Tampa Bay Rays: 5 Reasons They Will Catch the New York Yankees and Win AL East

The Tampa Bay Rays in the New York Yankees mirror are much closer than they appear.

On July 19, the Yankees had what seemed to be a very comfortable 10.5-game lead on the AL East. At that time it seemed that the Rays and Yankees were headed in different directions. New York had won eight of its last 10 games, while Tampa Bay had lost six of its last 10.

What a difference one month makes.

Now, 36 days and 22 wins later, the Rays find themselves just three games back of the Yankees. They are playing some of the best baseball in the majors and are in hot pursuit of the division lead as they enter a three-game series with the Oakland Athletics.

With the changes to the postseason this year, winning the division is much more important than the AL Wild Card. The Rays need to continue to close the gap if they have any World Series aspirations, as the team just isn’t built to win a one-game playoff.

David Price received a no-decision in three of his last five starts where his pitching was dominant. In the three starts, he threw a combined 23 innings only giving up three earned runs in one start and none in the other two.

The Rays lost all three of those games.

Since the offense hasn’t been consistently able to keep up with the dominant pitching, a one-game playoff scenario is not ideal for this team. They have to win the division where they are guaranteed the ALDS, in which their rotation should be strong enough to advance them forward in the playoffs.

In order to do that, though, they must first catch and pass the Yankees. Here are five reasons to believe they can and will.

Lessons Learned from 2011

The Tampa Bay Rays' historic comeback last season was the perfect preparation for the adversity they have faced this season.

Coming back from nine games back to win the AL Wild Card over the Boston Red Sox proved that anything is possible for this young team with a budget payroll. It also reaffirmed the fact that there are 162 games in the season and they all carry the same weight.

Successfully accomplishing a feat like that makes it easier for a team to remain resilient—even after injuries, perfect games and frustrating one-run losses. It also doesn’t hurt the Rays to have a manager like Joe Maddon, who keeps things loose but focused so the team is always in its best mindset to go into the next game or series.

The Rays are probably the most mentally tough team in baseball, and that mental toughness is what will be needed to pass the Yankees to win the division.

Head-to-Head Schedule

The New York Yankees and Tampa Bay Rays have six head-to-head games remaining in September. Both teams will host a three-game series, with the first in Tampa Bay starting on September 3. The Rays currently lead the series 7-5.

If the Rays win both series, it would leave them only needing to win two more games than the Yankees in the other 32 games remaining on the schedule.

The division will very likely come down to the team that wins the most out of those six games. Even then, it is still possible that it could even come down to the last game of the season, making for a very exciting pennant race.

Injuries

CC Sabathia, Alex Rodriguez, Andy Pettitte and Brett Gardner are among the players currently on the New York Yankees disabled list.

The Yankees need all hands on deck as they prepare to go into the final month of the season. They are coming off of a three-game sweep by the Chicago White Sox and have lost five of their last 10 games.

Sabathia is expected to be back and starting on August 24 against the Cleveland Indians. Hopefully for the Yankees, the left-handed pitcher’s left elbow pain doesn’t reoccur or prove to be a lingering injury down the stretch.

Rodriguez and the other injured players are possibly expected to return in September.

If they are still missing key pieces of their lineup when they face the Tampa Bay Rays in the two series in September, it could give the Rays the advantage they need to take the division.

Rays Finally Healthy

The Tampa Bay Rays are on the opposite end of the injury problem, as they are finally healthy for the first time this season. At some point throughout the season, the team has seen Evan Longoria, B.J. Upton, Luke Scot and Matt Joyce among others on the disabled list.

Since Evan Longoria returned to the lineup August 7, the Rays are 12-3 and have outscored opponents 85-36, averaging 5.67 runs per game.

With the return of Luke Scott from the disabled list on Tuesday, the Rays are finally able to put out the lineup that was planned in spring training.

Having healthy players will do more for the team than just help to solidify the lineup, it also will provide the depth that the team needs to be able to rest players. They can keep players fresh when they have to play a day game following a night game or after a long road trip.

As we enter the final stretch, having healthy and rested players will be pivotal to their chances of winning their third division title in the last five years.

Rays Pitching

The Tampa Bay Rays have the quality of pitching good enough to lead them to the World Series.  

The Rays currently lead the AL with a 3.27 ERA. The last four American League teams to finish the season with an ERA of 3.27 or better all advanced to the World Series (1990 Oakland A’s with 3.18, 1989 Oakland A’s with 3.09, 1981 New York Yankees with 2.90 and 1978 New York Yankees with 3.18).

The Rays also lead the AL in strikeouts with 1,026. They are on pace for an AL-record 1,342 strikeouts. The current record is held by the 2001 Yankees with 1,266 strikeouts.

Since the All-Star break, the Rays pitchers have been virtually unstoppable with a 2.25 ERA, 341 strikeouts and an opponent batting average of .204, all MLB-leading numbers. They have only given up 88 earned runs and 95 runs total since the break, both 25 runs fewer than the St. Louis Cardinals that would be second on the list.

If the Rays pitchers continue to be dominant going into the final stretch, they will be the favorite to win the AL East and likely the favorite to advance to the World Series in the AL. Armed with David Price, James Shields, Jeremy Hellickson, Fernando Rodney and the rest of the rotation and bullpen, they have from top to bottom the best pitching in baseball.

Jamal Wilburg is a Featured Columnist for Bleacher Report.

Like him on Facebook, follow him on Twitter @JWilburg or visit his website www.JamalWilburg.com.