Grading Cincinnati Reds on the 2013 MLB Winter Meetings

Cincinnati Reds general manager Walt Jocketty has been busy this offseason, but he didn't make a move at the 2013 MLB winter meetings. Although no move was made, the Reds were certainly active in talks in Orlando, Fla., this past week.

Before the team got to Florida, it had already signed catcher Brayan Pena and dealt Ryan Hanigan. Left-handed reliever Manny Parra got a new deal with the club, and yes, Corky Miller is back with the organization.

It was a busy offseason early, but this past week was filled with rumors rather than actual deals for the Reds. Not only did they not sign a player or trade for one, the Reds didn't even draft anyone in the major league Rule 5 draft.

Grading Cincinnati for what it did at the meetings is tough because it didn't add any players. However, Jocketty and the Reds get a passing grade for the moves that they didn't make.

To keep track of what the Reds are doing this offseason, follow Bleacher Report's offseason tracker.

*All stats are via MLB.com

Current Payroll Breakdown

Figures via BaseballProspectus.com and MLBTradeRumors.com

This team has made the postseason in three of the past four seasons. There is room for improvement on offense, but this team has a limited budget. It can't afford to be breaking the bank for one player.

The bar graph above breaks down each player's 2014 salary. However, the following players are eligible for arbitration, which means it's an estimation: Homer Bailey, Mike Leake, Aroldis Chapman, Chris Heisey, Alfredo Simon and Sam LeCure. Chapman's salary in the graph is based on what he was scheduled to make in 2014 before arbitration.

Also, the following players' salaries are based on their 2013 salary, as their figures aren't available for next season: Zack Cozart, Todd Frazier, Devin Mesoraco, J.J. Hoover, Tony Cingrani and Billy Hamilton.

Based on those figures, the projected payroll for 2014 is around $107 million. That is about where the team was in 2013, so there isn't much room to bump that payroll up with a big splash.

*Contract information via BaseballProspectus.com. Arbitration projections via MLBTradeRumors.com.

The Shin-Soo Choo Sweepstakes

General manager Walt Jocketty said during the winter meetings that the Reds are ready to move on from Shin-Soo Choo, via MLB.com's Mark Sheldon.

Many Reds fans aren't happy about that. After all, Choo finished second in the league in on-base percentage and walks, and he led the league in getting hit by a pitch. His knack for getting on base will be tough to replace, but the Reds have no choice but to move on.

The New York Post's Joel Sherman reported that the price for Choo is going to be around a seven-year, $142 million deal, which comes out to an average of more than $20 million per year until he is 38 years old.

That salary would be nearly twice as much as what Jay Bruce will make next season and about $8 million more than what Joey Votto will make in 2014. Choo is a good player, but not to that extent.

Choo hit .215 with zero home runs and eight RBI against southpaws in the regular season. With his inability to hit left-handed pitching and defensive struggles, it's tough for a small-market team like the Reds to justify $20 million per season. It's even tougher to give that money to a guy whose production will start to decline soon.

The Texas Rangers are viewed as the front-runners to land Choo as of now. However, ESPN's Buster Olney reported that even the Rangers think the free agent is asking for too much money. The New York Yankees handed out big contracts to two outfielders and a catcher already this offseason but not to Choo. The Seattle Mariners and the Arizona Diamondbacks appear to be out of the running after their big acquisitions.

Scott Boras, Choo's agent, may have overplayed his hand and scared away some of the competition. His client may still get a huge contract, but the draft pick tied to him hurts his value. It's unclear if the Rangers are the only team in on Choo right, but it looks like the Reds are out.

Cincinnati entered the offseason wondering if it could afford to give Choo a five-year, $90 million contract. With his latest demands, the Reds did the right thing to not get into a bidding war.

By not spending the money, they can use their savings to try to lock up some of their own players. 

Brandon Phillips Involved in Trade Talks, Remains a Cincinnati Red

Reds fans are probably getting dizzy from all of the back-and-forth rumors regarding Brandon Phillips.

One moment Fox Sports' Ken Rosenthal reports that the Reds are unlikely to trade the second baseman, and a week later Phillips' name is involved in trade rumors. 

On Dec. 11, CBS Sports' Jon Heyman reported that the New York Yankees rejected a Phillips-for-Brett Gardner trade. Heyman followed that report with another tweet saying that the Phillips wanted to add money to his contract if he were to be traded, which the Yankees rejected.

Gardner is in the final year of his contract. He could wind up being another rental player, so it wouldn't be wise to make a trade without getting him to commit.

Phillips would be tough to deal. He is still owed $50 million over the next four seasons, and Rosenthal tweeted that the second baseman can block a trade to 12 teams, including the Yankees. It was a wise move for Phillips to put the Yankees on his list of teams, considering that Robinson Cano was a free agent. He could demand more money from them or reject a trade.

There is no way this team would be better off by trading Phillips. He is a four-time Gold Glove winner and a three-time All-Star. He just knocked in a career-high 103 runs in 2013 thanks to a .338 average with runners in scoring position.

Yes, his average and on-base percentage dropped this past season. However, most people fail to mention that he was playing injured. He was leading the offense before getting hit by a pitch on June 1. He missed the next four games, and his numbers dropped the rest of the season:

	G	HR	2B	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG
Before June 1	54	9	13	45	.296	.347	.481
After June 1	97	9	11	58	.241	.288	.349

As he showed on his Instagram account, he got the injury taken care of after the season. 

If the Reds are going to lose Choo, they can't afford to deal Phillips. That's too much offense to lose and still expect to contend for the National League Central crown. The club would be wise to hold onto the star second baseman and watch him rebound next season, especially if he hits high in the lineup.

The Yankees are the only logical fit for Phillips, but they appear to be looking in another direction. Cincinnati would be wise to hold onto one of its core pieces.

Cincinnati Gets Back in on Bronson Arroyo

In a somewhat surprising turn of events, the Reds reportedly got back in on Bronson Arroyo, according to C. Trent Rosecrans of The Cincinnati Enquirer.

Cincinnati met with Arroyo's agent on Tuesday, although that doesn't mean much. However, Arroyo's agent did expect the team to make an offer to his client, according to Fox Sports' Ken Rosenthal. Arroyo is expected to get a deal worth around $36 million over three years, according to the New York Post's Joel Sherman.

Despite the meeting earlier this week, ESPN's Jayson Stark reported that the Reds are telling clubs that they expect Arroyo to sign elsewhere.

The Minnesota Twins are the only other team known to currently be in on him.  

Considering the market for starting pitching, $12 million per season for a very good pitcher is a steal. Arroyo has never missed a start in his career, and he threw at least 200 innings in seven of his eight years with the Reds. He threw 199 innings in the other season.

Having someone who can eat innings like that is important. It helps give the bullpen a rest, which is important for a team with young pitchers. 

When the Reds traded his personal catcher, Ryan Hanigan, this winter, that looked like it signaled the end of Arroyo's time in Cincinnati.

The 36-year-old went 105-94 in eight seasons with the Reds. 

Arroyo is worth the money. However, the Reds have Tony Cingrani ready to join the rotation. He was very good as a rookie, but can the Reds count on him and Johnny Cueto to stay healthy? If not, Arroyo makes sense.

Even if the Reds don't want to sign Arroyo right now, it's good to stay in contact with him. If his price drops, Cincinnati would be more tempted to grab him later. 

Homer Bailey: Reds Talk Extension, Not Trade

Entering this offseason, Cincinnati fans didn't know what was going to happen with Homer Bailey. He has only one year remaining on his contract and is due for a nice raise in arbitration, and it's not clear if the Reds will be able to lock him up.

At the winter meetings, the Reds met with Bailey's agent to talk about an extension despite a lot of trade interest. GM Walt Jocketty told MLB.com's Mark Sheldon what the club plans to do with Bailey.

"I told them [teams] we’re not trying to trade him," Jocketty said. "We’re trying to sign him."

That's a risky strategy to take. Bailey's value is arguably as high as it will ever be, so it would make sense for the club to see what it could get for him. If the Reds choose to keep him like Jocketty said, they risk losing him for nothing next offseason.

What will Bailey demand next winter? Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press tweeted that the early estimates on Bailey project him to be around $100 million over five years.

That's a steep price, but great pitching is tough to come by. Scott Kazmir, who hasn't had an earned run average below 4.00 since 2008, signed a two-year, $22 million contract this offseason. Bailey, who is in his prime, will get much more.

Bailey has turned into an ace, and he has two no-hitters to back that up.

Pitching wins championships. Cincinnati knows Bailey gives it a chance to win a championship. The former first-round pick has learned to save his energy for the later innings and throw 97 mph when he absolutely needs to.

There has been absolutely zero information about how those talks with his agent went. The New York Yankees are among the teams that are interested in the 27-year-old, so the Reds do have options if they change their mind.

For now, it should be seen as a positive sign that the Reds at least brought up an extension. Whether or not Bailey wants to stick around for the future remains to be seen.

Sean Marshall Involved in Trade Talks?

Reliever Sean Marshall's name came up in trade talks at the winter meetings. The Colorado Rockies were interested in the Reds southpaw, via The Denver Post's Troy Renck.

Colorado is looking for a left-handed reliever, and Renck tweeted that the Rockies were "really close" to acquiring Marshall. However, Marshall's shoulder injury this season may have kept a deal from getting done.

On the surface, trading Marshall would make sense. Manny Parra, who had a breakout season in his first year with the Reds, was re-signed. Marshall is still owed $12 million over the next two seasons. Jonathan Broxton is owed $16 million over the next two seasons, and Aroldis Chapman is eligible for arbitration this winter. 

J.J. Hoover and Sam LeCure both showed that they can pitch meaningful innings for cheap. Dealing Marshall's contract would free up some cash to sign other players, such as Homer Bailey.

It makes sense financially to at least explore dealing the southpaw. Would it make sense for the team on the field?

Before this past season, Parra's ERA had not been below 4.39 since 2007. Baseball is a funny game. After a solid 2013 season, Parra could return to his old form. If he does, the Reds need Marshall in the bullpen.

The only benefit Cincinnati would get from trading Marshall is salary relief, if a team is willing to pay the entire remainder of his contract. The southpaw is a terrific pitcher and a big part of the bullpen. With Marshall, Broxton and Chapman, the last three innings of a game are in good hands.

2013 MLB Winter Meetings Overall Grade

Kirk Irwin/Getty Images

Overall Grade: C-

Cincinnati was active in talks, but it didn't pull off any moves. It's tough to give the team a strong grade without making any upgrades. It would be easy to fail the Reds for staying put, but they did do some positive things.

They didn't get caught up in a bidding war for Shin-Soo Choo. As the payroll showed, this team doesn't have room to sign Choo to the contract that he is looking for. It may hurt the offense to lose Choo, but at that price, the team did the right thing.

Cincinnati's grade is helped by it coming out and saying that the team wants to keep Homer Bailey. An arm like that is tough to find, and the Reds decided that they are going to do what they can to sign him to an extension.

Exploring what they could get for Sean Marshall was wise. The Reds have plenty of talented arms in the bullpen, and shedding Marshall's salary would help the club have some payroll flexibility. They didn't trade the southpaw, but it's something to keep an eye on.

Lack of activity hurt the club's grade, but it at least made smart baseball decisions. The Reds didn't deal Brandon Phillips just to deal him. They aren't going to eat a lot of money in a deal involving him, so they have to get a good deal in return.

It's a positive for the team that it kept him, but mentioning him in talks could continue to hurt the relationship between the player and the organization.

In the end, Jocketty couldn't make a bold move because of very little room in the budget.