Complete 2013-14 Scouting Report and Predictions for Russell Westbrook

Russell Westbrook isn't back for his sixth season quite yet, so if you're looking for some exciting, athletic point guard play, you'll just have to tune into Derrick Rose and the Chicago Bulls for the time being. Still, there's some good to be found in Westbrook's most recent knee surgery (no, seriously).

Following the procedure, Oklahoma City Thunder GM Sam Presti said (per DailyThunder's Royce Young):

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I think the thing that’s important to focus on is the surgery itself and the meniscus itself is healing properly.

Although we lost a little bit of time, we gained a tremendous amount of confidence in the recovery and the knee itself.

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That's fantastic news for Thunder fans. It's early, but from the sounds of it, Westbrook hasn't lost any of the athleticism that makes him so dangerous. Which shifts the question from whether he'll be the same player when he returns to whether he'll continue his trend of improving each year. The answer will determine the outcome of the Thunder's season.

Can Westbrook Continue To Improve?

The Thunder posted a 60-win season following the James Harden trade thanks to a little bit of Kevin Martin and a whole lot of improvement from Kevin Durant, Serge Ibaka and Westbrook. As we all know, Martin is gone now, and once again, Oklahoma City will be banking on the emergence of a new threat (Reggie Jackson) and incremental improvement from its established stars to make up for that.

Westbrook's probably one of the top five or six players in the game, and yet he still has plenty of room to grow.

The biggest hole in Westbrook's game is undoubtedly defense. He's not terrible—in fact, he grades out to be about a neutral or slightly above-average defender. But he has the physical gifts to be far more than that, and even just a small step up would give the already-stellar Thunder defense a big boost.

Westbrook's two biggest problems on the defensive end are gambling and ball-watching, both of which are very fixable. In some ways, they actually go hand-in-hand. Westbrook is always ready to jump passing lanes or gamble on pickpocketing his man. That sometimes leads to exciting plays, but if he fails, he puts the Thunder defense in some really bad positions.

That boom-or-bust mentality also leads to poor off-ball defense. Too often, Westbrook is caught watching the ball or trying to provide unnecessary help as his man cuts to the hoop or beyond the three-point line for an easy bucket. Stuff like that belies Westbrook's generally solid positional defense and, again, is easily fixed.

There are a few hiccups in Westbrook's offensive game as well, including a tendency to take iffy three-pointers, so-so vision in the paint and a burgeoning—but not yet truly reliable—post game. Those we'll cover in greater detail later on, but for now just understand that as good as Westbrook is, he's still got plenty of ways in which to improve.

What's On The Line For Westbrook And The Thunder?

A title. Nothing else really matters in OKC.

Westbrook's locked in until the 2016-17 season, and improvement or not, he's a max player. You could make a case that if Westbrook improves enough, he could overtake Chris Paul as the league's best point guard, but stuff like that is all arbitrary anyways.

There's been a lot of negativity surrounding the Thunder (from a media standpoint) following their inactivity over the summer, and some analysts have gone so far as to say they're not true contenders. Chris Webber recently told The Boston Globe's Gary Washburn:

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I never viewed them as the favorite last year, even with him (Westbrook). I think this is a different league and each team is going to have to reevaluate, not live off the past. This is a much different league than it was last year, so I think they need to worry about the other great teams in the Western Conference.

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Don't let stuff like that confuse you. The Thunder are one of the three or four best teams in the league, Martin or not. And with young and promising players like Jackson, Steven Adams and Jeremy Lamb on the roster, they're set up to be in the NBA's upper echelons for the next few years as well.

Still, there are some questions to be answered after this season, including the future of Thabo Sefolosha, one of the league's premier “three-and-D” wings. The Harden trade and Westbrook injury both served as concrete proof of how quickly things can change in this league. OKC seems set for the future, but who knows? All that's certain is that they can compete for a championship this season. It's a title-or-bust year.

Scouting Report For 2013-14 Season

Like most top players, sometimes there's just nothing you can do about Westbrook. If he's on and hitting shots, then you just have to do your best and hope that the rest of the team isn't doing so hot.

Westbrook's favorite shot (much to the chagrin of many critics) is a pull-up jumper from the elbow area, a shot he often launches coming out of a high screen. He hit about 43 percent of those shots following a horrendous early shooting slump, per NBA.com—not an elite percentage but certainly good enough that the shot should be considered a legitimate threat.

What makes Westbrook so dangerous is that he couples that mid-range jumper with an unsurpassed ability to get to the rim.

Last season, Westbrook took nearly 600 shots from within five feet, the most of any guard and third in the league behind Dwight Howard and Greg Monroe, via NBA.com. If a defender plays off him too far, Westbrook is more than happy to take uncontested jumpers. If they get in his face, he can just take them off the dribble. He's a defensive problem to say the least.

As you might have guessed, there's no real right way to guard Westbrook. Generally, the best thing to do is to play off him and let him take a few jumpers. If he's not hitting them, great. If he is, then you have to play up on him and risk his getting to the rim.

Westbrook's ability to get to the basket is always hard on opponents, but smart defenses can minimize the damage he does by funneling him towards their best defensive/rim-protecting big as often as possible. Last season, Westbrook shot 57 percent at the rim, per NBA.com—surprisingly average for someone so athletic.

One of the few weaknesses in Westbrook's offensive game is that he tends to get tunnel vision once he's in the paint.

Occasionally, Westbrook will make a nice dump-off pass to a big or will kick it out to a three-point shooter, but once he's that close to the basket, he's looking to shoot, and sometimes he gets a little out of control. Opponents can capitalize on that by having someone cheat off of Kendrick Perkins and help any time Westbrook penetrates.

Obviously, that's no definitive guide, and even when defenses do put Westbrook in a tough situation at the basket, he's capable of making shots anyways. Still, it's the best you can do against a player as talented as he is, and a few teams (the Miami Heat and Memphis Grizzlies in particular) were quite successful against him last season.

As you can see, Westbrook's PER has held pretty steady over the past few years, but he's improved more than the stats would have you believe.

The biggest change has come off the ball. Westbrook has a reputation for being a pretty shaky shooter from outside, and considering that he hit 32 percent of his three-pointers last season, that reputation is fair. Believe it or not though, Westbrook was actually a decent spot-up shooter.

Last season, Westbrook hit 39 percent of his spot-up threes compared to just 34 percent the year before, per Synergy Sports Technology (subscription required). To be fair, the sample size is relatively small, and he hurt his overall percentage by taking a lot of iffy off-the-bounce threes. But he wasn't a terrible shooter last season, and if that holds steady, it could end up being a huge plus for the Thunder as they try to incorporate him into some lineups with Jackson.

Westbrook's even become semi-dangerous in the post. Few guards are as physically imposing as he is, and he's able to take advantage of that on the low block. It's not a true go-to weapon for the Thunder right now—Westbrook's footwork isn't the greatest, and he takes a few too many fadeaway jumpers—but smaller guards don't have a chance when he chooses to post them up.

As mentioned earlier, Westbrook has his weaknesses. His shot selection can be frustrating at times, he's an underwhelming defender and sometimes he complains to officials instead of hurrying back on defense. However, he's also a devastating, versatile offensive player who's still getting better. Which outweighs his minor flaws by a good bit.

Conclusion

Westbrook will certainly give the Thunder an immediate boost when he hits the court, though without the gift of foresight, it's hard to say just how good he (and they) will be this season.

In the very best-case scenario, Westbrook would once again take a step forward, make small improvements to his game and mesh well with Lamb and particularly Jackson in the backcourt. And if that's the case, the Thunder would almost certainly have a better team than the squad that won 60 games and led the league in margin of victory last season. Which sounds like a potential title to me.

In the worst-case scenario, it takes Westbrook a while to shake the rust off, and he comes back as a slightly diminished version of himself last year. He and Jackson never quite get it together in the backcourt, and the Thunder end up with a disappointing seed and a relatively early playoff exit.

Prediction-wise, I'd say his per game numbers look something like this:

PTS	AST	TRB	FG%	3P%	PER
22.8	7.5	4.9	46	35	24.7

The base numbers go slightly down from last year, but only because Jackson and Durant will be handling the ball so much. Westbrook should get a nice uptick in efficiency assuming he avoids last year's early shooting slump, and here's to thinking he'll show some defensive improvement as well.

The Thunder would be thrilled if Westbrook played at the level he did last season. But he's young, ridiculously athletic and by all accounts a tireless worker. There's no reason to think he won't be even better.