Predicting the Boston Red Sox's Opening Day Roster for 2015

The Boston Red Sox are in an enviable position entering the offseason. With the core offense already in place and multiple trading chips, the team could go many different directions in putting together a 2015 Opening Day roster. Below is one such iteration of what a possible roster could look like. To arrive at the roster, the following concepts were used:

• Free agency is better than trades to bring in top talent. Why give up trade chips if you can sign players to reasonable salaries?
• Most of the financial resources will go to rebuilding a pitching staff decimated by the departures of Jon Lester, John Lackey, Jake Peavy and Andrew Miller.
• Further, no long-term free-agency acquisitions that go beyond five years, in keeping with the Red Sox's stated guidelines for contracts. It doesn't mean that the team will always adhere by these guidelines, but we can only work with what we know. This means no Lester, no Max Scherzer.
• No blockbuster trades. It doesn't make sense to shop Xander Bogaerts coming off a disappointing rookie season, while Mookie Betts has played his way into a valuable role with the team. Trying to predict blockbuster deals is difficult given how difficult it is for deals to come together, and the team has the depth to not require a blockbuster.
  
  

2015 Opening Day Lineup

RF Mookie Betts – Betts has impressed in his third stint with the team and is already being eyed by skipper John Farrell to be the leadoff hitter, as John Tomase of the Boston Herald writes.

2B Dustin Pedroia – Pedroia has anchored the lineup in the No. 2 spot for years, and that won't change. One key element of his 2015 season will be whether he can rediscover the power that has vanished the last two seasons.

DH David Ortiz – Entering his final guaranteed season with the club, Big Papi has shown no indication of slowing down and will be counted upon for his usual power out of the No. 3 hole.

Winslow Townson/Associated Press

LF Yoenis Cespedes – Ever since coming over from Oakland at the trade deadline, Cespedes has been a RBI machine (27 RBI in 34 games) and has been everything Boston hoped he would be.

1B Mike Napoli – A possible trade candidate with the presence of Allen Craig, Napoli's power and plate discipline is a blend the Red Sox need to lengthen their lineup. Further, he brings a presence in the clubhouse and is a gifted defender.

CF Rusney Castillo – The Cuban import should be ready for his first full season, but there will be a lot of expectations heaped onto the center fielder. Getting off to a strong start will be key.

3B Trevor Plouffe – A projected deal lands Plouffe in Boston from Minnesota. The club can't give the job to Will Middlebrooks, who needs to get his career back on track in Triple-A, but shouldn't block him either due to his power potential. Plouffe will start getting expensive for Minnesota as a second-year arbitration player who won't be a free agent until after 2017, which could make him expendable in a deal. Hitting .251/.322/.422 on the season with 40 doubles, Plouffe would be a valuable addition to the lineup.

SS Xander Bogaerts – Bogaerts will be counted on to have the sophomore season many expected his freshman year. Hitting .304/.395/.464, like he did in 2014 through June 3, will be a good start.

C Christian Vazquez – The no-hit Vazquez will bring his value in calling quality games for his pitchers and keeping players honest on the basepaths.

2015 Opening Day Bench

C David Ross – Ideally, the club would get a bat-first backup for Vazquez. That could be possible on the trade market, but the free-agent class is lacking. Further, the team values Ross' leadership skills and mentorship of Vazquez, as Brian MacPherson of The Providence Journal writes.

IF Brock Holt – While Holt's batting line has collapsed by posting a .219/278/.271 line in the second half, his versatility makes him a virtual lock for the Opening Day squad.

1F/OF Allen Craig – Craig is likely far better than the numbers he put up in 2014, as he struggles with a Lisfranc injury in his foot, but the club can't hand him a starting spot out of the gate. Craig offers valuable protection against injury, or one of Betts or Castillo not performing up to expectations.

OF Franklin Gutierrez – As the current Opening Day roster is constructed, the team could use a backup center fielder to avoid moving Betts out of right field, which he will need to familiarize himself with. Gutierrez was out of baseball for 2014 but is a gifted defender with intriguing power and is worth a sign in free agency.

2015 Opening Day Rotation

Julio Cortez/Associated Press

SP James Shields – Shields makes a lot of sense for Boston to chase as a free agent. Entering 2015 at 33 years old, the right-hander won't require a long-term deal, which is right up Boston's alley. Further, he's proven in the AL East, spending seven years as a major cog in Tampa Bay's rotation. He's shown no signs of letting up in his two seasons with Kansas City and is worthy of opening up the season as the Opening Day starter.

SP Brandon McCarthy – The Red Sox won't stop at acquiring Shields as the team could use another significant piece in the rotation. McCarthy is another logical piece for the club to pursue. Given his age (will turn 32 in the middle of 2015), his injury history (he has a chance to make 30 starts for the first time in a nine-year career in 2014) and a subpar performance in Arizona from 2013-14 (4.75 ERA in 40 starts), McCarthy may only command a two-year pact.

However, his peripherals indicate he is a strong pitcher, demonstrated in part by his 3.78 mark in Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP, as FanGraphs explains) with Arizona. Since being dealt to the Yankees, he's been a new man, posting a 2.80 ERA through 10 starts as New York allowed him to throw his cutter again after Arizona barred its use, as John Harper of the New York Daily News pens.

SP Clay Buchholz – While Buchholz has struggled through a difficult season just one season after posting a 1.74 ERA through 16 starts, the 30-year-old's 4.11 FIP against 5.40 ERA indicates Buchholz has been unlucky to a significant degree. In fact, his FIP would rank as his second best since 2010 behind 2013 and third best in his career once you discount his 2007 rookie season when he hurled 22.2 innings.

SP Rubby De La Rosa – The former Dodgers phenom has earned a spot in the 2015 rotation with a 3.89 ERA through 15 starts. While his walk rate of 3.2 per nine innings and strikeout rate of 6.3 K/9 needs work, further development could put him as a front-of-the-rotation talent.

SP Joe Kelly – Coming over in the John Lackey trade, Kelly has shown the ability to generate ground balls and induce outs. With a strong defensive infield behind him, his production should play up and make him a viable fifth starter.

2015 Opening Day Bullpen

CL Koji Uehara – Despite running out of gas at the end of the season, Uehara's credentials since taking over the closer's job in Boston are impeccable, and he should be back for another round.

Alex Brandon/Associated Press

RP Tyler Clippard – A projected acquisition from the Nationals for Shane Victorino, the right-hander will function as the setup man the Red Sox need to acquire somehow this offseason. 

RP Junichi Tazawa – The 28-year-old has emerged as a quality reliever who can pitch in the late innings.

RP Neal Cotts - The team needs to find a left-handed reliever to replace Andrew Miller and free up Tommy Layne to be a left-handed specialist. With the club unlikely to pick up Craig Breslow's option, Cotts is a logical free agent who can also pitch against right-handed batters.

RP Brandon Workman – With strong depth in the rotation, look for the Red Sox to transition Brandon Workman to the bullpen. As the 2013 season proved, the right-hander's stuff plays up in the bullpen and his tenure in the 2014 rotation should only serve to continue developing his secondary pitches as he strives to emerge as a setup man.

RP Edward Mujica – Entering the final season of his two-year pact, Mujica turned things around in a hurry following a disastrous April in 2014 and should continue providing value in the middle of the bullpen.

RP Tommy Layne - The former Padre has turned heads in his late-season stint with the Red Sox and should enter 2015 on the inside track for a job as a left-handed specialist.

Again, this is only one possible way the 2015 Opening Day roster for the Red Sox could shake out. The club is in an enviable position with deep pockets and depth at many positions that enable them to go in many different directions in the offseason.

If the club does, however, open the season with the above roster, it would put the team in strong contention to win the division in 2015 without significantly compromising its depth, leading to an ability to make midseason acquisitions and contend for seasons to come.