Breaking Down the Minnesota Vikings' Blueprint for Going .500

It's time for things to count for the Minnesota Vikings. After sparingly playing their starters in the preseason, the Vikings open the 2012 season against the Jacksonville Jaguars this coming Sunday. It will be the battle of second-year quarterbacks and backup running backs when the teams meet on September 9th. 

For head coach Leslie Frazier, this has to be the start of a turnaround. After losing in overtime to the Saints in the 2009 NFC Championship game, the Vikings have finished last in the NFC North with a combined 9-23 record over the past two seasons.

The Vikings ended last season with glaring deficiencies in the offensive line, at wide receiver, cornerback and safety. Through the draft, free agency and trades, the Vikings have addressed each of these areas.  

Early returns in Las Vegas have the Vikings over/under win total set at six, with more people betting on the under, according to Gambling911.  

In a poll from VirginiaMN.com, 38 percent of the respondents see the Vikings winning between five and seven games.

That seems about right as the Vikings have the eighth-toughest schedule (via ESPN) in the NFL with seven quality opponents—those with at least nine wins in 2011. Four of those games against quality opponents will be within the division when the Vikings face the Packers and Lions twice each.

Here's how the Vikings might be able to overachieve and sneak up on some opponents to hit eight wins on the season.

Youth Movement:

One thing is very evident with the moves the Vikings made in finalizing their 53-man roster—they are going young.

There are only three players older than 30 and another four who are 30. Cornerback Antoine Winfield, a 14-year veteran, is the oldest player on the roster at the age of 35.

Head coach Leslie Frazier and his coaching staff chose youth and potential in most cases over age and experience.

Rookie Josh Robinson, second-year player Marcus Sherels and newly acquired, three-year veteran A.J. Jefferson all made the roster as backup cornerbacks over veterans Zack Bowman (28-years old) and Chris Carr (29).

McLeod Bethel-Thompson, an undrafted rookie in 2011, was named the third-string quarterback over 10-yer veteran Sage Rosenfels, even though Rosenfels outplayed every quarterback on the roster during the preseason.

Safety Andrew Sendejo, who has played in just five games the last two seasons, beat out Eric Frampton, who has played on the Vikings' special teams for five years.

The third running back position was given to Matt Asiata, yet another undrafted rookie in 2011 who spent last season on the Vikings' practice squad. He beat out three-year player Lex Hilliard, a sixth-round draft pick of the Dolphins in 2008.

Asiata opened training camp as a fullback, but his 91 yards on 16 carries were enough to convince the coaching staff he was better than Hilliard, who finished with only 20 yards on nine carries.  

With youth, you get players close to their physical prime, but without the experience, there will be a learning curve, and mistakes will be made.

Control the line of scrimmage:

The strongest part of the Vikings team last season was the defensive line. Minnesota shared the league lead in sacks with Philadelphia at 50. Jared Allen set the single-season franchise record with 22 sacks, surpassing new Hall of Fame inductee Chris Doleman who owned the previous record of 21 sacks set in 1989. Second-year starter Brian Robison added another eight sacks from the other end.

The line will be improved over last season with Letroy Guion taking over at nose tackle for Remi Ayodele alongside Kevin Williams, who played last with plantar faciitis.   

On the other side of the ball, the Vikings made a huge upgrade at left tackle with the addition of Matt Kalil, the fourth overall pick in the draft from USC. That allows Charlie Johnson to move inside to guard, taking over for Steve Hutchinson who had not played in all 16 games since 2009.

Brandon Fusco, the second-year player from Slippery Rock, gets the start on the other side as the right guard and will play alongside Phil Loadholt. A second-round draft pick in 2009, Loadholt has played in 47-of-48 games, all as a starter.

Anchoring the line is John Sullivan who is developing into one of the top centers in the league. According to a report by Pro Football Focus (h/t Rotoworld), Sullivan graded out as the second-best center in the NFL toward the end of last season.

With three new starters on the line, it might take some time to learn to work together.

Improve the defensive backfield:

This shouldn't be tough for the Vikings. After all, they finished last in the NFL, allowing 34 touchdown passes, and finishing 31st with only eight interceptions. 

The key to the improvement will not necessarily be the ability of Winfield and Chris Cook to play the entire season but the depth and talent of the backups. 

The addition of Jefferson, who started seven games for the Cardinals last season, provides not only an upgrade but could challenge as Cook and Winfield as a starter. 

The increase in talent comes with third-round draft pick Josh Robinson out of Central Florida. Slowed by a hamstring injury, he did not see much action in the preseason. 

Marcus Sherels and Brandon Burton, both of whom were pressed into starting duty late last season, will need to show improvement when they get a chance to play.

The biggest improvement will come from safety Harrison Smith. Although currently listed as Jamarca Sanford's backup on the depth chart (vikings.com), it won't be long until the hard-hitting rookie becomes the starter.

Run-first offense:

Speaking of the offensive line, even though only Loadholt and Johnson started all 16 games, the Vikings had the fourth-best rushing offense, averaging 144.9 yards per game, despite the fact that Adrian Peterson had his poorest season with only 970 yards rushing.

Despite the fact Peterson is only nine months removed from having reconstructive surgery on his left knee and did not play in the preseason, the Vikings running game will still be formidable. 

Toby Gerhart gets the nod as the Vikings' starter to open the season. Last season, his average per carry was actually better than Peterson's at 4.9 compared to 4.7 yards. A more straight-ahead runner, Gerhart isn't as fast as Peterson, but he will be nearly as effective with the ability to catch passes out of the backfield.

As Peterson's backup, he caught 23 passes with three touchdowns, while Peterson only had 18 catches with one touchdown.

The Vikings can also use Percy Harvin out of the backfield. Last season, he finished third on the team with 345 rushing yards. Used either in the backfield or on the end-around, Harvin averaged 6.6 yards per carry with two rushing touchdowns. 

By running the ball effectively the Vikings will achieve three things—keep the opposing offense off the field, shorten the game up by keeping the clock moving and making it easier for Ponder to manage the offense. 

Effective play from the tight ends:

The Vikings signed former Seattle tight end John Carlson to a five-year, $25 million contract. It was the biggest splash the Vikings made in free agency. A strained MCL sprain prevented Carlson from playing this preseason. After missing the entire 2011 season with a shoulder injury, he has not played in a game since the divisional round of the playoffs in 2010. 

Currently listed second on the depth chart, if the Vikings are to be successful, Carlson needs to get up to speed quickly. 

Second-year player Kyle Rudolph opens as the top tight end on the roster. By the end of last season, he replaced Visanthe Shiancoe as the starting tight end by making some great catches. Look for him to be Ponder's favorite target as the two continue to develop together. 

Ponder needs to raise his game to the next level:

There were plenty of excuses for Ponder's 2-8 record as a starter last season. There were no OTAs, training camp was shorter than usual, the offensive line was not good and he did not have a decent set of receivers. 

All of those have been addressed. Ponder came into the year as the starter. As mentioned above, the line is better, and the receiving corp cannot be any worse than last season, and once Jerome Simpson is able to play in Week 4, it will be better. 

At this point, the Vikings don't need him to win games but just don't lose them. Last season, he struggled with the quick out and threw too many interceptions. His interception this preseason against the Chargers was a perfect example of his struggles.

Playing behind an improved offensive line will help. 

Win the games they are supposed to win:

While the Vikings have seven games against quality opponents, that means they have nine games against teams that won eight or fewer games last season. 

The Vikings need to make sure and take advantage of these games; they provide the best chances for victories.

The season opener against the Jaguars at home is a great place to start. Along with Jacksonville, the Vikings will face the Cardinals and Buccaneers at home. 

On the road, they play the two teams that finished below them in the NFL last season, the Colts and the Rams. It will only be Andrew Luck's second start in the NFL, so hopefully, he will still be figuring things out. Even the great Peyton Manning, whom he replaced in Indianapolis, finished 3-13 during his rookie season of 1998. 

As for the Rams, this is a franchise still trying to figure things out. They have not had a winning season since 2003. 

Surprise a division opponent at home:

Since the NFL went to eight divisions, the Vikings are 31-29 against the Packers, Bears and Lions. Against Detroit, they are 66-33-2 since joining the league in 1961. Before being swept in the season series last year, the Vikings were 16-2 against them since 2002.

Last year, Donovan McNabb and the Vikings blew a 20-0 halftime lead in Week 3 at the Metrodome, losing 26-23 in overtime. In the Week 14 games at Detroit, the Vikings were poised to score the go-ahead touchdown when quarterback Webb fumbled the ball on the goal line. On the play, there was a face-mask penalty that should have been called, giving the ball back to the Vikings. 

The Vikings also have a winning record against Chicago, holding a slight 52-47-2 edge. Unfortunately, they currently have a five-game losing streak that started with a Week 16 overtime loss in Chicago in 2009. Coming off an 8-8 season, the Bears represent the next-weakest team in the NFC North. 

In order to reach the .500 mark, the Vikings need to pull off a win over the Lions or Bears at home.

Get on a roll and keep rolling:

The Vikings have a stretch in the middle of the season between Week 6 and Week 9 where they don't face a team with a winning record. 

They travel to Washington (5-11) on October 14th, where Frazier and the Vikings have won the last two seasons. Then, they host the Cardinals (8-8) and Buccaneers (4-12) before facing the Seahawks (7-9) in Seattle.

A strong showing, with at least three wins, might just provide some confidence to a young team when they need it most. 

In Week 10, they host the Lions before embarking on the toughest stretch of the schedule. The final six games are against the Packers (Week 13 and 17), Bears (Week 12 and 14) and the Texans (Week 16).

The only soft spot is Week 15 when the Vikings travel to St. Louis. 

Stay consistent where they're good and get better where they were weak:

Bottom line—the Vikings need to continue to do what they did well last season, sacking the quarterback and running the ball, and get better at passing the ball and stopping the opposition's passing game.