An Early Sneak Preview at 2013-14 NBA Title Odds

The celebratory champagne hasn't even begun to evaporate from the Miami Heat's specially embroidered NBA Finals jerseys, and already we're looking ahead to next year's NBA Finals.

It's never too early, right?

Truth be told, we here at Bleacher Report weren't the first to direct our collective gaze toward the spring of 2014. The linesmakers at LVH SuperBook in Las Vegas (via The Sporting News) revealed their futures for the Larry O'Brien Trophy the day after Game 2 of this year's ultimate series, which we've used as the basis for our pre-pre-pre-preseason projections. So, really, if anybody jumped the gun, it's them...

Not that you AREN'T curious to see what the soothsayers of Sin City have to say about the fate of the 2013-14 season, right? Why else would you be reading this right now?

But before we get too "meta" (not to be mistaken with "Metta") with this whole exercise, let's have a look at the way-too-early title odds for all 30 NBA teams as dictated by the bookees of Vegas.

Charlotte Bobcats: 500-1

Progress is the name of the game for Michael Jordan's Charlotte Bobcats.

They made some this past season in tripling their win total from seven to 21. They figure to make some more in 2013-14 with a new coaching staff, led by Steve Clifford, and a young core that'll include Kemba Walker, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Bismack Biyombo, Ramon Sessions and the No. 4 pick in the 2013 NBA draft.

But the upcoming draft class is decidedly weak, Gerald Henderson is due for a hefty raise and the rest of the roster hardly screams "playoffs," much less "championship." 

This team has too much work to do, from the perspectives of both the coaches and the front office, to dream of anything more than hitting it big in what should be a loaded 2014 draft lottery.

In the meantime, "progress," like "bird," is the word. 

Orlando Magic: 500-1

Ditto for the Orlando Magic, who made clear their intention to undergo a long, slow, painful rebuild when general manager Rob Hennigan sloughed off Dwight Howard for spare parts, draft picks and cap space last summer.

He could've just as well brought back a quality (but expensive) piece like Brook Lopez.

Look for the Magic to spend this offseason in search of a long-term solution at the point, particularly via trade (Eric Bledsoe, anybody?) or the draft, in which they'll be selecting second.

Detroit Pistons: 300-1

There's a lot to like about this Detroit Pistons team. They sport an intriguing, young frontcourt duo in Greg Monroe and Andre Drummond, a versatile (though poster-prone) guard in Brandon Knight, the eighth pick in the draft and (potentially) upward of $20 million in cap space with which to lure a free agent or two.

Then again, that last bit might not be the best thing when you consider the money that GM Joe Dumars threw at Ben Gordon and Charlie Villanueva back in 2009. Some doubts also remain about whether Dumars made the right move in hiring Maurice Cheeks to lead this group.

But there's talent on hand in the Motor City. If the Pistons find themselves a steady point guard, perhaps even by re-signing Jose Calderon, they could surprise some people with a push toward the playoff picture.

Into it, though? That's another story entirely.

Phoenix Suns: 300-1

The Andrew Wiggins/Jabari Parker/Julius Randle sweepstakes figures to be the Phoenix Suns' to lose.

That is a nice way of saying the Suns are going to stink in 2013-14. They're not exactly flush with cap room this summer after shelling out beaucoup bucks to Goran Dragic and Michael Beasley last summer. They will also be working under a neophyte head coach in Jeff Hornacek.

But at least their free-throw shooting should improve, assuming Hornacek's knack for knocking down freebies as a player (87.7 percent for his career, 14th best all time) translates to his time on the sidelines.

Milwaukee Bucks: 100-1

Monta Ellis is out of Milwaukee, and Brandon Jennings figures to join him on the open market come July 1. Their departures from Brew City should signal that it's time for a rebuild, that simply sneaking into the playoffs in the Eastern Conference every other year or so isn't good enough.

Except the Bucks' ownership is notorious for its comfort with hanging around the NBA's muddled middle. Doing even that much with a brand-new backcourt—and with Ersan Ilyasova, Larry Sanders and Luc Richard Mbah a Moute as your best building blocks—would be a tall task for Milwaukee.

But J.J. Redick could be back, and maybe the Bucks will find a way to keep Jennings from bolting to the big cities with which he's long flirted. If nothing else, new head coach Larry Drew is intimately familiar with leading middling teams into the postseason from his days with the Atlanta Hawks.

Philadelphia 76ers: 100-1

The Philadelphia 76ers are currently without a head coach and have yet to indicate whether they'd entertain granting Andrew Bynum a do-over on his lost 2012-13 campaign. Those two factors go a long way toward explaining Philly's even longer title odds.

But you could do worse than start your team with Thaddeus Young, Evan Turner and All-Star guard Jrue Holiday. If Bynum returns fit and at a steep discount and the Sixers snag a promising assistant to lead from the bench, this team could find itself back in the Eastern Conference playoffs in short order.

Though that hardly guarantees a shot at the Larry O'Brien Trophy.

Toronto Raptors: 100-1

There may be hope yet for basketball north of the border. 

The Toronto Raptors head into the summer with a talented (if overpaid) roster, an ownership group that's willing to spend and a GM in Masai Ujiri who's proven that he can and will wield financial might wisely. 

That could mean a return to the playoffs for the first time since Chris Bosh skipped town, especially if Rudy Gay's corrective eye procedure translates to improved shooting accuracy.

That being said, it's still way too soon to start talking about titles in T-Dot. Let's see whether Kyle Lowry can stay healthy, Ujiri can move Andrea Bargnani's onerous contract, and the wing combo of Gay and DeMar DeRozan can lead the Raps back to the postseason before anyone gets any funny ideas.

 

Washington Wizards: 100-1

The Washington Wizards have all the makings of a team ticketed for a playoff appearance in 2014.

They played appreciably better after John Wall returned from injury, especially when considering Bradley Beal's uptick in accuracy alongside him. Their frontcourt is loaded with strong, savvy veterans in Nene and Emeka Okafor, and they may soon welcome a promising young addition by way of the third pick in the draft.

If the Wizards find a way to exterminate the injury bug (knock on wood), they'll be competing past the regular season for the first time since the Gilbert Arenas era took a turn for the weird.

Just don't hold your breath for any miraculous championship runs any time soon.

Cleveland Cavaliers: 100-1

We might be able to talk about the Cleveland Cavaliers competing for championships in 2014-15.

That is, if they can somehow lure LeBron James away from South Beach next summer, when he can opt out of his current contract with the Miami Heat.

Even that's a stretch, though. For now, the Cavs will be focused on shopping the No. 1 pick in this year's draft for a quality player (or two) to ball alongside Kyrie Irving in pursuit of a playoff spot. Anything beyond that would entail speculation of the more insane variety.

Sacramento Kings: 100-1

For the first time in years, the future looks bright for the Sacramento Kings.

New ownership has re-energized the long-downtrodden franchise with a new coach (Mike Malone) and a new GM (Pete D'Alessandro), in addition to its plans for a shiny, state-of-the-art arena in California's capital.

Now comes the hard part: figuring out what to do about the roster. Do the Kings retain Tyreke Evans, a former Rookie of the Year? Do they build around the mercurial DeMarcus Cousins? And what bearing might the No. 7 pick in the 2013 draft have on all this?

These questions will all take time to sort out—enough time to extend the Kings' current playoff drought to eight miserable seasons.

New Orleans Pelicans: 100-1

A new nickname isn't cause enough to believe in better results for the New Orleans Pelicans in 2013-14.

But a healthy, better adjusted Anthony Davis is. So is a fit Eric Gordon, an ever-improving Greivis Vasquez and the potential to add a quality piece to Monty Williams' rotation with the No. 6 pick in late June.

Still, patience is key in the Big Easy, even more so if Austin Rivers is to follow up his regrettable rookie season with something more palatable.

Minnesota Timberwolves: 100-1

The range of possibilities for the Minnesota Timberwolves in 2013-14 is vast—and for good reason.

On the one hand, Kevin Love and Ricky Rubio should both be healthy and ready to go after suffering through injury-plagued campaigns in 2012-13. Another year of seasoning certainly can't hurt for Derrick Williams and Alexey Shved, either.

On the other hand, there's no telling whether Love's silky smooth jumper will return to form after he broke his hand not once, but twice since last October. Nor is there any indication as to when (or if) Rubio will ever find the range on his.

Of greater concern, though, is the potential for turnover among the current roster. Nikola Pekovic is due a massive payday as a restricted free agent. Andrei Kirilenko, who was arguably Minny's best player this past season, could opt out of his current deal and test the market.

Losing either (or both) of those two would leave the Wolves woefully thin up front. Keep them in town, though, and Minny could wrap up its first postseason appearance in a decade.

Portland Trail Blazers: 100-1

Consider the Portland Trail Blazers among those teams who missed the postseason this year but could find themselves in the mix in 2014.

Their starting lineup was among the most potent in the NBA this past season. Damian Lillard will look to take the next step after winning Rookie of the Year unanimously, with the (hopefully) healthy trio of LaMarcus Aldridge, Nicolas Batum and Wesley Matthews by his side.

So long as the Blazers A) either re-sign J.J. Hickson or find a comparable replacement, B) add something to their league-worst bench and C) learn how to play defense under Terry Stotts, there will more than likely be playoff basketball in Rip City next spring. 

Utah Jazz: 100-1

The Utah Jazz's playoff chances are almost entirely contingent on two crucial considerations:

1. What are they going to do about Al Jefferson and Paul Millsap? Do they retain them both? Do they keep just one? Do they let them both walk?
2. Can GM Dennis Lindsey find a point guard...PLEASE?!

In any case, don't expect the Jazz to barge their way into the championship conversation.

Atlanta Hawks: 50-1

Like the Jazz, the Atlanta Hawks' hopes for 2013-14 rest heavily on what GM Danny Ferry does in free agency.

There's already been talk of Dwight Howard and Chris Paul potentially joining forces in the ATL. That would instantly transform the Hawks into contenders, though such a coup is a long shot at this point.

Realistically, the Hawks will weigh whether to keep Josh Smith and Jeff Teague to build another so-so playoff team or to let those players leave and go for a more earnest rebuild.

Unless, of course, they land one major free agent this summer, in which case...HELLO, MIDDLE OF THE EASTERN CONFERENCE! AGAIN!! 

Brooklyn Nets: 40-1

The Jason Kidd hire could go down as a smart one for the Brooklyn Nets, so long as they don't expect him to lead them to the Promised Land from the outset.

Remember, Kidd won't be playing for the Nets, so he can't exactly make up for their lackluster team defense or the decline of Joe Johnson (and Deron Williams?) in any direct way.

Nor do the Nets have the requisite financial flexibility to refresh their expensive, aging roster.

All of which adds up to another playoff appearance for Brooklyn, though probably nothing more than a trip to the second round.

If that.

Boston Celtics: 40-1

You can bet the Boston Celtics' title odds would've plummeted had the Los Angeles Clippers not gotten cold feet and pulled out of the Doc Rivers/Kevin Garnett deal.

(Assuming that's actually what happened, because who really knows with these things?)

There's still time for the C's to enlist the Clips' help in accelerating their own rebuilding effort, so long as L.A. remains without a head coach.

Whether Doc and KG stay or go, don't expect a championship parade in Beantown next year. Garnett and Paul Pierce will both be a year older, Rajon Rondo will be fresh off a torn ACL and the C's aren't exactly replete with the requisite cap space to engineer yet another meaningful overhaul. 

Dallas Mavericks: 40-1

So Mark Cuban has a two-year plan to turn the Dallas Mavericks into an NBA title contender again.

Phase 1: Lure a big free agent this summer (i.e. Dwight Howard or Chris Paul).

Phase 2: Lure ANOTHER big free agent next summer, after re-signing Dirk Nowitzki at a steep discount.

Phase 3: Collect underpants...?

OK, so maybe I made up the last part. Still, a return to the playoffs would be a solid goal for the Mavs in 2014, with or without another big name, before gearing up for even bigger and better things come 2015.

Houston Rockets: 25-1

You can bet Houston will "rocket" up the ladder of title contenders if it lands Dwight Howard this summer.

(See what I just did there? OK, I'll stop.)

In all seriousness, the Rockets would be a real threat to compete with the San Antonio Spurs and the Oklahoma City Thunder out West with (a healthy) Howard manning the middle alongside James Harden, Chandler Parsons, and whoever emerges from the battles at point guard (Jeremy Lin versus Patrick Beverley) and power forward (Carlos Delfino versus Terrence Jones versus Donatas Motiejunas versus Thomas Robinson, if he doesn't get traded).

If Houston can sustain its offensive output (sixth in offensive efficiency last season) and overhaul its defense (17th in defensive efficiency), then Kevin McHale and Co. might just be onto something in Space City.

Golden State Warriors: 25-1

The Golden State Warriors were the Cinderella story of the 2013 playoffs. They upset the hobbled Denver Nuggets in the first round and had the runner-up San Antonio Spurs on the ropes before dropping Games 5 and 6 of their second-round series.

On paper, the Warriors' core of Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson and Harrison Barnes is as enticing as any in the league. The former two established themselves as arguably the greatest shooting backcourt of all time, while the latter enjoyed a breakout performance as a rookie in the postseason.

All three will be 25 or younger by the time the 2013-14 campaign begins.

But Curry's ankle will forever be a concern, as will Thompson's streaky stroke. Andrew Bogut is only the second-least physically reliable "Andrew B." in the NBA today, but that's not saying much. And David Lee, for all of his obvious productivity, is still a massive minus on the defensive end for Golden State.

Throw in the potential departures of Jarrett Jack and Carl Landry amid the team's impending cap crunch, and the Dubs may have to take a step back next season before they can make a more significant leap forward thereafter.

Denver Nuggets: 25-1

If the Denver Nuggets were a function from your high school math class, they'd look something like this.

Losing Danilo Gallinari to a torn ACL was a big blow, but the Nuggets recovered well enough. They won five of six in Gallo's absence to secure the third seed in the West.

Falling to the upstart Warriors in the first round seemed like a devastating collapse. But Gallo was gone, Ty Lawson and Kenneth Faried were both banged-up and Golden State's "Splash Brothers" were Danny Green before Danny Green was even a thing.

Unfortunate circumstances may have felled the Nuggets this time, but the future in Denver was still looking mighty bright, especially with the Coach (George Karl) and Executive of the Year (Masai Ujiri) on board.

Then Ujiri bolted for Toronto, Karl got the ax after pushing for a new contract, Andre Iguodala opted for free agency and here we are. The West's "dark horse" is far darker now. The head coach is still TBD, Iggy might be gone for good and Gallo probably won't be back in action until some time in 2014.

That means Denver will be without its third-highest-paid player for a good chunk of next season, while its second-highest-paid player (JaVale McGee) likely continues to search aimlessly for his basketball identity.

How quickly circumstances change.

Los Angeles Lakers: 25-1

Who's setting the lines at the LVH SuperBook? No, really, who's at fault here?

Because there's no way that the Lakers should have the same odds to win the NBA title as do the Nuggets, Warriors and Rockets. Let me count the reasons:

1. Kobe Bryant is aiming for a return in November or December from his torn Achilles, but he probably won't be anywhere near a useful version of himself until January or February. That is, assuming he ever regains any semblance of his pre-injury self.
2. Pau Gasol turns 33 in early July and is coming off the worst season of his pro career.
3. Ditto for Steve Nash, who'll be 40 by early February of 2014.
4. Dwight Howard is maybe, probably (hopefully?) gone via free agency. And even if he does return, there's no telling how much of his Orlando Magic self he'll have recovered a year-and-a-half removed from major back surgery.
5. The Lakers bench was awful last season, but the front office will be hard-pressed to upgrade it on account of a massive payroll, with or without Dwight.
6. Whatever success Mike D'Antoni enjoys, after leading the Lakers to a 28-12 finish in 2012-13, is bound to be undermined by Phil Jackson.

On the bright side, this guy still plays for the Lakers. Maybe he's the one who's gotten Vegas' L.A. contingent so excited about the Purple and Gold's prospects for 2014...

New York Knicks: 20-1

Sorry to break it to you, Knicks fans, but this past season might have been the best shot at contention that this current cast will wind up having.

Tyson Chandler looked old and broken down toward the end of New York's run, which is better than Amar'e Stoudemire looking that way the whole time.

Until you factor in that Stoudemire will out-earn Chandler by more than $16 million over the duration of their respective contracts. Those don't come due until 2015, at which point the Knicks will be flush with cap space.

For now, the Knicks are stuck with a superstar in Carmelo Anthony and a supporting cast whose price tags A) would've been more in line with the names to whom they're attached if this were, say, 2008, and B) would send no fewer than half the NBA's owners into complete sticker shock.

Fortunately for the Knicks, their owner is James Dolan, whose pockets are deeper than the depression into which the team's fans have flung themselves since the early 1970s. Unfortunately for the Knicks...their owner is James Dolan, who seems more concerned with pursuing his rock n' roll camp fantasies than with running a basketball team.

In that sense, then, New York's 20-1 title odds are actually rather generous—cold comfort for anyone who frequents Madison Square Garden.

Memphis Grizzlies: 20-1

Note to self: Don't piss off your bosses. You're never invincible, even if you're really, really good at your job.

Just ask Lionel Hollins. He clashed with the Memphis Grizzlies' new management throughout the 2012-13 season, going so far as to take potshots at his superiors through the media.

As a result, Hollins was shown the door, even after leading the Grizzlies to their first-ever appearance in the Western Conference Finals (and second playoff sweep at the hands of the Spurs in franchise history).

Of course, that has repercussions of its own for the Grizz. They'll head into the upcoming campaign with a new voice barking at them from the bench.

That is borderline unfathomable when considering the extent to which this group—led by Marc Gasol, Zach Randolph and Mike Conley—took on the grit-and-grind personality of its coach. 

The front office's plate is already overflowing with cap-related personnel concerns, from re-signing Tony Allen and keeping Jerryd Bayless to deepening the team's thin reserves and stocking up on perimeter shooting.

That's all while trying to manage a minuscule budget for an organization planted in one of the NBA's smallest media markets.

This team can still contend in the West, but don't be surprised if they make a major move (i.e. trade Z-Bo) at some point to free up some flexibility for the future.

Los Angeles Clippers: 15-1

The immediate hopes of the Clippers are almost entirely wrapped up in the NBA's already-churning summer rumor mill.

Will Doc Rivers replace Vinny Del Negro? Will Kevin Garnett join him on his potential sojourn from New England? What about Paul Pierce?

And what does all of this mean for Chris Paul's free agency? What about Blake Griffin, who's been mentioned in some rather salacious gossip regarding a sign-and-trade with the rival Lakers involving Dwight Howard?

The future is bright and the possibilities endless. But these are the Clippers. If history is any guide, there's a good chance they'll find a way to screw this up somehow.

Indiana Pacers: 15-1

The Pacers pushing the Heat to seven games in the Eastern Conference Finals was no accident. This is a tough, talented bunch that appears poised to (finally) re-energize the long-disillusioned hoops fans of Indianapolis.

The checklist of tasks to keep the Pacers on the path to title contention is seemingly a simple one for the team's front-office brain trust:

• Re-sign David West.
• Fill out their terrible bench with size, ball-handling and a pinch of shooting.
• Hope that Danny Granger can still play after knee surgery.

So long as those three things hold and Paul George and Lance Stephenson continue to improve, the Pacers should be in prime position to contend for "top dog" status in the East once again in 2014.

San Antonio Spurs: 7-1

The San Antonio Spurs' title window won't be closed yet, even after losing out on their fifth championship. They'll be flush with cap space this summer, space that's largely contingent on the future of Manu Ginobili.

If he retires, the Spurs will have approximately $17 million to spend on the open market. If he doesn't, San Antonio can probably bring him back at a steep discount from the $14.1 million he earned in 2012-13.

Either way, the Spurs are set up to compete next season and beyond, so long as Tim Duncan can still play. Tony Parker is a perennial MVP contender, Kawhi Leonard looks like a star in the making and Danny Green and Tiago Splitter have emerged as role players supreme.

The Spurs don't need much to get back to the finals other than another year and, as was the case this spring, a little bit of luck.

Chicago Bulls: 7-1

Apparently, the oddsmakers feel as good about Derrick Rose as the Chicago Bulls do, if not better. As head coach Tom Thibodeau recently told Jon Greenberg of ESPN Chicago:

"I worked him out about a week ago. It was great. Watching the way he's moving now, there's a confidence. [Reporters] may not have been able to see the total work he was putting in. But he was putting in an enormous amount of work each and every day. He just never got to the explosiveness he was comfortable with. I think he's there now. He feels great, and that's the most important thing."

The Bulls had better hope so. Chicago did well to win 45 games, finish fifth in the East, advance to the second round of the postseason and claim a postseason victory on the road against the defending champs.

But there's no way in you-know-where that the Bulls are so much as sniffing the Larry O'Brien Trophy unless Rose is back to being his superstar self.

Realistically, GM Gar Forman will have to find a way to fit a shooter or two into the team's taxed-out framework if the Bulls are going to so quickly reclaim their spot among the upper echelon in the Eastern Conference.

Oklahoma City Thunder: 9-2

The Oklahoma City Thunder probably would've been back in the finals battling the Miami Heat this year if not for those meddling kids Patrick Beverley an unfortunate turn of events for Russell Westbrook in the first round of the 2013 playoffs.

Westbrook, though, appears to be recovering well from April knee surgery. According to ESPN, he's already off crutches. While there's still no timetable for his return, chances are Russ will be ready when the 2013-14 season tips off.

In the meantime, OKC's front office has its work cut out for it this summer. GM Sam Presti will have to determine whether or not his team can afford to bring back Kevin Martin and (if not) who'd replace his scoring off the bench.

That's not to mention figuring out what to do with the sloth-like, 6'10'' slab that Kendrick Perkins has become.

That being said, having two of the 10 best players on the planet (Kevin Durant and Westbrook) on the same team is a darn good start for the Thunder, even if Scott Brooks' reputation as a schemer and play-caller has slipped toward Vinny Del Negro territory.

Miami Heat: 7-4

The Miami Heat had a bear of a time defending their title in 2012-13. Extending their championship streak to three will be even more difficult.

Between Dwyane Wade's knees, Chris Bosh's inconsistency and the advancing age of the supporting cast, this Heat team probably isn't built to contend for much longer.

Especially when you consider how capped-out Miami is into infinite...and how worn out this club is from playing in three straight finals series. All of which is to say, the Heat could desperately use an infusion of new, young blood.

Then again, so long as the Heat have LeBron James on their side, and so long as LeBron, now a two-time Finals MVP, is still the best player in the league by such a long shot, there will always be opportunity for championship celebrations in Biscayne Bay.

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