Biggest Winners and Losers from the First Month of the NBA Season
Four weeks into the 2013-14 NBA season, it's time to stop chalking up early successes and failures to small-sample-size theater.
Take the Indiana Pacers, for example. Anyone who still doesn't buy into the Pacers, even after they've won 14 of their first 15 games, needs to wake up and smell the roses. They're legit.
The New York Knicks and Brooklyn Nets, on the other hand, couldn't look further away from championship contention. There's still plenty of time for either team to bounce back, but the further they dig themselves into a hole, the less likely a massive turnaround becomes.
Like the contrast between the Pacers and the New York squads, certain budding superstars are trending in majorly opposite directions, too. New Orleans' Anthony Davis looks to be years ahead of his developmental schedule, while Cleveland's Kyrie Irving has hit the skids since his 2013 All-Star berth.
Here, take a look at eight of the biggest winners and losers from the first month of the 2013-14 NBA season based on how they've fared compared to their preseason expectations.
Note: All statistics and records are current through games played on Nov. 28.
Winner: The Indiana Pacers' Championship Chances
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The Indiana Pacers weren't getting much preseason love as a 2014 championship favorite. Despite pushing the Miami Heat to the brink of defeat in the 2013 Eastern Conference Finals, many analysts expected the Pacers to finish third in the East this year.
One month into the season, Indiana has rendered those predictions obsolete.
Thanks to a Thanksgiving eve loss by the San Antonio Spurs, the Pacers are the NBA's only remaining one-loss team. Their solitary loss came at the hands of the Chicago Bulls on the second night of a back-to-back (pre-Derrick Rose injury).
They're getting it done on both ends of the court, thanks to Roy Hibbert and Paul George. Hibbert has turned into a "human eclipse" around the basket, to borrow a term from CBS Sports' Matt Moore, looking like a runaway favorite for Defensive Player of the Year.
George, meanwhile, has fully embraced his status as one of the league's budding superstars, averaging 23.7 points, 6.3 rebounds and 3.3 assists per game while shooting 46.9 percent from the floor. He's quickly become the third-best wing player in the league, behind only LeBron James and Kevin Durant.
Miami may still be the prohibitive championship favorites, but they're in for a dogfight against the Pacers if the two cross paths in the playoffs once more.
Loser: The Chicago Bulls' Title Window
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The Chicago Bulls entered the season as one of the favorites to knock off the Miami Heat from their championship perch.
One month and one torn meniscus for Derrick Rose later, it's looking like the end for this iteration of the team.
As suggested by ESPN Chicago's Nick Friedell, Rose's injury means that no player on the Bulls roster should be considered untouchable. The Bulls aren't playing for the 2014 championship anymore, so with Luol Deng on the final year of his contract and Carlos Boozer a likely amnesty victim next summer, the Bulls front office may start firing up their phone lines.
Bulls general manager Gar Forman told ESPN Chicago's Melissa Isaacson that, at the moment, he isn't planning on making dramatic changes to the roster. He seemingly left the door open for moves to come later in the season, particularly if the team falls apart without Rose.
If Russell Westbrook is any indication, D-Rose should be able to bounce back fully healthy by the start of the 2014-15 season. The odds of him starting alongside the foursome of Jimmy Butler, Carlos Boozer, Luol Deng and Joakim Noah again are slim to none, however.
Winner: Miami's Restorative Powers
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Since the dawn of the Miami Heat's Big Three era, the franchise has continually turned lemons into lemonade.
Before Chris "Birdman" Andersen signed with Miami in January, for instance, he had nearly fallen out of the league entirely. Five months later, he evolved into an integral part of an NBA championship-winning team.
This year, Miami has continued its restorative magic with Michael Beasley. The Phoenix Suns let Beasley walk in early September following an arrest for suspicion of marijuana possession, one year after signing him to a three-year, $18 million deal.
The Heat, sensing another lemons-into-lemonade opportunity, took a gamble by signing him to a one-year, non-guaranteed contract. He's rewarded their faith by averaging 11.0 points (on a career-high 55.7 percent shooting) and 3.5 rebounds in only 16.5 minutes per game.
In perhaps a sign of the impending zombie apocalypse, Beasley currently touts the third-highest PER on the team (22.7), behind only LeBron James and James Jones, per Basketball-Reference. Just for the sake of reference, his previous career-high PER came back during his rookie season (2008-09) and was more than five points lower (17.2).
Loser: The Cleveland Cavaliers' Chances of Wooing LeBron
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If the Cleveland Cavaliers had serious intentions of luring LeBron James back next summer, that plan may now be on life support.
Kyrie Irving appears to be regressing badly in the third year of his NBA career. After shooting over 45 percent from the floor and 39 percent from three-point range in his first two seasons, he's only knocked down 40.4 percent of his total shot attempts (32.9 percent from downtown) this year.
Irving's struggles have carried over to the rest of the team, who have notched only four wins in their first 15 games of the season. Given the weakened state of the Eastern Conference, such mediocrity can't be justified for a team with legitimate preseason aspirations.
But as noted by ESPN.com's Kevin Pelton (subscription required), the Cavs really may have blown their shot at LeBron far before the start of the season. Their questionable decision-making during the past few NBA drafts could come back to haunt them.
Instead of drafting Tristan Thompson (No. 4 in 2011), Dion Waiters (No. 4 in 2012) and Anthony Bennett (No. 1 in 2013), the Cavs could have selected Jonas Valanciunas, Andre Drummond and Victor Oladipo. All three of their selections could still pan out, but they'll need to turn the season around quickly to have any shot at wooing James in 2014.
Winner: The Eastern Conference's Middle Class
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Outside of the Indiana Pacers and Miami Heat, the Eastern Conference has been chock-full of depressingly terrible teams this first month.
If the playoffs started today, the 6-8 Toronto Raptors would be the East's No. 4 seed. Four teams with losing records—the Raptors, Washington Wizards, Charlotte Bobcats and Detroit Pistons—currently stand among the eight "best" teams in the conference.
That's great news for preseason playoff hopefuls whose season hasn't gotten off on the right foot, such as the Cleveland Cavaliers, New York Knicks and Brooklyn Nets. Getting to 40 wins may be enough for a playoff berth in this tremendously weak conference.
Just for some perspective: Only five Western Conference teams are currently sitting at .500 or below. The East has 13 such teams, with only the Pacers and Heat above .500.
The Utah Jazz may be all aboard the Tanking Express, but they'll have stiff competition from the mediocrity that's floating around the East this season.
Loser: New York Basketball
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The New York Knicks and Brooklyn Nets both had their sights set on a deep playoff run heading into the year.
The Nets made a huge offseason splash by trading for Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce, but the Knicks weren't planning on ceding their dominance over New York basketball without a fight.
Instead, both teams appear to be completely off the rails after the first month of the season. Who could have possibly predicted that they'd be a combined 7-22 on Thanksgiving?
Since center Tyson Chandler suffered a fractured right fibula on Nov. 5, the Knicks tumbled into a tailspin, losing eight of their next 10 games. Chandler should be back within the next few weeks, which gives the team some modicum of hope, but he won't cure all that ails them.
The Nets have no such respite in sight, barring the NBA legalizing Jason Kidd's "spill a drink to earn an extra timeout" strategy. They've already been besieged with their own health problems, with Deron Williams and Brook Lopez each battling ankle sprains.
At least one of these two squads will likely bounce back to win 45 games this season, but championship contention appears to be a pipedream for both.
Winner: Anthony Davis' Superstar Credentials
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Anthony Davis is quickly proving in 2013-14 that he's not a one-trick pony.
He came into the league with the reputation of an elite shot-blocker, then confirmed those thoughts by averaging 1.8 blocks in only 28.8 minutes per game as a rookie.
This year, the former Kentucky big man has upped the ante significantly. He's averaging 3.9 rejections in 34.9 minutes per game, trailing only Indiana's Roy Hibbert in the category.
Even when he's unable to block an opponent's shot, he's still one of the league's top rim protectors. Out of all the players who defend at least 5.7 field-goal attempts at the rim per game, Davis ranks seventh in the league in opponents' field-goal percentage (42.5 percent), according to the SportVU database at NBA.com.
B/R's Adam Fromal recently delved into what makes Davis such a star defensively, and it's not just his shot-blocking prowess. His newfound defensive versatility and improved understanding of team defense has made him that much more of a weapon for New Orleans.
Given the strides he's made both defensively and offensively this season, Davis appears to be one of the league's brightest budding superstars. Don't be surprised to see him on an All-NBA team at the end of the year.
Loser: Omer Asik
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Since the moment the Houston Rockets signed Dwight Howard in free agency, Omer Asik began planning his departure from the team.
He formally requested a trade back in early July, but the team refused. As training camp kicked off, Asik wouldn't comment on the trade request, according to the Houston Chronicle's Jonathan Feigen, saying, "I have no comment on any of these things. I'm just going to do my job."
Things only soured from there. After losing his starting job earlier this month in a game against the Philadelphia 76ers, Asik again issued a trade request, per Feigen. He sat out each of the next two games, but has worked his way back into the Rockets rotation since.
According to Yahoo! Sports' Adrian Wojnarowski, Houston general manager Daryl Morey has "engaged in trade talks with multiple teams" and is "demanding an impact player in return" for Asik. The Rockets hold all of the leverage for now, however, as Asik has two years and $20 million remaining on his contract.
In 2012-13, Asik appeared to be a perfectly serviceable starting center, albeit one who was extremely limited on offense. Until he forces his way out of Houston, however, he'll be little more than a fringe bench player, barring an injury to D12.
