Realistic Ceiling for the Chicago Bulls This Season

With Derrick Rose injured, Luol Deng traded and the Chicago Bulls clearly having no intentions of tanking, it’s time for Bulls fans to pick their eyes up off the floor, look toward the ceiling and consider the realistic expectations of what the Bulls can accomplish this year.

Whatever the hopes are, they are going to be a far sight from the legitimate championship hopes from the start of the year. But, that doesn’t mean that there’s nothing to root for or enjoy from the remainder of this season. What’s the most the Bulls can do?

Bear in mind that the discussion here is not a “prediction” as much as a ceiling. It’s not saying this is what the Bulls will do as much as what they realistically can do. And they can still give the fans something to get excited about during the playoffs.

The Bulls' Remaining Schedule

The Bulls have shown they will continue to fight and play defense, and that means they’re going to have a chance in most games, especially when you look at their remaining schedule.

G	Date	Column1	Opponent	W	L	Winning %
50	Sun, Feb 9, 2014	@	Los Angeles Lakers	18	32	0.360
51	Tue, Feb 11, 2014		Atlanta Hawks	25	23	0.521
52	Thu, Feb 13, 2014		Brooklyn Nets	22	26	0.458
53	Wed, Feb 19, 2014	@	Toronto Raptors	26	24	0.520
54	Fri, Feb 21, 2014		Denver Nuggets	24	24	0.500
55	Sun, Feb 23, 2014	@	Miami Heat	35	13	0.729
56	Tue, Feb 25, 2014	@	Atlanta Hawks	25	23	0.521
57	Wed, Feb 26, 2014		Golden State Warriors	30	20	0.600
58	Fri, Feb 28, 2014	@	Dallas Mavericks	30	21	0.588
59	Sun, Mar 2, 2014		New York Knicks	20	30	0.400
60	Mon, Mar 3, 2014	@	Brooklyn Nets	22	26	0.458
61	Wed, Mar 5, 2014	@	Detroit Pistons	20	29	0.408
62	Fri, Mar 7, 2014		Memphis Grizzlies	26	22	0.542
63	Sun, Mar 9, 2014		Miami Heat	35	13	0.729
64	Tue, Mar 11, 2014		San Antonio Spurs	36	14	0.720
65	Thu, Mar 13, 2014		Houston Rockets	33	17	0.660
66	Sat, Mar 15, 2014		Sacramento Kings	17	33	0.340
67	Mon, Mar 17, 2014		Oklahoma City Thunder	40	12	0.769
68	Wed, Mar 19, 2014	@	Philadelphia 76ers	15	36	0.294
69	Fri, Mar 21, 2014	@	Indiana Pacers	39	10	0.796
70	Sat, Mar 22, 2014		Philadelphia 76ers	15	36	0.294
71	Mon, Mar 24, 2014		Indiana Pacers	39	10	0.796
72	Fri, Mar 28, 2014		Portland Trail Blazers	35	15	0.700
73	Sun, Mar 30, 2014	@	Boston Celtics	18	33	0.353
74	Mon, Mar 31, 2014		Boston Celtics	18	33	0.353
75	Wed, Apr 2, 2014	@	Atlanta Hawks	25	23	0.521
76	Fri, Apr 4, 2014		Milwaukee Bucks	9	40	0.184
77	Sat, Apr 5, 2014	@	Washington Wizards	24	25	0.490
78	Wed, Apr 9, 2014	@	Minnesota Timberwolves	24	26	0.480
79	Fri, Apr 11, 2014		Detroit Pistons	20	29	0.408
80	Sun, Apr 13, 2014	@	New York Knicks	20	30	0.400
81	Mon, Apr 14, 2014		Orlando Magic	15	37	0.288
82	Wed, Apr 16, 2014	@	Charlotte Bobcats	22	28	0.440

The aggregate winning percentage of their remaining opponents is .503. Seventeen of their 33 opponents have losing records. Of the teams with winning records, only nine have a winning percentage over .600.

On the other end, 10 have a record below .400.

Furthermore they’ve had the hardest stretches of their schedule behind them. They’ve had two prolonged and problematic West Coast road trips. First their annual, “Circus Trip” was a disaster. They lost all four of their games and Rose (ironically in the stadium formerly known as the Rose Garden.)

Now, with only the game against the Los Angeles Lakers remaining, they have won just two of five on the road trip which started January 29. In those two trips, the Bulls are an aggregate 2-7.

Nam Y. Huh/Associated Press

The good news is that they only have one more road game against a Western Conference team: the Dallas Mavericks on February 28.

In fact, overall, the road vs. home splits of their remaining games bode well for the Bulls. They have just 15 road games remaining compared to 18 home games. Their road opponents are also easier than their home ones.

The record of their foes on the road is just .489, with only five more of their road games coming against winning teams.

Their remaining home games are much more difficult, but they will be aided by the United Center crowd. Ten of their guests have winning records. The average winning percentage of their opponents in remaining home games is .514, and five of the teams have won at least 70 percent of their games this year.

They also offset those difficult matchups with five home contests against teams that have won less than 30 percent of their games.

So, putting all that together, their schedule isn’t the easiest in the league, but it’s not the hardest. The worst parts are behind them, and the toughest parts ahead of them are at home.

Win Probability

I did a little simple math, assuming the better the opponent is relative to the Bulls’ winning percentage—the worse the Bulls' chances of beating them are.

Since the home team wins about 60 percent of regular-season home games historically, I added in a 10 percent chance for the Bulls to win home games and subtracted 10 percent for road games.

The actual formula is Bulls’ winning percentage *2 - opponent’s winning percentage + location adjustment.

Using that logic, here are the chances of Chicago winning each of their remaining games.

Original Chcart

Obviously that’s an imperfect formula, but it does give us a rough idea of what the Bulls’ chances are for their unplayed games. Adding these percentages together has the Bulls finishing 16-17 over their last 33, a final record of 40-42.

But that’s the middle of the wall. Based on standard deviations, the Bulls could win six more or six less than that. That would put their ceiling at 46-36.

John Hollinger’s projections have them finishing 40-42 with somewhere between 28 and 53 wins.

All these models don’t take into account the injury disaster the Bulls passed through in November, so they slightly undersell the Bulls. A reasonable prediction is that the Bulls finish 41-41.

So the high end of those projections is anywhere from 46 to 53, but those are absolute ceilings, not realistic ones.

Without dreaming, if the Bulls can stay healthy, they could reach 45 wins this year. That would not be a shock to the world. Currently the Toronto Raptors own the third-best record in the Eastern Conference and are on pace to win 45.5 games. The Bulls are 1.5 games behind them.

Certainly, the Raptors are catchable, particularly if they move Kyle Lowry before the trade deadline.

A realistic ceiling for the Bulls during the regular ceiling is 45 wins and a No. 3 seed. The high seeding says more about the conference than the Bulls.

Playoffs

Issac Baldizon/Getty Images

There is little chance the Bulls miss the playoffs entirely, and in all likelihood they’ll finish anywhere between third and sixth in the East. Chicago, Toronto, the Atlanta Hawks and Washington Wizards are clumped together, occupying the four slots with just 1.5 games separating them.

There is a decent chance that the Bulls get the home-court advantage in the first round. They would win it if they have the No. 3, No. 4, or possibly even No. 5 seed. If the Raptors win the Atlantic, but have a worse record than the Bulls, Chicago would still play host.

Additionally, the Bulls' core is the only one to have won a playoff series together. The Atlanta Hawks won a series in 2011, but the team they have now is completely different. Jeff Teague, the only healthy starter who was on that team, was just a role player back then.

While the Bulls could lose to any of those teams in a seven-game series, they’d have a great chance of beating any of them too. Their defense, experience and fortitude could help them to outlast their more talented opponents, even if they can’t outplay them.

However, if they made it to the second round, there is probably one of two solid brick walls to contend with: the Indiana Pacers or the Miami Heat. The most Chicago could realistically hope for at that point is a similar result to last season—stealing a game in the series and just generally being a pain.

Last year, in the absence of Derrick Rose, the Bulls won 45 games and made it to the second round, swiping a game from the Heat. This year, it looks like the more things change, the more they stay the same. A 45-win regular season and a five-game second-round series seems to be their ceiling.