4 Keys to the Atlanta Braves Sneaking into the 2014 MLB Postseason

The Atlanta Braves are reeling after a 2-7 road trip that has seen them slip to four games out of the National League wild-card race. The team is playing some of its worst baseball right now at the most critical time of the season.

With the thought of the postseason slowly slipping away for the Braves and their fans, what can the team do in the final weeks to reverse course and play into October?

Below are four keys that must happen in order for the Braves to sneak into the 2014 postseason.

Get a batter Posey-like hot

Can one player carry a team?

On August 20, the San Francisco Giants were 1.5 games in front of the Braves for the second wild-card spot. Buster Posey then went on an otherworldly hitting tear, putting up a slash line of .508/.515/.954 for the next 15 games, driving in 21 runs and scoring 19.

The Giants were 10-5 during that span while surging to a four-game lead for the first wild-card spot and solidifying their place in the 2014 postseason.

With 12 games left and four games back for a wild-card spot, the Braves will have to win at least twice as many as they lose. They have struggled all year to find consistently good hitting, but their hot streaks have coincided with a key player getting hot at the plate.

Dave Tulis/Associated Press

From April 1 to 19, the Braves went 12-4 while Freddie Freeman posted a slash line of .441/.521/.797. From July 19 to June 5, Freeman hit .377/.458/.590, and the team went 13-3.

During their last decent stretch, from August 13 to 22, Justin Upton went .444/.523/.861 while the team was 8-2.

With the below-average seasons so many lineup regulars are having, culminating in the worst offensive team in Atlanta since 1989, the Braves need at least one player to carry the team by putting up player-of-the-week-style numbers.

It’s probably too much to hope that multiple batters on this team suddenly find their offensive stride, but one batter getting hot for a couple of weeks could key this offense, which has happened several times already this season.

Change luck in close games

With two one-run losses this weekend in Texas, the Braves have dropped to 24-25 this season in one-run games. Last year they were 27-20 in one-run games last year. That difference in records in close games from last season to this season is the difference in Atlanta being secure in a wild-card spot and the team being four games out.

This is not the fault of the bullpen, which has the second-best save percentage in the National League.

The Braves’ poor record in close games is a result of the overall struggles of their offense. Those struggles extend from their everyday lineup to their bench, where their .174 pinch-hitting average is the worst in the NL. That lack of punch off the bench makes comebacks late in close games difficult.

If the Braves can get a few key pinch hits in the next two weeks, they could flip the script in close games and snag some comeback wins.

Fredi’s lineup card

Part of Atlanta’s offensive woes can be attributed to manager Fredi Gonzalez.

Mike Zarrilli/Getty Images

When making out his lineup card this season, Gonzalez has far too often penciled in poor on-base guys at the top of the lineup. B.J. Upton has started 91 games batting either first or second while posting a .282 on-base percentage in those two spots combined.

This has led the Braves to the fifth-worst on-base percentage from the leadoff spot in the NL. Meanwhile, Jason Heyward has only been penciled into 93 games as the leadoff hitter. His .343 on-base percentage when batting first would be good enough for fourth-best in the NL.

By omitting Heyward from the leadoff spot for 55 games, Gonzalez has turned the team’s table-setter from one of the best spots in the lineup to one of the worst and cost the Braves a lot of run-scoring opportunities.

One of the few jobs a manager has is to fill out an effective lineup card. At least part of the blame for this season’s anemic offense should go to Fredi Gonzalez, who has not optimized enough of his lineups around getting runners on base.

In the final days of the season, a lineup that does a better job of putting on-base guys like Heyward and Phil Gosselin at the top of the order could key more offensive success for this team.

Beat the Bucs

While there is a need to win just about every game from now until the end of the season, the Braves have an opportunity to make up a lot of ground in the wild-card race when they play the Pittsburgh Pirates for four games next week at Turner Field. The Pirates are currently in possession of the second wild-card spot.

Those four games will be the Braves' last four regular-season home games of the year, the end of a 10-game homestand that begins tonight.

On that home stand, Atlanta must first get some wins against the Nationals and Mets. While the Braves only won one of three last week against Washington, Atlanta is 10-6 against the presumptive NL East champs this season.

Atlanta also has a winning record of 9-7 against New York. If the Braves can continue their winning ways against those two NL East foes, and win two of three against both the Nats and Mets this week, then they will likely enter the four-game series against Pittsburgh with a chance to make up significant ground in the wild-card race.

There’s a lot of hope in these keys, a lot that must go 100 percent right for the Braves to win the majority of their remaining games. Even if those things do go right, they’ll still need some help from the other wild-card teams.

If you’re a fan of the Braves, you have to hold out hope that the team can manage a comeback. We’ll see.

Stats above are through the games of September 13, and standings are through the games of September 14 and taken from Baseball-Reference.com.