Final 2014 Rankings of Boston Red Sox's Top 10 Prospects

The 2014 season is officially in the books for each one of the Boston Red Sox’s minor league affiliates thanks to Pawtucket’s loss in the Triple-A championship on Tuesday night.

Yet 2014 was still a wildly successful season for many of Boston’s MiLB teams and the players of which they are comprised. The Red Sox came into the season boasting one of baseball’s best and deepest farm systems, and while much has changed over the past five-plus months, they still possess a wealth of talent in their minor league system.

That being said, now is the perfect time to take a look at the new landscape of Boston’s minor league system and to give one final, end-of-season ranking for the best of the Red Sox’s prospects.

As always, prospects must be rookie-eligible (under 130 plate appearances, 50 innings pitched in the majors) to qualify for this list. Teams are listed by the highest level each prospect reached this season. All stats are as of Sept. 15, 2014.

Graduated Prospects: Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts, Jackie Bradley Jr., Allen Webster, Brandon Workman, Christian Vazquez

Red Sox Prospects No. 15-11

Kelly O'Connor, www.sittingstill.net

15. Trey Ball, LHP, Low-A Greenville

The seventh overall pick in the 2013 draft, Ball had an uninspiring first full professional season. The 20-year-old posted a 4.68 ERA in 100 innings pitched in Greenville, striking out just 15.1 percent of opposing batters while issuing free passes to 8.7 percent of the competition.

Sox fans can take solace in the fact that Ball was much better from July 1 on (2.70 ERA) than in April, May and June (7.27 ERA), but Ball has a long way to go to restore faith in his prospect status.  

14. Edwin Escobar, LHP, Boston Red Sox

Escobar came over from the Giants in the Jake Peavy trade, and while he’s not a spectacular prospect in his own right, he represents parts of a solid return for two-plus months of a mid-rotation starting pitcher.

In 138.1 combined innings in Pawtucket and Fresno, Escobar allowed a 4.94 ERA, posting decent but uninspiring strikeout and walk rates. Those numbers jell with the industry consensus, exemplified by Jeff Moore of Baseball Prospectus here (subscription required), that suggests Escobar’s future is likely to come as a back-end starter or a swingman in the bullpen.

13. Sean Coyle, INF, Double-A Portland

For the second consecutive season, Coyle missed substantial playing time due to injury, racking up just 384 PA in Double-A in 2014. But Coyle showed off his impressive collection of offensive tools when healthy, hitting .295/.371/.512 with 16 homers and 13 steals.

Stronger than his 5’8”, 175-pound frame would suggest, the 22-year-old stings the ball with authority and draws natural (but unfair) comparisons to Dustin Pedroia. Coyle has the ability to play second and third base and should at least carve out a career as a bat-first utility player, though there’s some second-division starter potential here, too.

12. Deven Marrero, SS, Triple-A Pawtucket

When the season began, many viewed Marrero as an all-glove, no-bat shortstop destined for a future as a major league utility infielder. Then the ASU product hit .291/.371/.433 in Double-A, lending credence to evaluators who thought he might be able to start in Boston at some point.

Unfortunately, Marrero hit .210/.260/.285 in 202 PA in Pawtucket to end the year, and it’s clear that the 24-year-old needs more seasoning at that level before he can be counted on in any capacity in the majors. Still, his above-average defensive ability from shortstop will likely carry him to some form of an MLB career.

11. Brian Johnson, LHP, Double-A Portland

If you’re just scouting the stat sheet, Johnson deserves to be five or six spots higher on this list. The 23-year-old southpaw held Double-A batters to a 1.75 ERA in 118 innings across 20 starts, fanning 21.9 percent of the competition.

However, most scouting reports, such as this one from Baseball Prospectus (subscription required), suggest that Johnson doesn’t have the stuff to consistently miss bats at the MLB level. Look for Johnson to try and continue to prove doubters wrong at Pawtucket next season, but keep his modest ceiling in mind.

10. Michael Chavis, SS, GCL Red Sox

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2014 Stats
GCL: 150 PA, .269/.347/.425, 10.0 BB%, 25.3 K%, 12 2B, 1 HR, 16 RBI, 5 SB, 3 CS

Boston’s first pick and the No. 26 overall pick from the 2014 draft, Chavis had a solid if unspectacular professional debut in the Gulf Coast League. The 19-year-old got off to a slow start in July, but he tore the cover off the ball in August, hitting .372/.430/.590 in 86 PA.

According to Baseball Prospectus’ Chris Mellen (subscription required), Chavis was one of the best pure hitters in his draft class, and he possesses “loose hands and bat-to-ball ability that lead many to believe he'll develop into a plus hitter for average.” While he plays shortstop now, according to Over The Monster’s Joon Lee, Chavis is likely to end up at third base, in the outfield or possibly even behind the plate defensively.

We’re still a long ways away from seeing Chavis anywhere near the major leagues, of course, but Chavis should enjoy a long stay on Boston’s top 10 list if he stays healthy. The ultimate upside here is that of an everyday player and No. 2 hitter with deceptive power.

9. Rafael Devers, 3B, GCL Red Sox

Kelly O'Connor, www.sittingstill.net

2014 Stats
DSL: 127 PA, .337/.441/.529, 15.7 BB%, 15.7 K%, 5 2B, 3 HR, 21 RBI, 5 SB, 1 CS
GCL: 174 PA, .312/.374/.484, 8.0 BB%, 17.2 K%, 11 2B, 4 HR, 36 RBI, 1 SB, 0 CS

It’s difficult to have a more successful professional debut than the one Devers had in 2014. Baseball America’s No. 3 international prospect for the 2013 signing period, Devers exploded onto the scene this season, showcasing an impressive collection of offensive tools.

The 17-year-old quickly proved he was too advanced for the Dominican Summer League despite his age, slugging .529 at the level and walking as often as he struck out. Devers then moved up to the GCL, where he was similarly effective, driving in 36 runs in 42 games.

According to a recent breakdown by Baseball Prospectus’ Jeff Moore (subscription required), Devers shows plus bat speed, barrel control and is already willing to work deep counts. Moore believes Devers would be “perhaps in consideration for the first overall selection” in this year’s draft were he born in the U.S. and eligible.

It’s important to note that Devers is still likely three to five years away from seeing the majors, and it may be a while before he moves up this list thanks to his ETA. That being said, he’s arguably Boston’s highest-upside prospect, and he provides intriguing power potential for an organization that’s struggled to produce power hitters.

8. Anthony Ranaudo, RHP, Boston Red Sox

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2014 Stats
Triple-A: 24 G, 24 GS, 138 IP, 2.61 ERA, 19.5 K%, 9.5 BB%, 1.20 WHIP, 9 HR
MLB: 6 G, 6 GS, 32.1 IP, 5.29 ERA, 9.2 K%, 10.6 BB%, 1.48 WHIP, 10 HR

Ranaudo has shown fans and scouts both why there are so many reasons to like him and why his future may come with a very modest ceiling in 2014.

On the one hand, the 25-year-old LSU product demonstrated an ability to produce quality starts and limit the number of baserunners allowed in a very successful stint in Pawtucket. Ranaudo was especially dominant in June and July and looked like he was rounding into form as a potential back-end MLB starter.

Since coming up to Boston, though, Ranaudo has been hit hard and hit often. He’s allowed 33 hits in 32.1 innings pitched, has walked more batters than he’s struck out and has already given up a whopping 10 home runs in six starts. He’s getting destroyed when he leaves pitches up in the zone and demonstrating a startling inability to miss bats.

The Red Sox will likely give Ranaudo more time as a starter in Pawtucket next year in the hopes that he can refine his arsenal and better learn to spot his fastball. His recent struggles lend credence to the notion that he may ultimately find success in the bullpen, however, and Ranaudo has a limited window to make an impact as a starter given his competition.

7. Matt Barnes, RHP, Boston Red Sox

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2014 Stats
Triple-A: 23 G, 22 GS, 127.2 IP, 3.95 ERA, 19.1 K%, 8.6 BB%, 1.29 WHIP, 8 HR
MLB: 2 G, 0 GS, 4 IP, 4.50 ERA, 26.3 K%, 5.3 BB%, 1.75 WHIP, 0 HR

Barnes is pitching out of the bullpen in multi-inning stints for the Red Sox right now, but his assignment is likely just a temporary one. It wasn't so long ago, however, that Barnes looked like he might be headed for a permanent transition toward relieving amidst an uninspiring season in Triple-A. 

Only July 12, Barnes found himself with a 5.06 ERA in 74.2 innings in Pawtucket. He struck out just 57 batters and gave up 31 free passes in that span, allowing opponents to hit .297/.366/.422 against him.

However, in Barnes' final eight starts in Triple-A, he looked like a completely different pitcher. The 24-year-old allowed just a 2.38 ERA in 53 innings, striking out 46, walking 15 and holding opponents to a .167/.232/.237 line. That performance has restored some confidence in Barnes' ability to become a No. 3 starter at the MLB level. 

Barnes has progressed somewhat slowly for a first-round college arm since his selection in 2011, but he looks poised to take the next step in 2015, cementing himself as a consistent starter and a viable option in the major league rotation. It hasn't always been pretty, but when Barnes keeps his fastball down in the zone and has command of both his curveball and his changeup, he's very difficult to hit. 

6. Eduardo Rodriguez, LHP, Double-A Portland

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2014 Stats
Double-A: 22 G, 22 GS, 120 PA, 3.60 ERA, 21.2 K%, 7.3 BB%, 1.31 WHIP, 6 HR

When Rodriguez came to the Red Sox from the Orioles in the Andrew Miller trade, he was floundering in Double-A. The southpaw posted a 4.79 ERA in 16 starts across 82.2 innings in Bowie, posting a strikeouts-per-nine-innings ratio of just 7.5. At 21, he was fairly young for the league, so his performance wasn’t cause for alarm, but it’s fair to say his prospect value wasn’t at its peak, either.

But since the trade, Rodriguez has shown the promise that made him ESPN Insider Keith Law’s (subscription required) No. 43 prospect before the season began. Rodriguez supported an 0.96 ERA in six starts with Portland, striking out 39 batters and issuing just eight walks in 37.1 innings.

Lauded for his mental makeup and his attractive fastball/slider/changeup tool kit, Rodriguez has the potential to pitch in the middle of an MLB rotation someday. The Red Sox can afford to take it slow with the Venezuelan given their glut of pitchers in the upper minors, but there’s no doubting that Rodriguez is one of their more attractive arms.

Expect the 21-year-old to reach Triple-A at some point in 2015, with a call-up to the majors not totally out of the question.

5. Manuel Margot, CF, High-A Salem

Kelly O'Connor, www.sittingstill.net

2014 Stats
Low-A: 413 PA, .286/.355/.449, 9.0 BB%, 11.9 K%, 20 2B, 10 HR, 45 RBI, 39 SB, 13 CS
High-A: 56 PA, .340/.364/.560, 3.6 BB%, 8.9 K%, 5 2B, 2 HR, 14 RBI, 3 SB, 2 CS

Margot is one of 2014’s more impressive breakout prospects, as the 19-year-old has blossomed from a relatively unknown toolsy outfielder into one of the more interesting center field prospects in the mid-minors.

All of Margot’s tools were on display in his 99-game stint in Low-A Greenville. He hit for a good average, walked at an acceptable rate, scored 35 extra-base hits and swiped 39 bases. There’s certainly room for some refinement here, as Margot was caught stealing 13 times and was prone to falling into mini-slumps at various points in the season. But there’s a ton to like with Margot, too.

According to Baseball Prospectus’ Chris Mellen (subscription required), Margot is a potential “top-of-the-order type with a contact-oriented approach and doubles power,” and he can surprise with more raw power than his frame would suggest. That power was on display in Salem, where Margot slugged .560 in a 16-game stint.

Expect Margot to begin the 2015 season back in High-A, where he’ll work on improving his baserunning, refining his approach at the plate and perfecting his outfield defense. He’s on track to potentially see the majors at some point in late 2016, though, and his top-of-the-order profile is quite attractive.  

4. Garin Cecchini, 3B/OF, Boston Red Sox

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2014 Stats
Triple-A: 458 PA, .263/.341/.371, 17.3 BB%, 17.6 K%, 21 2B, 7 HR, 57 RBI, 11 SB, 1 SB
MLB: 2 PA, .500/.500/.1000, 0.0 BB%, 50.0 K%, 1 2B, 0 HR, 1 RBI, 0 SB, 0 CS

Cecchini is not the first 23-year-old to struggle with his first taste of Triple-A pitching.

You never would’ve known that based on many reactions to Cecchini’s lackluster three-month stretch in the middle of the 2014 season, though. Cecchini fell off of SoxProspects.com’s Top 10 list and missed out on Baseball Prospectus’ (subscription required) midseason Top 50 prospect list thanks to a stretch from May 1 to July 31 that saw him hit .220/.292/.318 in 260 PA.

Those numbers are ugly, to be sure, but Cecchini hit quite well in April and made an adjustment late in the season, too. He hit .333/.413/.500 from August 1 onward and was a force during Pawtucket’s playoff run. Cecchini also added outfield experience to his resume this season, further diversifying his skill set.

It’s true that Cecchini’s ability (or inability) to grow into his power will likely determine whether his future is as a first- or second-division starter. But this is a player with the swing, hand-eye coordination and approach to reach base in the major leagues at a meaningful clip, and he should get the chance to prove so at some point in 2015.

3. Henry Owens, LHP, Triple-A Pawtucket

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2014 Stats
Double-A: 20 G, 20 GS, 121 IP, 2.60 ERA, 25.6 K%, 9.5 BB%, 1.12 WHIP, 6 HR
Triple-A: 6 G, 6 GS, 38 IP, 4.03 ERA, 28.2 K%, 7.7 BB%, 1.16 WHIP, 4 HR

Simply put, Double-A hitters were no match for Owens this season. The lanky left-hander dominated the competition as a member of Portland’s staff, holding opposing batters to a .201/.281/.305 line in 121 innings pitched. He was named to the Eastern League All-Star Game and to the Futures Game for his performance.

A late-season promotion to Triple-A was less kind to Owens, who posted an ERA north of 4.00 in six starts there. However, given his age (22) and the small sample size we’re dealing with, Owens’ pedestrian performance in Pawtucket is hardly enough to put a major dent in his prospect status.

A gap does seem to exist between what Red Sox fans are expecting from Owens and what many evaluators believe his future production will look like. Whereas Owens is sometimes mentioned as an “untouchable” prospect by the fanbase, he’s more likely to be a mid-rotation starter than a future rotation-topper.

Some, such as ESPN Insider Keith Law (subscription required), see a potential “No. 2 or a very good No. 3 starter” in Owens. Others, like Baseball Prospectus’ Chris Mellen (subscription required), view Owens as more of a No. 4 starter.

Yet no matter which source you use, scouts and analysts are largely in agreement that Owens will be a valuable piece of Boston’s rotation, and he could make an impact as soon as next season.

2. Blake Swihart, C, Triple-A Pawtucket

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2014 Stats
Double-A: 380 PA, .300/.353/.487, 7.6 BB%, 17.1 K%, 23 2B, 13 HR, 55 RBI, 7 SB, 1 CS
Triple-A: 71 PA, .261/.282/.377, 2.8 BB%, 21.1 K%, 3 2B, 1 HR, 9 RBI, 1 SB, 0 CS

Is Blake Swihart the best catching prospect in baseball? That’s a fair question to ask after the 22-year-old put together a masterful performance in 2014, transforming himself from a raw talent to a player on the precipice of a major league call-up.

Swihart had yet to show much power before the 2014 season, hitting for decent averages but showcasing more doubles pop than true homer power in 2012 and 2013. But this season, Swihart’s power blossomed in Double-A, and the switch-hitter notched 13 homers and 43 total extra-base hits in 92 games in Portland.

After moving up to Pawtucket late in the season, Swihart was somewhat less productive, as the rigors of catching for a full season took a toll on his body. Still, he held his own in 71 plate appearances and managed to tack on another five extra-base hits during that time.

With Christian Vazquez looking more like an elite backup than a first-division starter, Swihart could very well see significant MLB playing time at some point in 2015. That being said, he could spend the entire year at Triple-A working on perfecting his craft and he’d still be ahead of the curve given his age. He is the heir to Jason Varitek whom Red Sox fans have long been waiting for.

1. Rusney Castillo, OF, Triple-A Pawtucket

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2014 Stats
N/A

Much has been made of Castillo since he signed his megacontract with Boston in August. He’s been billed as Boston’s leadoff man and center fielder of the immediate future and figures to be a key cog in what could be a competitive Red Sox team in 2015. Yet for all the hype, it’s tough to predict what Castillo may become thanks to limited looks from scouts and a lack of statistical information.

We’re not counting any of Castillo’s stats here, since all of his plate appearances have come in playoff games for one level or another, but the few unique scouting reports on Castillo available are interesting.

Dan Farnsworth of FanGraphs took a unique approach to evaluating Castillo, comparing him to players such as Shane Victorino and Melky Cabrera. A piece by Ben Badler of Baseball America details just how Castillo has changed over the years. And Jason Mastrodonato of MassLive.com used information he gained from scouts to put together a profile of Castillo in late August.

Many of those reports suggest that Castillo may be more of a solid regular than a star, but given the lack of production in Boston’s outfield during the first half of the 2014 season, it should be obvious that good, everyday players are quite valuable. Given that Castillo has more upside and is ready for the majors now, he gets to sit atop this list headed into 2015.

We’re cheating a bit here, since Castillo has technically not recorded an MLB plate appearance at the time of publication. But Castillo is slated to make his MLB debut on Wednesday, so we’ll list him as a member of the Red Sox nonetheless.