What Are the Braves' Chances to Pass the Nationals and Win the NL East?

At the start of play on August 13, the Atlanta Braves sat just 4.5 games behind the first-place Washington Nationals. The Braves fell to a red-hot Padres team, while the Nationals pummeled the Giants.

With the Braves' loss and the Nationals' win, the Braves have 47 games to catch and overcome a 5.5-game deficit to win the division.

If the Braves cannot claim the NL East title, their playoff future will be determined by the new wild-card playoff system. Currently two games ahead of the Pirates for the top spot in the wild-card standings, the Braves are only 3.5 games ahead of the Dodgers and Giants, who are now tied within their division. In other words, the Braves are just 3.5 games from being out of the playoffs all together.

Heading down the stretch, the Braves look to avoid a repeat of the 2011 collapse that opened the door for the St. Louis Cardinals to sneak into the wild-card spot for the playoffs. The fact that the Cardinals were able to win the World Series makes last season's collapse that much more painful.

The best way for the Braves to avoid any worry about holding on to a wild-card playoff berth is to just win the division outright. But can they do it?

The Braves Can't Seem to Gain Ground Despite Their Solid Performance

Since the All-Star break, the Braves have an impressive 20-10 record. However, the Nationals are not doing the Braves any favors, having gone 23-10 in that same stretch. Looking farther back, since June 1, the Braves are 38-25, while the Nationals are 43-23.

Ignoring the strength of schedule for both teams' remaining games, if the Nationals played .500 ball over their final 46 games (23-23), the Braves would have to finish their final 47 games with a record of 30-17 to lock up the division. If that scenario were to play out, the Braves would end the season with a 96-66 record, just one game ahead of the Nationals.

With the strength of the Nationals' starting rotation this year, it is doubtful that they will finish the season only winning half of their remaining games. Their 72-44 record for the season is a league-best .621 winning percentage. If the Nationals are able to maintain their current pace and win 62 percent of their remaining games, they would go 28-18, finishing the season with a record of 100-62.

For the Braves to surpass that win total and secure first place in the division, the team would need to finish the season on an incredible run. To reach 101 wins, the Braves would need to go 35-12, winning about three out of every four games.

With as far the Braves fell last year down the stretch, it would be sweet redemption if the Braves could do the opposite this year. Are you ready for the eerie part? The Braves' current record is 66-49, which happens to be the exact record of the 2011 Braves at this time last year.

Remaining Schedule Favors Braves

Going into this final stretch of the season, the Braves' remaining schedule is slightly more favorable than the Washington Nationals. Of the 47 remaining games for the Braves, 31 of them are against teams with sub-.500 winning percentages. The Nationals will get to play 28 games against teams with below-.500 win percentages.

The Braves will play the Phillies, Padres, Mets, Marlins, and Nationals six games each. They have four games remaining against the Rockies and Giants and three games left against the Brewers, Dodgers, and Pirates.

The most crucial games for the Braves over this stretch, if they hope to win the division, are obviously the two series against the Nationals. If the Braves hope to make a solid run at the Nationals, winning four of those six games will put them in a good position to close the gap.

The Nationals' remaining schedule sees them paired up against the Phillies nine times by season's end. They have seven games against the Cardinals left to play. They will see the Mets in six of their contests, Marlins in five, both the Cubs and Brewers in four, Dodgers in three, and the Giants in two.

The fact that the Braves' remaining games are a virtual cakewalk (in regards to the number of games against cellar dwellers), the Braves have a legitimate shot at making an impressive run down the stretch. With the Nationals' only slightly more arduous road to the postseason, the Braves will not have the luxury of other teams doing their dirty work. It will be up to the Braves to perform better than they have all year if they want to take the divisional crown.

The Braves Are Getting Healthy at the Right Time

Tommy Hanson is set to return from the DL and rejoin the Braves' starting rotation. His return puts the Braves in a unique, yet favorable situation. Currently, the Braves have one too many starting pitchers performing well enough to stay in the rotation. Over the next 16 games, the Braves will pitch a six-man rotation until they reach their next off day. When they finally get to that first off day, Gonzalez will make a decision on who the Braves' five-man rotation will consist of for the remainder of the season.

The Braves also get to look forward to the return of Andrelton Simmons. The Braves' smooth-fielding shortstop should be back by month's end. While Paul Janish has done well since his acquisition from the Reds' organization, Simmons' return will be a big boost to the team down the stretch. His hustle, his bat, and his propensity to reach batted balls that ordinarily would be destined for greener pastures will all be needed for the Braves' season-ending surge.

Braves fans can also expect to see a familiar face in the bullpen in the not too distant future as well. Peter Moylan, the Aussie with a knack for generating double plays, has already made it back to Triple-A Gwinnett after his surgery to repair his torn rotator cuff and labrum. His return will be a shot in the arm for one of the game's best bullpens.

While the Braves are returning to full strength, the Nationals have decided they will go through with their plan to shut down Stephen Strasburg in the not too distant future, according to the Nationals' website. Taking one of the game's most dominant pitchers out of the picture can only improve the Braves' chances of catching the division-leading Nationals.

It Should Be a Close Race

Do the Braves have a chance to catch and pass the Nationals before the end of the regular season? Yes. As the Braves proved with last year's collapse, anything is possible in sports.

While it is mathematically possible that the Braves catch and pass the Nationals going down the stretch, it is rather unlikely that it will occur. The unfortunate thing about the whole situation for the Braves is that it isn't their fault that they won't catch the Nationals. The Braves will likely have a very strong performance over their last 47 games, but so will the Nats.

 Washington is currently the best team in baseball. Despite their schedule being slightly more difficult than the Braves', the majority of the Nationals' remaining games are against teams that reside in their division's basement.

With Stephen Strasburg being removed from the rotation in a few weeks, it may be too little too late for the Braves—though the Braves wouldn't mind facing him before he leaves, as they have done rather well against the ace so far in his career. He is 2-3 with a 4.70 ERA and 1.44 WHIP against the Braves.

Short of a surprising collapse by the Nationals, the Braves look like they are destined to be one of the two teams in the wild-card playoff game. As Braves teams in years past have endured, winning the division and having a dominant starting rotation doesn't guarantee you a World Series title, nor does it guarantee you a spot in the NLCS.

Even though I predict that the Braves won't catch the Nationals, I still think the Braves have the make of a team that can surprise the world and take the playoffs by storm. The youthful exuberance that players like Heyward, Freeman, Simmons, Kimbrel, Hanson, and Minor bring to this roster invokes memories of the youngsters back in '91. Their enthusiasm and boundless energy are contagious, so much so that even Chipper seems, well, more chipper. 

Not to be forgotten, it was in that magical '91 season that the Braves made an improbable comeback to steal the division title from the Dodgers by winning 55 of their final 83 games. You could also look back at the '93 season, where the Braves won 51 of their remaining 68 games to beat out the Giants by one game for the division title. 

The Braves have climbed bigger mountains in the past, and a memorable comeback to win the division would fit nicely in the Chipper Jones farewell saga.