Does Rex Ryan Deserve a Contract Extension with New York Jets?

Some readers may find the discussion of Rex Ryan's future with the New York Jets premature. Wait until this season ends, they say. What's more, history may be on their side.

The Jets may be in the playoff hunt right now. But that was also the case in 2011 and 2012. In fact, in 2011, they only needed one victory in their final three games to clinch a spot. Must I remind you of what happened?

• 2011: The 8-5 Jets lost to the Eagles, Giants and Falcons to finish 8-8.
• 2012: The 6-7 Jets lost to the Titans, Chargers and Bills to finish 6-10.

The Jets missed the playoffs both years.

In other words, there's a lot of football to be played. And just because the numbers say this is the easier part of the Jets' schedule doesn't mean the they can throw their helmets on the field and win. Week 11's 37-14 defeat at the hands of the Buffalo Bills proves that.

Remember, every win has come hard this year, regardless of opponent. Their greatest margin of victory: seven points. Their margins of defeat: three points, 25 points, 13 points, 40 points and 23 points. They can't afford to be smug.

In his post "Green Day: Be patient on Rex-tension," ESPNNewYork.com's Rich Cimini puts the matter this way:

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We live in an age of immediacy, but the Jets' brain trust -- Wood-zik -- won't be swayed by the emotion of the moment. They'll let it play out, making a decision once the season has been defined.

"

You might be surprised, however, at who places himself in the impatient camp: It's the New York Daily News reporter that many Jets fans love to hate, Manish Mehta.

Mehta proposed an extension during the 2013 preseason, in a post called "NY Jets should give Rex Ryan extension on contract":

"A one-year extension would give Ryan a chance to set the franchise back on the path to the postseason over the next two seasons (before entering the final year of his amended deal). It would also give GM John Idzik an opportunity to give him desperately needed dynamic offensive weapons."

Mehta's proposal would let Ryan coach in the 2013 and 2014 seasons before becoming a lame duck. That would provide two drafts, including that of 2013, in which to stockpile enough talent to contend in 2014.

The Jets' 5-5 start in 2013 already has them in the playoff hunt. They'd really control their own destiny had they gone 6-4 by beating Buffalo. The fact that they're still in the conversation despite an up-and-down season is a tribute to Ryan.

Nevertheless, the Week 11 loss showed that the Jets, Ryan and Jets fans can't assume anything. Even tough the Jets aren't facing quarterbacks like Matt Ryan, Drew Brees and Tom Brady, their remaining opponents present significant challenges of their own. That's why Ryan, despite his achievements to date, should not be evaluated until this season's body of work is complete.

Still, I want to be fair. So I'm going to take a look at some frequently cited reasons for extending Ryan's contract and see if any warrant an immediate extension. I like Ryan and hope he prevails, but too many pitfalls lie ahead to justify an immediate decision on his future.

Cumulative statistics include 2013 regular-season games through Sunday, November 17.

Sources

• New York Jets history: NewYorkJets.com
• Player and team statistics: NFL.com

5. Fan Support

From a football standpoint, fan attitudes may be the most irrelevant reason for extending Rex Ryan's contract. However, fan support—or lack thereof—impacts a team's ability to sell tickets and generate revenue. So while what the fans think about extending Ryan's contract may be irrelevant from a football perspective, it may be very relevant when it comes to running the business that is the New York Jets.

There is evidence that Jets fans strongly support extending Ryan's contract. In an ESPNNewYork.com online poll, of 3,472 responses, 71 percent supported a contract extension.

Statisticians will find this endorsement far from conclusive. Its biggest flaw is the composition of the voting sample. It completely ignores fans who avoid online news or who choose not to participate in such polls. More to the point, as a one-time event, this poll ignores the up-and-down nature of the Jets' season. I'd like to see how the results vary with every passing week.

For example, say the Jets lose their next six games to finish 5-11. What would the level of fan support for extending Ryan's contract be then?

The Jets have been entertaining, competitive and downright surprising so far. Yet, the one-sided losses to Cincinnati and Buffalo revealed the team's dark side. Should the Jets not emerge from that funk like they have all year, Ryan will sit firmly on the fans' hot seat come season's end.

4. Dominant Defense

Anthony Gruppuso-USA TODAY Sport

Damon Harrison (94) and Sheldon Richardson (91) form two-thirds of the Jets'

One major criticism of Rex Ryan as a head coach is that he is incomplete. He's a glorified defensive coordinator, critics say. He has no concept of how to run the offensive side of the show. Maybe that's true. But if the Jets make the playoffs on the strength of their defense, Ryan's contribution will bolster the case for extending his contract.

When Ryan announced his intention to take a more hands-on role with the defense this year, he played into his critics' hands. That was especially true during the first preseason game, when Ryan confessed to missing Mark Sanchez's opening pick-six because he was busy with the defense.

However, Ryan's decision has yielded positive results. Despite losing three-quarters of their starting secondary to free agency and trades, the Jets once again have a top-10 defense. In fact, they've addressed two issues from 2012—run defense and quarterback pressure—in sterling fashion.

The Jets have the top run defense in the NFL after finishing 26th in 2012. They've also sacked opposing quarterbacks 28 times in 10 games compared with 30 sacks in all of 2012.

The net result is that despite losing three members of 2012's starting secondary, two starting linebackers and two starting linemen, the Jets defense's overall ranking (eighth) matches that of last season.

It sounds like a triumph of Ryan's genius. But there are still issues to resolve.

The team's pass defense has slipped from second-best in the NFL in 2012 to 23rd this year. That's where the changes in the secondary have left their mark.

When "Sons of Anarchy" Muhammad Wilkerson, Damon Harrison and Sheldon Richardson pressure the opponents' quarterback, the Jets have a far better chance of winning than when they don't. It sounds like an obvious point, but it points to the issues with pass coverage that this Jets secondary has.

ProFootballFocus.com (requires paid subscription) gave the 2012 Jets defense a grade of 3.4 in pass coverage. This year's grade of minus-37.3 illustrates the steep decline.

The other defensive issue this year is the inability to generate turnovers. The Jets have a turnover ratio of minus-14. They've recovered two of opponents' 15 fumbles and intercepted five passes.

It wouldn't be so bad if Geno Smith weren't such a turnover machine. However, that's how he's played through Week 11, throwing 16 interceptions and losing four fumbles. A team whose offense commits more than 20 turnovers (the Jets have 21) needs a defense that can reverse the tide. Three-and-outs are great, but turnovers often provide a greater psychological lift.

The key to beating the Jets this year is pass protection. Opponents' ability in keeping the "Sons" away from their quarterbacks will be the key to how well the Jets do from here on out. The final assessment of this year's Jets defense rests on the talent on the defensive line prevailing over opponents that are primed to stop it.

If the "Sons" prevail and the Jets make the playoffs (or if they at least finish 8-8), it will bolster Ryan's reputation as a defensive genius. But with the secret out about the Jets' defensive strengths and weaknesses, it's too soon to anoint this defense as another Ryan triumph. Let's see what the next six games bring and pass our judgment then.

3. Rapport with Players

Rich Barnes-USA TODAY Sports

Jets guard Willie Colon wants Rex Ryan back next year.

The term "player's coach" is often a synonym for "soft." Such a coach fails to impose his will on his team, fails to impose discipline and fails to get results. However, the term also has a positive connotation.

A "player's coach" can also mean a coach who is firm but fair. He communicates his passion for the game to his players in no uncertain terms. What's more, he has their back. He's neither afraid to criticize a player who's erred, nor is he afraid to take the blame for his own mistakes.

That's the kind of player's coach Rex Ryan seems to be.

Ryan gets credit for his communication skills from players and coaches alike. That translates to support for his return.

Early in November, for example, right guard Willie Colon told Newsday reporter Kimberley A. Marin that Ryan was "worthy of staying." Colon continued:

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I'm for it.  I see it like this: If you feel like the team is going in a positive direction -- which we are, even though we have a lot of football left -- and you see him in your plan, why hold out?

But if [not], keep it where it's at. But I think the team is on the up and up, the culture's changing, guys are starting to jell with each other more, guys are starting to believe in each other, and we're starting to be friendly with each other.

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Coaches have observed this rapport as well. Quarterbacks coach David Lee testified to Rich Cimini of ESPN, "Golly, he can talk to a football team. I mean, he can motivate. The guy can talk to players, and they love him. I saw that immediately."

This is all good news for Ryan. But it's an aspect of his coaching style that's best assessed after the  season is complete. If the Jets make the playoffs or at least continue to play competitively, Ryan's communication style will be viewed as a positive factor. But should they collapse, it will take more than player loyalty to save him.

2. Staff Management

Rich Barnes-USA TODAY Sports

Offensive coordinator Marty Mornhinweg may be the Jets' best offseason hire.

Players come, and players go. But year in and year out, a head coach's core of assistants is essential to getting his message through to his team. One of Rex Ryan's biggest triumphs in 2013 has been his success in forging a new coaching team, especially after the tumult of the 2012 season.

One of the Jets' first challenges in the 2012 offseason was to replace key assistant coaches:

• Special teams coordinator Mike Westhoff retired.
• Assistant head coach Bob Sutton became the Kansas City Chiefs defensive coordinator.
• Defensive coordinator Mike Pettine became the Buffalo Bills defensive coordinator.
• Offensive coordinator Tony Sparano was fired.

These were only the most high level of changes. It was actually a more far-reaching overhaul than that. In fact, by the 2013 draft, nearly 75 percent of the Jets' coaching staff was either a new face or an old face occupying a new position.

That upheaval in the coaching ranks seemed symbolic of the Jets' organizational chaos. In his post "Three keys are fueling the Rex Ryan revival," ESPNNewYork.com's Rich Cimini put it this way:

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That much upheaval on a coaching staff can ruin a holdover head coach, who suddenly is surrounded by strangers. One of the reasons why Bill Parcells made so many coaching jumps in his career was because, for the most part, he was able to keep his trusted staff together. He didn't want to spend his time coaching the coaches.

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However, in this case the changes may be for the better. Here are some examples:

• Quarterback Matt Simms had a reputation for a strong arm but questionable accuracy. Under new quarterbacks coach David Lee, Simms won the No. 2 quarterback job by completing nearly 75 percent of his preseason pass attempts, producing victories over the Giants and Eagles.
• New offensive coordinator Marty Mornhinweg has demonstrated a considerable amount of resourcefulness in adapting to the Jets' available personnel as injuries deprived him of his principal passing game weapons. He's modified his traditional pass-oriented approach in favor of Ryan's ground-and-pound philosophy in victories over the Patriots and Saints.

Mornhinweg's greater emphasis on the run, by the way, flies in the face of critics who charge that Ryan is only interested in defense. More than likely, Ryan leaves the nitty-gritty of running the offense and play-calling to Mornhinweg. However, using run-oriented nature of offensive game plans against New England and New Orleans suggests that Ryan acts like a good CEO, setting the strategic direction for the offense and delegating its implementation to Mornhinweg.

The returning staff boast some impressive accomplishments as well. Other than Geno Smith, for example, the only Jets player to commit a turnover has been wide receiver Stephen Hill. That's a tribute to the efforts of special teams coordinator Ben Kotwica, running backs coach Anthony Lynn and wide receivers coach Sanjay Lal.

What would happen to this group of assistants should Ryan leave?

More than likely, they'd leave too. A new coach would want to name his own staff. That would make the current staff expendable regardless of their contracts. In other words, if the Jets feel the current coaching staff is functioning well, the best way to keep it together is to retain the man in charge.

It's too early to see the complete results of their efforts. But it's probably not too early to judge the coaching staff's effectiveness as a team. Keeping that team together is a powerful incentive for the Jets to retain its leader.

1. Relations with Management

When it comes to relations with the front office, Rex Ryan has turned a potential lemon into lemonade. It may be the best reason to extend his contract.

Woody Johnson's decisions to keep Ryan and fire former general manager Mike Tannenbaum were met with widespread criticism. It flew in the face of conventional NFL wisdom, which maintains that a new general manager wants to clean house, wants to replace the members of the old regime with staff of his or her choosing. That includes football personnel in general and the head coach in particular.

For that reason, Ryan's retention supposedly kept the best general manager candidates from accepting the Jets job.

When the Jets hired John Idzik, the criticism merely changed direction. Idzik had no personnel experience, the critics said. He had never managed a draft. His buttoned-down style was completely opposite to that of the more bellicose Ryan. He'd never be able to mold the team until he could name his own head coach.

That was in January. Now the Jets are 5-5, still in the playoff chase and one of the reasons, according to ESPNNewYork.com's Rich Cimini, is the working relationship between Idzik and Ryan.

Idzik had this to say about working with Ryan in Cimini's post, "Three keys are fueling the Rex Ryan revival":

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The more we work together, we learn how we have a lot of similarities, not only in our upbringing, but really our view on football, view on the type of players and people that we want in the building that reflect what it is to play like a Jet and act like a Jet.

"

In Cimini's estimation, Idzik has been good for Ryan:

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Idzik is the grown-up in the room that Ryan needed. He's getting the best out of Ryan -- his defensive acumen and his leadership skills, filtering out all the nonsense that sometimes overshadowed the good.

Unlike the previous two seasons, undermined by locker-room turmoil and a quarterback controversy, the Jets have remained relatively distraction-free. The question is whether Ryan can maintain the harmony. Things imploded the last two Decembers, as the Jets finished each year on a three-game losing streak.

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However, it's that final sentence about "the last two Decembers" that best explains why Ryan, despite his accomplishments, isn't getting a contract extension yet. There are still potential areas of controversy that Ryan must navigate before he gets a formal endorsement from Idzik and Jets owner Woody Johnson:

• He must handle the raised expectations the Jets' play has caused. Ryan has put the Jets in playoff contention every year he has coached, only to miss the past two years because of late-season collapses. The Jets must perform better down the stretch.
• He must handle the quarterback situation. Geno Smith's turnover-laden performance against the Buffalo Bills has made many question his potential as an NFL quarterback. Many want Matt Simms to get a chance to start. Ryan has to upgrade the level of quarterback play without stirring up a locker-room controversy.
• He must shore up the secondary. It's too late in the year to replace cornerbacks Antonio Cromartie and Dee Milliner. It's hopefully not too late to change the Jets' coverage schemes to lend them more support. Maybe newly acquired safety Ed Reed can contribute a fresh approach. However it happens, Ryan needs options beyond quarterback pressure for his pass defense to improve.

Ryan has succeeded in building an us-against-them team chemistry that has made the Jets playoff contenders. His ultimate test this year is not if the Jets make the playoffs. Rather, it's if the chemistry he's built can survive the ups and downs of a full NFL season. If it does, he'll be back. But only completing the season will answer that question for the Jets organization and fans.

Follow Philip Schawillie on Twitter: @digitaltechguid.