland A’s third baseman Josh Donaldson?
Coming into September, he’d compiled at least a .477 slugging percentage and an .800 OPS in every month this season except June, when he slugged .286 and finished with a .509 OPS. In his 18 games going into action Sunday, he’d put up a meager .200/.241/.320 slash line and has only managed seven extra-base hits, per splits pulled from Baseball-Reference.
That is not going to get the job done as his club continues to struggle.
To be sure, the A’s haven’t fallen in the standings because of Donaldson alone. Coco Crisp, Eric Sogard and Brandon Moss all have a wRC+ under 70, per FanGraphs, and have largely hurt the A’s more than they’ve helped, but they weren’t in the MVP conversation for much of the season.
Donaldson is the heart and soul of the A’s lineup. Without him coming up clutch down the stretch, manager Bob Melvin’s club is in danger of going from first place at the All-Star break to missing the postseason altogether.
Hunter Pence, RF, San Francisco Giants
7 of 10
When the San Francisco Giants are at their best on offense, Buster Posey, Pablo Sandoval and Hunter Pence are all hitting at a high level.
So far this month, only Posey has shown up. And between Sandoval and Pence, the onus is on the latter to come up clutch over the season’s final days.
Pence has more speed than Sandoval, which puts opposing pitchers on the defensive for the guys who hit after him in the order. Without his presence on the basepaths, the offense simply isn’t doing everything it is capable of.
None of this is meant to suggest that Sandoval can continue hitting as poorly as he has been, posting a .217/.288/.300 slash line in 66 trips to the plate this month, according to FanGraphs. He needs to step up as well, but Pence is the piece in the middle of the lineup that must come through.
So far in September, Pence is slashing out at .222/.300/.317 with two home runs and only eight RBI in 70 plate appearances, per those same splits. As you can see, improvement is needed.
Matt Adams, 1B, St. Louis Cardinals
8 of 10
To be sure, St. Louis Cardinals first baseman Matt Adams has regressed since last season. His batting average, on-base percentage and slugging are all down from a year ago when he exploded onto the national stage.
He was still playing quite well, however, compiling a .296/.325/.469 slash line with 13 home runs and 57 RBI through Aug. 31, per Baseball-Reference. Then the calendar flipped to September.
In 59 trips to the plate this month, as of beginning of play on Sunday, Adams has a .208/.271/.358 slash line, two home runs, nine RBI and has only been worth a 72 wRC+, per FanGraphs.
To be sure, Adams is not alone. Jhonny Peralta (.203/.276/.362), Yadier Molina (.242/.292/.303) and Matt Carpenter (.219/.338/.281) are all struggling, per those same splits, but Adams is the club’s cleanup hitter. As a result, he gets the most opportunities to drive in runs, which is something the Cardinals have struggled with all season.
If he can get his production back to where it was earlier in the season, the Cardinals will be in better shape heading into the postseason.
Gerrit Cole, SP, Pittsburgh Pirates
9 of 10
After losing their first three games in September, the Pittsburgh Pirates had won 12 out of 15 heading into action on Sunday. And it’s been a team effort, with the offense taking advantage of almost every mistake and the pitching staff putting up a 2.17 ERA and a 2.82 FIP as a unit, per team splits at FanGraphs.
It’s been an exercise in dominance.
If there is one player who needs to be dominant, however, it’s right-hander Gerrit Cole. To be sure, he isn’t pitching poorly this month, posting a 3-1 record with a 3.41 FIP, according to FanGraphs, but he could be doing better.
Look no further for proof than his .342 batting average against on balls in play or the fact that 11.1 percent of all fly balls this month have left the yard. Thankfully, he has been able to limit the damage—for the most part.
And with Francisco Liriano pitching incredibly well as of late, Cole’s production takes on added significance, for if the Pirates make it to the National League Division Series, having two starters at the top of their games will be a difference-maker.
Tim Hudson, SP, San Francisco Giants
10 of 10
San Francisco Giants right-hander Tim Hudson is having a rough go of it lately, posting a 9.92 ERA and getting hit to the tune of a .380 batting average against in his last four starts, per splits at Baseball-Reference.
And it’s not like he’s laying eggs against only elite teams. Just this month, he's surrendered five earned runs to the Colorado Rockies and yielded four earned runs to the San Diego Padres, according to game logs at FanGraphs.
He has been so hittable that following his outing on Friday against the Padres, Short wrote that “it’s now likely that Hudson won’t be in the Giants’ rotation if they advance to the NLDS.”
With Madison Bumgarner, Jake Peavy and Yusmeiro Petit all pitching well, it is on Hudson to prove Short wrong.
To be sure, Ryan Vogelsong is also struggling and could easily have gotten this spot, but he will likely be fine, and Hudson’s ability to pitch well has larger ramifications. See, Petit is best served as a reliever, and without Hudson in the rotation, manager Bruce Bochy will have to scramble to find the right combination of pitchers in the bullpen should he be forced to start Petit in the postseason.
Unless otherwise noted, all traditional, team and historical statistics are courtesy of FanGraphs and are accurate as of game time Sunday, Sept. 21. Transaction, injury and game information are courtesy of MLB.com.
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