Projecting Miami Heat's NBA Title Window

Despite LeBron James' infamous boast nearly three years ago, the Miami Heat won't win seven titles with he, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh all serving as the team's core group.

So far, the Big Three has brought home one Larry O'Brien Trophy and is well on its way to a second. But the "Era of Good Feelings" down on South Beach will probably come to an end soon, and there isn't much that can be done to stop it.

The smart money says that Miami's title window will slam shut on or around July 1, 2014. On that date, Bosh, James and Wade could all potentially be free agents if they choose to exercise the early termination option on their respective deals.

If any one of them were to leave Miami, the Heat would have their work cut out for them in a rapidly improving Eastern Conference. If two (or perhaps even all three) decide to take their talents elsewhere, Miami may as well start the rebuilding process immediately.

Quite simply, the salary cap is Miami's archnemesis going forward, regardless of whether the Big Three stay intact following the 2013-14 campaign. If Bosh, James and Wade were to all pass on their early termination options—and if Mike Miler, Udonis Haslem and Joel Anthony all exercise their player options—the Heat will be on the hook for more than $75 million for just six players.

That, of course, would make it difficult to fill out the roster, and would almost assuredly end the team's run of dominance.

Of course, a second title may change things.

If Miami wins it all this and/or next year, perhaps James and Co. decide to stick it out for the long term. There's nothing stopping the trio from going the ETO route in the summer of 2014 and renegotiating deals that are more cap friendly.

It would be a bold, unprecedented move...and extremely unlikely as well. There are very few instances in today's game where superstar-level talents who have won titles have been able to co-exist for an extended period of time.

Shaquille O'Neal and Kobe Bryant could have gone down in the annals of the NBA as one of the game's greatest duos, but ego ultimately got in the way. At some point, Bosh and/or James may suddenly get the urge to forge his/their own path, and part ways with the Miami Heat.

The health of Dwyane Wade could also spell the demise of Miami's title chances. Two seasons ago, he was the best player in the NBA Finals against the Dallas Mavericks. These days, it's a struggle for him to score 20 points in a game.

Offseason surgery may help Wade regain some of his form, but he's no longer the transcendent player that he was for the early part of his Heat career. And while it wouldn't be hard to see James remain with Miami if Wade decided to walk away from the game, the team's championship prospects would take a severe hit.

Then, of course, there's the issue of competition. It only seems probable that the Indiana Pacers will improve over the next couple of seasons, and the Chicago Bulls will be at or near the top of the Eastern Conference standings once Derrick Rose returns from his ACL tear.

Out West, the Oklahoma City Thunder remain a formidable opponent for the Heat, and the San Antonio Spurs may have a couple of more years/titles left in them before Tim Duncan rides off into the sunset.

Dwight Howard is an X-factor in this situation as well: If he goes to a team poised to make a run at a championship, the Heat would be hard pressed to match up with him on the interior.

In a perfect world—perfect for Heat fans, anyway—James, Wade and Bosh would win two more titles, re-work their deals next summer to free up a massive amount of cap space and continue to run roughshod over the NBA.

Reality is a cruel mistress, however, and even the best-laid plans often go to waste. Miami's title window won't be open forever, and it may be shut sooner than anyone imagined.