Why the San Francisco Giants' Struggles Are Nearly Over

The San Francisco Giants have stumbled out of the gate to a 38-39 start, but they have the tools to repeat as World Series champions.

Sure, there have been dark signs. Angel Pagan will be out until September with a torn hamstring. The starting pitching has been suspect. Brian Wilson and his beard are nowhere to be found.

But there will be October baseball in San Francisco. In the National League West, where any team can rise to the top with a winning streak, the Giants will return to the playoffs.

A Close Race

The Giants hold fourth place in the NL West, but they are just 3.5 games out of first. What’s more, the Rockies, Padres and Diamondbacks all have gaping holes in their rosters.

Colorado is extremely top-heavy, but Carlos Gonzalez and Troy Tulowitzki can’t carry the whole team, especially with Tulo out the next three to five weeks. Michael Cuddyer has been huge, but his .385 Batting Average on Balls In Play (BABIP, per FanGraphs) means a second-half regression is likely.

Oddly enough, San Diego has the opposite problem: too many average players, not enough stars to rise above the competition. The Padres are ranked no higher than 14th in the majors for any key hitting or pitching stat.

Arizona will be the Giants’ biggest obstacle, but its starting pitching is beatable. After second-year sensation Patrick Corbin, the rotation is composed of Trevor Cahill (4.29 ERA), Wade Miley (4.70), Brandon McCarthy (5.00) and Ian Kennedy (5.21).

Trade Deadline Targets

Remember, this isn’t Oakland. The Bay Area’s richer team can, and likely will, improve its roster by trading for a big-name player in July.

As reported by Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald, the Giants have been linked to Miami starter Ricky Nolasco, a power righty who would welcome a trade to a contender.

And when you play for the Marlins, nearly every other team seems like a contender. Same goes for Matt Garza of the Cubs and Bud Norris of the Astros.

San Francisco will probably end up with one of the three, all of whom have a similar build and repertoire. Other NL West teams figure to be aggressive as well, as B/R’s Scott Semmler said, so the Giants need to make a move to stay in the hunt.

New Blood in the Outfield

Angel Pagan’s injury might be a blessing in disguise. The 31-year-old center fielder was a team leader, but he wasn't contributing much before he was hurt on May 25.

The Giants have homegrown prospects Francisco Peguero, Roger Kieschnick and Gary Brown waiting in Triple-A, and all three could be called up before Pagan returns in September.

Peguero is a speedster who swiped 40 bases in High-A ball back in 2010. He is currently hitting .310 in Fresno. For more power, the Giants could pull up Kieschnick, who also provides above-average defense in the corners.

The hype surrounding Brown has faded a bit this year because of his struggles at the dish, but his range and arm in center would go a long ways in cavernous AT&T Park.

Since Andres Torres and Gregor Blanco can play anywhere in the outfield, the Giants don’t need Brown immediately, though some fans clamor for his wheels in a speed-deprived lineup. Peguero will probably get the first promotion, while Kieschnick and Brown could join him later in the year.

Improved Starting Pitching

After emerging as a bona fide ace last year, Matt Cain had a terrible April, exiting the month with a 6.49 ERA.

Cain has turned it around since then, dropping his ERA to a more respectable 4.54. Now Cain and Madison Bumgarner form a potent one-two punch at the front of the rotation.

Barry Zito has been lights-out at home and lit up on the road. Batters are hitting just .235 when he pitches in San Francisco, but that average jumps nearly 200 points away from the city.

What’s the problem? Bad luck. Hitters have an absurd .511 BABIP when Zito visits their parks, per CSN Bay Area’s Andrew Baggarly. That’s bound to drop off in the second half.

Tim Lincecum’s dwindling velocity is well documented, but he found a way to cope last year by hitting the corners. Everything has been down the pipe this season, according to FanGraphs’ analysis.

Cain is solid and Bumgarner is capable of shutting down playoff-bound teams.

Lincecum needs to make some changes, and Zito’s road troubles will end soon. When the Giants get Ryan Vogelsong and Chad Gaudin back from the DL, the starters should be less of a concern. And if a marquee trade brings in another arm, the rotation will once again be a strength.

The 'Pen Is Mightier

Opposing hitters have been shut down this year in late innings thanks to the deadly combination of Javier Lopez, Santiago Casilla and Sergio Romo.

In his second season as closer, Romo has slammed the door in 18 of 21 save opportunities. Casilla holds hitters to a .167 batting average, while Lopez is mainly used against power-hitting lefties.

Jeremy Affeldt used to be equally effective against both sides of the plates. Now the veteran has evolved into a southpaw killer, and Jose Mijares has filled in against righties.

Fill-ins Chad Gaudin, Jean Machi and recent call-up Jake Dunning have all been effective in bullpen stints. The Giants’ relievers have a cumulative 3.17 ERA, fifth-best in the NL.

Finally Some Offense

In past seasons, the knock on the Giants has been a lack of offense. There is still room for improvement, but this year’s team can swing the bat.

Remember Hunter Pence’s dismal performance after he was acquired at the trade deadline last year? The right fielder now leads the team in home runs and stolen bases.

Second baseman Marco Scutaro’s torrid playoff run carried over to the regular season, and the Giants’ offensive success has followed. San Francisco’s .272 team batting average is second in the league, while Scutaro’s .323 clip ranks fifth among individual players.

Gregor Blanco and Brandon Crawford have both made strides offensively, providing depth at the bottom of the lineup.

Last year’s MVP Buster Posey is hitting .308/.386/.500, and should return to the All-Star game. The offense is fine and will get even better now that third baseman Pablo Sandoval is off the DL.

With all the pieces in place, the Giants should return to the playoffs. And once postseason play starts, there’s no telling what might happen.