Predicting the Biggest X-Factors of 2013-14 NBA Season
We can make all the preseason NBA predictions we want, but there's no way to know how certain X-factors will play out.
There is some evidence available to clue us in to these variables. Otherwise, identifying them ahead of time would be total guesswork. Each factor has affected its respective team's fate before, and each has the power to swing the upcoming season, for better or worse.
Some of these X-factors are individual players, but there are also pivotal influences bigger than just one player. On-court strategy and other team-related issues can affect an entire conference; just like potential breakout performers on contenders, they can sway an NBA title under the right circumstances.
The Clippers' Post Defense
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Of last season's Western Conference heavyweights, the Los Angeles Clippers improved the most this summer, but not in the area they desperately needed.
Doc Rivers is a huge upgrade over Vinny Del Negro on the sidelines, but his impact will be limited if the Clippers can't defend inside. Considering all of L.A.'s substantial offseason moves have been for perimeter players, it looks like that will be the case yet again.
Though physically gifted, Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan have lacked the awareness, communication and fundamentals to protect the paint. They were borderline unplayable together late in games, forcing Del Negro to sub in the likes of Ronny Turiaf and Ryan Hollins when the score was close.
Hollins is currently the only Clippers big who plays above-average post defense. Los Angeles is clearly doubling down on Griffin and Jordan to gel in that regard; the potent Clipper offense might dominate, but it won't matter without at least a passable defense to support it.
Derrick Rose's Left Knee
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Left-knee soreness, though minor on the surface, has the power to incite a full-blown panic attack amongst the Chicago Bulls faithful.
K.C. Johnson of the Chicago Tribune reported that Derrick Rose sat out the Bulls' exhibition in Rio de Janeiro as a precaution to protect his surgically repaired knee, which has kept him out for nearly 18 months.
Tom Thibodeau was able to keep up his staunch defense without Rose last season, but the offense was staid and slow without the dynamic star running the point. Chicago posted the best record in the East during each of Rose's healthy seasons under Thibodeau, and his supporting cast now is better than he has ever had.
But if Rose is limited or misses more time, the story changes. While the Bulls won't back down from any opponent, they won't be able to simply bully their way into the contending ranks. Rose's spark of explosiveness and finesse on the offensive end is essential to Chicago's two-way success; he has to be at full strength to provide it.
Detroit’s Big Situation
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No one believes the Detroit Pistons will vie for a championship this season, but they can be giant killers in the playoffs if they can harness their size.
With Josh Smith joining Andre Drummond and Greg Monroe in Detroit's starting lineup, the Pistons have arguably more front-line talent than any team in the league. However, none of those bigs is a reliable enough jump-shooter (though Smith is certainly willing) to create spacing on offense.
Complicating matters further is that the new Pistons point guard is Brandon Jennings, another spotty shooter. This raises major questions about how Detroit will respond when opponents pack the paint and welcome those outside opportunities.
But if that particular blend of talent can mesh, it will be very difficult to compete against that height and athleticism. Against a juggernaut lacking rim-protectors, the Pistons can impose their physical style and pull off the upset.
Dwight Howard’s Fit
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The Houston Rockets landed the best free agent available and inserted themselves into the title conversation, but their championship bona fides depend on Dwight Howard accepting the offense.
In theory, Houston is running a system similar to what Howard ran with the Orlando Magic. Howard will be the lone post player in the starting lineup, giving him free rein inside while four shooters fan out beyond the arc to create that space.
That said, those Magic teams moved at Howard's deliberate pace, while the Rockets are otherwise built to run. James Harden and Jeremy Lin are adept at pushing the ball in transition and attacking off the pick-and-roll. The latter will get Howard easy buckets, but the former will rob him of some beloved post-ups.
Howard rebelled against Mike D'Antoni when he instituted a similar offensive philosophy with the Los Angeles Lakers. Kevin McHale is more likely to appease Howard with half-court touches, but the star center will have to buy into Houston's frenetic attack for the team to really compete.
Kobe Bryant's Achilles
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This isn't a matter of the Los Angeles Lakers making noise in the postseason; that's unlikely to happen regardless of Kobe Bryant's health. Rather, the state of his injured Achilles tendon will significantly affect how fun this upcoming season is, because without Kobe, these Lakers are a sorry, boring bunch.
Remember the last time Pau Gasol was the centerpiece of a roster? Mike Miller was the second-leading scorer on those Memphis Grizzlies. Hakim Warrick somehow averaged double-digit points. Chucky Atkins and Damon Stoudamire shared point guard duties. A 39-year-old Steve Nash is still more exciting at the point, but Chris Kaman and Nick Young aren't going to make this situation much brighter.
When Kobe went down with his season-ending injury last April, we were all reminded of how little time we have left to watch this all-time great. Bryant is 35 and is entering his 18th NBA season. Every additional minute is a blessing at this point.
Besides, we're going to be inundated with Lakers coverage regardless. Would you rather watch Kobe nail 18-footers or Gasol and Nash struggle without him? L.A. likely won't have a big impact on the league this season, but Bryant's recovery will still be a huge story because of what he has meant to the league.
Miami’s Health
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Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh proved last postseason that the Miami Heat are beatable when they're banged up.
That Miami nearly lost in 2013 with two of its Big Three hobbled is not surprising. LeBron James is a superhero, so the Heat were able to get past the Indiana Pacers, but the two-time defending champs lacked the depth to adequately spell Wade and Bosh when they were limited.
The 2013-14 Heat roster is ostensibly the same as it was the last two years, but their competition has gotten fiercer. Among other teams, Indiana and Chicago will push Miami in the East, while the West is as stacked as ever. Beating these great squads will require the Heat to play at full strength.
After Wade and Bosh, the Heat have too few versatile offensive weapons to support LeBron. And of course, the three-peat efforts will be all for naught if anything happens to significantly hamper James.
Minnesota’s Chemistry
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Kevin Love is already an All-Star, and Nikola Pekovic and Ricky Rubio are both improving, but it remains to be seen whether the core Minnesota Timberwolves can succeed together.
Injuries to all three Wolves kept them from playing together for more than a handful of minutes last season. Hopefully, Minnesota will be able to build some rapport between them during the preseason, but stylistic issues could get in the way.
Fortunately, Rubio is a pass-first point guard, though his sub-40 shooting percentage makes him a relative non-factor as a scorer. With Pekovic positioned in the low post, Love will have to lean more heavily on his shooting for the sake of spacing, which will maroon one of the league's best rebounders away from the rim.
As if the offensive compatibility weren't tenuous enough, the combination of Pekovic and Love is problematic on defense. Neither blocks many shots or is mobile inside, which creates an interior liability that the pesky Rubio cannot offset alone.
If Minnesota's intriguing talent finally meshes, this team can push the Western elite in a series, but that remains to be seen.
OKC’s Creativity
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While Russell Westbrook is out, the Oklahoma City Thunder will focus on atoning for last year's postseason embarrassment.
The prodigious Thunder offense fell apart when its explosive point guard went down with a torn meniscus. Too much of the burden fell on Kevin Durant's shoulders as guys like Serge Ibaka and Reggie Jackson failed to produce as effectively when given larger roles.
When so many players come up short, the blame has to land on the coach's shoulders. Scott Brooks game-planned with a simplistic offense that used Westbrook's burst and creativity as a crutch. The strategy lacked mechanisms to get Ibaka open looks with Jackson at the helm, something Brooks will have to adjust before Westbrook returns.
OKC was going to have to address this problem anyway; the Westbrook injury is just an excuse to do so now. With as many as five other Western teams legitimately vying for a Finals berth, whatever Brooks comes up with will be vital regardless of who's running the point.
The Young Wings’ Leap
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Between Paul George with the Pacers and Kawhi Leonard with the San Antonio Spurs, the young stars of last postseason will have to sustain their brief greatness to carry their respective teams.
Both guys wowed the league when they went toe-to-toe with LeBron James. Their length and athleticism make them terrors on the defensive end; that was true prior to the postseason, but each player's bout with the Heat proved it on another level. There is no reason to expect otherwise from either going forward.
Offense is another story.
Leonard took on a more ball-dominant role after Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili both got banged up, but he hasn't displayed the ability to locate the open man in the Spurs system. Similarly, George needs to be more consistent from beyond the arc in order to prevent defenses from sagging off and taking away his drive.
Jimmy Butler of the Bulls and Iman Shumpert of the New York Knicks can also increase their stock with some offensive improvement, but each already has a superstar teammate to dictate the offense. As the Spurs age and the Pacers grow, they will need Leonard and George, respectively, to thrive as offensive linchpins, both in terms of creativity and productivity.
