8 Reasons a Bold Trade Was Not Needed for Red Sox to Make the Playoffs

For the Boston Red Sox, the 2012 season has been more difficult than any season in recent memory. The Sox have had to deal with injuries, drama, disappointing performances and, above all, more than their fair share of losses.

But somehow, they're not dead yet.

Nothing has gone Boston's way this season, yet the Sox are still alive and kicking with two months of baseball still to play.

They seemed to finally be dead when they got crushed by the New York Yankees in the Bronx last Friday, but they have since won three straight to move back over the .500 mark.

The trade deadline came and went on Tuesday. Typically, this is the time of year that the Red Sox make a big move or two. This year, all they did was acquire Craig Breslow from the Arizona Diamondbacks and send Lars Anderson to the Cleveland Indians.  

In other words, there are no major moves to report. Gordon Edes of ESPNBoston.com hinted that this would be the case on Monday night:

"

Team source: Sox likely not to make a major move before trading deadline

— Gordon Edes (@GordonEdes) July 31, 2012"

And that's fine. The Red Sox didn't need to make a major move.

Here's why.

Note: All stats come from Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.

Offense Can Solve a Lot of Problems, and Boston's Is Coming Along

The one thing the Red Sox have been able to do just fine this season is swing the bat. Boston ranks first in MLB in runs scored, fifth in team batting average and third in team slugging percentage.

The amazing part is that Boston's offense hasn't been at full strength all season.

The Red Sox started the season without Carl Crawford. Then Jacoby Ellsbury got hurt. Eventually, Dustin Pedroia got hurt. All the while, Adrian Gonzalez was struggling to hit for power. 

It was up to David Ortiz to carry Boston's offense, and he more than lived up to expectations in that regard. But as soon as Ellsbury and Crawford were both back in Boston's lineup and Gonzalez was starting to hit for a little power, Ortiz got hurt.

So, as we prepare to enter August, we have still yet to see a Boston offense featuring healthy and productive versions of Ellsbury, Crawford, Pedroia, Gonzalez and Ortiz.

It won't be long before we do. The first four are all accounted for, and the latest news from the Boston Herald makes it sound like Big Papi won't be out for much longer. It's reasonable to expect Boston's offense to be at full strength by the middle of August at the latest.

The Red Sox will have a much larger room for error when their offense is finally at full strength. On any given night, they'll be able to explode for a ton of runs. That will take a lot of pressure off the club's pitching staff.

And let's face it, Boston pitchers need as much help as they can get.

Dustin Pedroia Finally Looks Healthy

When Dustin Pedroia is healthy, he's one of the best players in the game. He proved that when he won the AL MVP in 2008, and again in 2011 when he finished with the fourth-highest WAR in all of baseball, according to FanGraphs.

Staying healthy has been a struggle for Pedroia this season, as he's been slowed by a series of thumb injuries that have robbed him of both playing time and power at the plate.

It looks like he's finally over these problems.

Pedroia hit six home runs in his first 72 games this season. He's hit three home runs in Boston's last five games and has driven in a total of six runs in the club's last seven games.

Granted, home runs aren't a huge part of Pedroia's game, but what this recent power surge indicates is that he's capable of driving the ball again. That's something he had a lot of trouble doing when he was dealing with his various thumb issues.

The Red Sox are at their best when Pedroia is healthy and productive. He's a textbook example of a spark plug. 

It looks like the Red Sox finally have their spark plug back, and not a moment too soon.

Andrew Bailey Is on the Comeback Trail

Boston's bullpen is not a problem at the moment. After a brutal start, Red Sox relievers have settled down and currently hold a 3.19 ERA. That's good for seventh in all of baseball.

A good thing could get even better. The Red Sox have acquired a solid left-handed reliever in Craig Breslow, and the word around the campfire is that Andrew Bailey will soon be in the mix as well.

Bailey has yet to pitch this season after undergoing thumb surgery in early April, but Gordon Edes reported this week that Bailey is very close to starting a rehab assignment.

When the Red Sox acquired Bailey from the Oakland A's this offseason, the plan was to use him as a closer. That option is probably off the table now given the good work Alfredo Aceves has done closing games, but Bailey could easily step in and be the club's primary eighth-inning setup man.

That role has been up for grabs all season. If Bailey proves to be a reliable eighth-inning setup man, Boston's bullpen will get a lot deeper. They'll be able to cover innings 7-9 with ease, which means that the Sox would be in good shape if they have a lead after six innings.

This is yet another dynamic that would take pressure off of Boston's starting rotation.

Faith Is Needed in Jon Lester

Yes, Jon Lester has been bad this season.

Really bad.

It's part of the reason why the Red Sox were linked to so many starting pitchers in the weeks leading up to the deadline.

For a pitcher of Lester's caliber, a 5-8 record and a 5.49 ERA just doesn't cut it. It's also hard to ignore that his struggles date back to last September, when he went 1-3 with a 5.40 ERA.

At this point, there's only so much one can rationalize Lester's struggles. He was carrying a FIP in the mid-3.00s for much of the season, which suggested he was dealing with a lot of bad luck. But now, FanGraphs has his FIP at 4.30—a number that reflects how poorly he has pitched.

But it's not a stuff problem. Lester still has above-average stuff, and concerns about his velocity are much ado about nothing seeing as how he's throwing just as hard this season as he was in 2011.

His problem is a confidence problem. Lester has appeared unsure of himself on the mound, and he's had a tendency to crumble when opponents start to mount rallies.

He may have turned a corner in his most recent start against the New York Yankees. He wasn't dominant, but Lester was able to limit the Bombers to four earned runs in six innings, giving up only four hits in the process with six strikeouts.

In all, not a bad confidence-building outing. All Lester has to do now is use it.

If he does, he'll go back to being one of the top lefty starters in baseball. And if that's how things pan out, nobody will be complaining about the organization's inability to land a starting pitcher at the deadline.

Same Goes for Josh Beckett

Josh Beckett is in the exact same boat as Jon Lester.

Through 17 starts, Beckett has a record of 5-9 and an ERA of 4.57. Opponents are hitting .256 off him after hitting just .207 off him in 2011.

Like Lester, Beckett struggled during Boston's collapse in 2011, going 1-2 with a 5.48 ERA. Those struggles have carried over.

There are legitimate concerns regarding Beckett's stuff. His velocity is down, and hitters no longer seem fooled by his cutter, which he started throwing a lot more frequently in 2011. He's having trouble missing bats, which is evident is his measly 6.81 K/9.

The bright side? According to FanGraphs, Beckett's FIP this season is 3.53. Last season, his FIP was 3.57.

In other words, Beckett is pitching pretty much the same way he did in 2011, when he finished with a 2.89 ERA. His stuff is waning, but he's also had to deal with bad luck.

You'll know this if you happened to watch Beckett's last start against the Texas Rangers. He gave up nine hits and four earned runs, but only two of those hits went for extra bases, and the Rangers scored runs on a squeeze play and on a wild pitch.

Translation: He actually pitched pretty well.

If Beckett's luck comes around, all the rumors that suggested he was going to be dealt at the deadline will be quickly forgotten.

The Good News: Clay Buchholz Is an Ace

In a perfect world, both Jon Lester and Josh Beckett will make like Clay Buchholz in the final two months of the season.

This is to say that they'll put their struggles behind them and pitch like aces. That's exactly what Buchholz has managed to do over the last couple months.

Through his first six starts, Buchholz had an ERA over 9.00. In his last 12 starts, he has an ERA of 3.04. His ERA since the start of June is well under 3.00.

Buchholz has settled into a groove in his last three starts, logging 23 innings and allowing just four earned runs. The Red Sox have won all three games.

The numbers say Buchholz is Boston's ace, but he proved it in a whole new way on Monday night against the Detroit Tigers. He gave up a leadoff home run and faced all sorts of trouble in the first two innings, but he held the Tigers to two runs and then gave the Red Sox six more quality innings. The only other run Detroit scored was unearned.

Red Sox starters have tended to wilt in pressure situations this season. Buchholz didn't fall prey to that tendency on Monday, and he hasn't been falling prey to that tendency for some time now.

Needless to say, this bodes well for the Red Sox.

Wild Card Deficit Not Insurmountable

Bobby Valentine raised a lot of eyebrows when he said the other day, via ESPNNewYork.com, that the New York Yankees might end up missing the playoffs.

OK, sure. Whatever, Bobby.

The Yankees aren't missing out on a playoff berth, nor are they going to lose their grip on the AL East. Their lead has been dwindling in recent days, but that doesn't change the fact that the Bombers are without a doubt the strongest team in the division.

For the Red Sox, the AL East has been a lost cause for weeks. They need to accept that.

The wild card is Boston's ticket to the playoffs, and the good news for them is that a wild card berth is still very much within reach.

Presently, the Red Sox are just four games off the pace in the wild card hunt. They're chasing two very good teams in the Oakland A's and Los Angeles Angels, but none of the three teams ahead of them in the wild card race are noticeably better teams. 

The best hope for the Red Sox is that the A's will come back down to earth, which is bound to happen. They're playing great baseball, but no team can maintain an .826 winning percentage for very long. Especially not a team as young and as inexperienced as the A's.

Beyond that, all the Red Sox can do is handle their own business.

And that brings us to our final point.

The Club's Fabled Hot Streak Is Still out There

For the past couple months, Red Sox players, coaches and management types have been insisting that a hot streak was just around the corner, that it was just a matter of time before the club put it all together and started stringing wins together.

To date, this hasn't happened yet. Boston has been taking one step forward and two steps back all season.

There are good reasons for this. The club's pitching has been a mess all season. They've had to deal with more injuries than any team in baseball. They've been frustratingly inconsistent at Fenway Park.

This could continue for the rest of the season, but that's unlikely given the amount of talent the Red Sox have on their roster. At some point, this team should get hot.

You can call it a matter of hope if you want. Realistically, I'd say it's more a matter of time.

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