8 NBA Teams That Will Be Better or Worse Than Expected in 2014-15
Expectations, good or bad, are made to be broken.
Offseason activity has one aim in the NBA: establishing direction. That direction could be deliberately or involuntarily good or bad. The inevitable outcome doesn't matter as much as the motives behind what teams are trying to position themselves for.
Until the regular season actually begins, that is.
Everything is guesswork at this stage. Bars that are set will be adjusted. Standards teams are held to, however high or low, can prove makeshift. Season projections aren't permanent doctrines. For most teams, they will change in some way, shape or form.
This holds doubly true for certain contingents. Plenty of squads are being undervalued or overrated as it pertains to current rosters and last season's performance.
Change may be acknowledged for these teams but inadequately so. The buzz they are generating is insufficient and traveling in a different direction than their offseason improvements or setbacks and their present state of existence should allow.
Worse Than Expected: Indiana Pacers
1 of 8
2013-14 Record: 56-26
Conference Finish: First
Edgar Allan Poe couldn't have imagined—and then penned—a darker, more dreary reality than that which the Indiana Pacers will face this upcoming season.
Whatever drop-off they're expected to have and however horrific their immediate future has been painted won't do their unceremonious fall from grace justice.
Lance Stephenson left for the Charlotte Hornets, bilking the Pacers of a valuable two-way threat who was without question their second-best player. Worse still, Paul George—their best player by far—is expected to miss all of 2014-15 after suffering a compound leg fracture during a Team USA scrimmage.
All of this only adds to the question-mark pile the Pacers left in their wake last season. They closed out 2013-14 in disastrous fashion, going 10-13 through their final 23 games.
Their offense established new levels of anemia, their defense was uncharacteristically vulnerable and they stumbled into the Eastern Conference Finals worse for wear, all hope of unseating the Miami Heat lost long before they actually lost.
Alarms have since been sounded; they just aren't loud enough. Although a playoff berth is off the table, some still have them hanging tough in the mercurial Eastern Conference. The folks over at ESPN.com think they'll win 38 contests, finishing a mere game outside the postseason picture. Related: That's not happening.
This isn't a Pacers team that will flirt with 40 victories. This is a squad, now led by Roy Hibbert, David West and George Hill, that will struggle to eclipse 30 wins.
Expecting Indiana to fare any better is overly optimistic.
Better Than Expected: Minnesota Timberwolves
2 of 8
2013-14 Record: 40-42
Conference Finish: 10th
Losing Kevin Love to the Cleveland Cavaliers certainly dampens the Minnesota Timberwolves' short-term possibilities, but the return on their disgruntled superstar remains understated.
Adding Andrew Wiggins—who projects as a superstar—Anthony Bennett and Thaddeus Young will keep the Timberwolves immediately competitive, assuming everyone else from Ricky Rubio to Nikola Pekovic is healthy.
These Timberwolves are built to run. Thin on defensive talent—specifically rim protection—they have the potential to score with the best. Projects like Zach LaVine and Gorgui Dieng also add intrigue to what might be one of the league's deeper rotations.
Reacting to the Timberwolves' offseason, CBS Sports' Zach Harper preached patience and frugality, writing:
"This hasn't changed the Wolves into a playoff team. They're going to be a team that struggles to win 30 games next season, which is the norm for them lately (it's only happened twice since trading Garnett). But they have a direction, they have potential, and they have hope once again. It's on Saunders to figure out how to realize that potential and turn it into a winning ball club.
"
Questions persist, but the direction Minnesota is taking means everything. The Timberwolves won't make the playoffs in the loaded Western Conference. They most certainly won't match their 40-win total from last year either.
More importantly, though, they're not built to plummet much further down the Western Conference ladder, where the Sacramento Kings and Utah Jazz lie. This team will compete immediately—so much so that 30 wins feels like a pessimistic projection.
Worse Than Expected: Phoenix Suns
3 of 8
2013-14 Record: 48-34
Conference Finish: Ninth
Fairy-tale finishes won't find their way to the Phoenix Suns' lap if Eric Bledsoe somehow leaves before the regular season tips off. That's a given. Except this is about more than him.
Even if Bledsoe returns—likely—the Suns aren't in the same position they were last season. Sure, head coach Jeff Hornacek has one year of experience to his name; and yes, last season's team remains largely intact and has the opportunity to grow. But the Western Conference is also tougher.
Improvements haven't been made across the board, but the West is still incredibly top-heavy. Heck, it's middle-heavy too.
Great teams are still great, and in some cases—like that of the Los Angeles Clippers—even better. Fringe contenders abound too, some of which are deeper (Golden State Warriors) or healthier (Denver Nuggets).
Matching last year's win total has become much more difficult for a Suns team that, despite its meteoric rise to prominence, remains unproved.
Will Isaiah Thomas fit in? Can Gerald Green and Goran Dragic replicate last year's production? Is this still a top-eight offense? Will potentially looming free-agency decisions for Bledsoe and Dragic have adverse impacts on Phoenix's top-flight chemistry?
Next year's ceiling is strikingly similar to last season's in that the Suns can score their way to postseason contention. To say that ceiling is markedly higher, though, would be a mistake.
Better Than Expected: New York Knicks
4 of 8
2013-14 Record: 37-45
Conference Finish: Second
Unlike Carmelo Anthony's totally transparent free-agency decision, this actually has everything to with Phil Jackson.
Roughly six months into his tenure as president (and savior) of the New York Knicks, Jackson has earned more faith than he's receiving. One month into free agency, Bleacher Report's Adam Fromal had the Knicks snagging 35 victories. Returns didn't get much better following late-summer upheaval within the Eastern Conference; ESPN.com put the Knicks at 37 victories.
The spirit of such projections is fair. If there's one thing the Knicks haven't done since last season's nightmare performance, it's earn the public's trust. But this is not a 35- or 37-win team. Not in the Eastern Conference.
Anthony's return is a boon for New York's stock by itself. Acquiring Jose Calderon and drafting Cleanthony Early are similar boosts. That the Knicks even traded their way into the draft—as opposed to out of it—is a harbinger of much-needed, long-awaited change.
Locker room culture doesn't figure to be the same. Derek Fisher and Jackson are going to implement a system—a real, live, functioning system. Will the Knicks be a defensive disaster? Most definitely, but the offense—which ranked 11th in efficiency for last season—will be better.
New York has enough firepower to go point for point with any other team, an observation based off the depth of its rotation, not J.R. Smith's self-proclaimed candidacy for Chucker of the Century.
Put simply, next season isn't going to be last season. Largely thanks to Jackson, the Knicks are going to be different.
Unrecognizable even. In a good way.
Worse Than Expected: Dallas Mavericks
5 of 8
2013-14 Record: 49-33
Conference Finish: Eighth
Did the Dallas Mavericks improve over the offseason? Absolutely. Could their third-ranked offense wind up being even more deadly than last year? Yup.
Are they legitimate championship contenders? Nope.
For all the Mavericks gained—Chandler Parsons, Jameer Nelson and Tyson Chandler—they have not morphed into an indomitable powerhouse. They lost Jose Calderon and Shawn Marion. They lost Vince Carter. And, more importantly, their success is tightly tethered to a 36-year-old Dirk Nowitzki dabbling in timeless offensive mastery.
"The safe bet by now is just to assume that Dirk is never going to age," Bleacher Report's Fred Katz wrote in August. "At 35 years old, Nowitzki came closer to a 50-40-90 season last year than anyone else in the league...Dirk is still as efficient as ever, and Dallas has even more offensive weapons coming in next season."
Impressive though Nowitzki's efforts were in 2013-14, banking on time's demise is never a safe bet. Time is undefeated (outside San Antonio). Ask Steve Nash. Ask Kevin Garnett.
Ask Kobe Bryant.
Defensive stability will be a problem for this team. There's no guarantee Parsons lives up to his contract, and there's even less of a guarantee Monta Ellis turns in another efficient assault. Nowitzki's on-court agelessness turning demonstrative incubus might be the ancillary concern, but that's hardly comforting.
Make no mistake, the Mavericks—on paper—are better. Promises of anything more than another lower-seeded playoff berth are simply underdeveloped.
Better Than Expected: Atlanta Hawks
6 of 8
2013-14 Record: 38-44
Conference Finish: Eighth
Next season's Atlanta Hawks have the ability to make noise in the Eastern Conference—more noise than most tend to acknowledge. And though the organization's present on-court path is lost on some, Fromal deftly described it in a way that demands its plan flies over the head of no one:
"Are they the Eastern Conference's version of the Spurs heading into this next campaign? Absolutely not.
But they could be down the road, and that has to be considered a nice breath of fresh air for Atlanta's beleaguered fanbase.
"
With Gregg Popovich disciple Mike Budenholzer in place, the Hawks have already showed signs of installing a system and culture that renders them immediately dangerous.
Last season's record was pedestrian at best, but they joined the San Antonio Spurs, Oklahoma City Thunder, Toronto Raptors, Warriors, Clippers, Heat and Timberwolves as the only teams to rank in the top half of both offensive and defensive efficiency. Most of that's elite company. In the Eastern Conference, it's unheard of company.
Atlanta also ranked first in assist percentage. Noteworthy because, well, ball movement is a clear sign of system implementation. In this case, it's a see-through indicator of the Hawks bringing Spurs basketball East.
That by itself should be more than enough to catch our eye. That Paul Millsap is heading into a contract year, Jeff Teague continues to embody steady progression and Al Horford stands to be healthy puts Atlanta on the brink of escaping mediocrity sooner rather than later.
As in right now.
Worse Than Expected: Denver Nuggets
7 of 8
2013-14 Record: 36-46
Conference Finish: 11th
Some may find themselves believing last season's lottery letdown was an anomaly—the byproduct of injury bugs and bad luck. Those individuals would be correct. To an extent.
The Nuggets cannot enter 2014-15 regarded as a fallen giant preparing to stand on its own two feet again. That 57-win faction from 2012-13 is gone and might not ever return as presently assembled.
Danilo Gallinari, JaVale McGee, Nate Robinson and J.J. Hickson are all working their way back from serious injuries. If and when they return rust could become an issue.
Denver finds its imminent fate firmly fixed to the continued rise of Kenneth Faried and the frequently injured Ty Lawson, as well as the recently returned Arron Afflalo. The roster itself, while deep, may not stack up against the powerhouse-packed Western Conference.
Health aside, the Nuggets aren't built to defend and will need to revisit their offensive roots from one year ago when they ranked fifth in efficiency and second in pace. Assuming they're able to duplicate said blueprint, the matter of their collective health isn't going anywhere.
Greener pastures, more victories and ultimately a playoff berth could await the Nuggets in 2014-15. Equally likely, though, is the possibility they fall victim to a contender-charged Western Conference and an incongruous roster in need of change destined for another lottery exploration.
Better Than Expected: New Orleans Pelicans
8 of 8
2013-14 Record: 34-48
Conference Finish: 12th
Two words and one eyebrow carry limitless potential: Anthony Davis.
Consider what Davis' college head coach, John Calipari, told USA Today's Sam Amick of the New Orleans Pelicans superstar's involvement with Team USA at the FIBA World Cup:
"Right now, you look at (Davis) and say, 'Man, in five years, he could be the best player in the NBA.' And this USA Basketball stuff pushes that date sooner. Again, here's what it does for him: how to work, new things to add to his game, and confidence like, 'These are the best in the world, so I'm all right.'
"
Davis has already tallied 2,200 points, 1,100 blocks, 150 steals and 300 blocks more quickly than anyone else in NBA history, and it's not even close.
He ranked fourth in player efficiency rating last season (26.5) behind only Kevin Durant, LeBron James and Love. More impressively, he ranked 14th in win shares while playing for the 34-win Pelicans despite being one of only two players in the top 15 (Chris Paul) to appear in fewer than 70 games.
Our point? Davis is a top-three NBA player...right now.
Name whomever else you'd like; it won't change. Anything less than a top-five classification is an insult. This kid—who is only months removed from being able to legally order a beer—is a superstar, his skill set unprecedented, his ceiling without bounds.
And that goes down as New Orleans' incredible gain. The Pelicans have put some talent around Davis. Omer Asik will be tremendously helpful, as will Ryan Anderson and Jrue Holiday if they remain healthy.
Standing at the forefront of everything and everyone is Davis, his star rising, its ultrasonic speed potent enough to carry the Pelicans—imperfections and all—to immediate, unexpected heights that dwarf those from 2013-14.
*Stats courtesy of NBA.com and Basketball-Reference unless otherwise noted.
