Where Should Miami Heat Set Expectations for 2014-15 Season?
No sooner had LeBron James finished penning his way back to the Cleveland Cavaliers than the Miami Heat heard their championship window come crashing down.
Considering the circumstances, the Heat did everything they could to ensure this offseason would be remembered as one of resilience, not surrender. Miami opted for a reload instead of a rebuild—despite having no realistic chance of a complete recovery—and, in doing so, steered the franchise clear of an all-out disaster.
The James-less Heat, deeper than before but no longer in possession of the top-heavy talent that powered them to four consecutive NBA Finals, project to be a good-not-great team in 2014-15. Bleacher Report's Adam Fromal pegged them 43 wins, one fewer than ESPN's NBA forecast panel.
Clearly, the Heat's standard of success has been forcibly changed. So, what exactly is Miami aiming for next season?
Heat team president Pat Riley, speaking on a conference call with reporters in July, said his goals haven't changed.
"We're going to compete with everybody else to win a world championship," said Riley. "We're not going into this thing next year with this roster thinking that there's anything less than that. That's just the way I am as a man, and the way I coach and the way I manage."
Riley is free to set the bar as high as he would like, and confidence will be key in Miami's involuntary transition from the NBA's hunted to one of its many hunters. Still, his goals seem well outside the obtainable realm for a team trudging forward without the best player on the planet.
Before diving into the Heat's recovery plan, it's imperative to take stock of what exactly they lost this summer. James' two-year reign as league MVP may have ended last season, but there was never a doubt about which player was Miami's most valuable.
| PPG | 27.1 | First | 26.5 |
| APG | 6.3 | First | 28.0 |
| RPG | 6.9 | First | 18.7 |
| USG% | 31.0 | First | N/A |
| PER | 29.3 | First | N/A |
Where will the Heat turn to replace that production? Surely not to one specific player.
Chris Bosh, who inked a five-year, $118 million contract with Miami this offseason, seems headed back to a primary scorer's role. It's a position he held before joining the Heat in 2010—he averaged 22.8 points on 50-percent shooting his final five seasons with the Toronto Raptors—and one he's eager to reprise.
"I want to see if I can do what's necessary to go in there and win every night," he told The Associated Press' Tim Reynolds. "That's the challenge of being a leader. It excites me. It's been a long time and I feel like I'm a much better player and a leader now, so it'll be fun."
A 16.2 points-per-game scorer last season, Bosh proved he's still capable of statistical outbursts when given the opportunity. In the 18 games he attempted at least 15 shots in 2013-14, he averaged 22.9 points.
However, there's a major difference between occasionally shouldering the heaviest scoring duties and carrying them on a nightly basis. Given that he celebrated his 30th birthday in March, he might find that a featured role is substantially more difficult than he remembers.
Bosh, of course, isn't alone in guiding the Heat through the post-LeBron era. Dwyane Wade, Miami's second-leading scorer last season, seems like he'll either shed the Robin designation he's held the last four years or add some assertiveness to it with Bosh as Miami's new Batman.
While Miami's carefully managed maintenance program limited Wade to just 54 games in 2013-14, his knee problems didn't keep him from posting some eye-opening numbers: 19 points on 54.5-percent shooting, 4.7 assists and 4.5 rebounds.
But at this point, his injury woes—he missed 58 games over the last three seasons—have become a permanent part of his story. And while his statistics appear to have some upward mobility with James' departure, Wade hasn't harbored any fantasies of turning back the clock and suddenly becoming the same player from his past.
"I ain't trying to go back five years," Wade said, via Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald. "If we all could, we would, but that's not likely ... I'm used to something from the last four years. Until we get into training camp and the preseason games, you really don't know how it's going to be yet."
Those unanswered questions only mount as attention shifts to Miami's numerous newcomers.
Josh McRoberts brings over a versatile skill set (8.5 points, 36.1 percent three-point shooting, 4.3 assists), but he's only a little more than a year removed from being dumped by the Orlando Magic for Hakim Warrick, who was out of the NBA last season.
Luol Deng hasn't shot better than 43.1 percent from the field in any of the past three seasons. He struggled mightily to adjust after a midseason trade to the Cleveland Cavaliers (14.3 points on 41.7 percent shooting, 14.0 player efficiency rating in 40 games with Cleveland), and his agent has already tried to distance him from James' shadow.
"They’ve seen Lu at his best moments and his worst moments, and I think they understand that while Lu isn’t going to fill in for LeBron, Lu can step in and replace some of the things that LeBron did," his agent Ron Shade told CSN Chicago's Aggrey Sam (via NBC Sports). "They’re not looking for Lu to be LeBron."
Danny Granger hasn't had a healthy (or productive) season since 2011-12. Shannon Brown has shot below 43 percent from the field during seven of his eight years in the league. Rookies James Ennis and Shabazz Napier and James Ennis have never logged a second of NBA action, and Justin Hamilton has just eight games of mop-up duty under his belt.
It's impossible to ask any player to replace James, but where is the guy guaranteed to keep Miami among the league's elites? He doesn't exist.
The Heat still have enough to snag a postseason spot, but mediocrity could become the new norm in South Beach.
"Miami will be an average basketball team with a costly max contract on the books," wrote Michael Pina of Sports on Earth. That doesn't sound like a promising plan, because it isn't one. The Heat were obliterated by an asteroid and currently sit like a crater in the ground."
The Heat haven't plummeted to the point of charting their success on regular-season performances—although a win over James' Cavaliers would certainly feel sweet—but their bar stops well short of championship contention.
The Eastern Conference, still little brother to the fully-loaded West, has gotten deeper. Cleveland and the Chicago Bulls seem to be on a conference finals collision course, but improving teams like the Toronto Raptors, Washington Wizards and Charlotte Hornets could spoil those plans.
It's in that second tier where Miami now finds itself, positioned for a playoff berth but relying on hope for anything beyond that. One postseason series win feels like a best-case scenario. Two would be a dream come true.
Miami's championship window will remain closed until it can strike it rich in free agency again (2016 perhaps?). For now, the new grading scale is simply "second round or bust."
Unless otherwise noted, statistics used courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com.
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