Did the Portland Blazers Overpay for Roy Hibbert?

Lost in much of the Dwight Howard noise is that Portland made Roy Hibbert a large offer—an offer so large that Indiana probably has to refuse. On the heels of his breakout season, the (for now) Pacer center was handed a four year, $58 million deal, should he choose to take it. Though Hibbert is a decent player, I believe that Portland will come to regret the acquisition. 

In the reductive sense, you probably shouldn't max out a seven-footer who lost in six games to the Boshless Heat. That's simplistic, but it's a good way to frame the debate against giving Hibbert that much money. 

It's a good way to frame the debate because the Heat just won an NBA title without a conventional, plodding center. Their Finals opponent, Oklahoma City, also lacks a star center. This isn't surprising considering the NBA's new direction.

The 2002 legalization of zone defense opened up the floor. Speed got more important at the expense of size. Pundits complain about how the league lacks good big men, but they're ignoring how these bigs have been legislated out of the game. 

A post player like Roy Hibbert can't simply catch and back his man down, unhindered. His predecessors could. In the 1990's, big men would only have to worry about an obvious double team, one that required the second defender return to the exact location from whence he came.

Today's zoned-up league allows defenses to shift in such a way as to deny entry passes to post players. Guys like Hibbert aren't dropping like flies because they lack skill; they're dying out because they lack the opportunity to flaunt such skills.

The zone legalization has led to the rise of "stretch" power forwards, bigs who can open up the floor with the threat of a jumper.

This brings us back to Portland's curious decision. The Blazers already have one of these aforementioned "stretch 4s" in LaMarcus Aldridge, and they can easily play LMA at the five spot. Perhaps Aldridge isn't a shotblocker, but neither is Chris Bosh. The Heat did just fine shifting Bosh to the center. Before Bosh returned to the playoffs, Boston was giving Miami hell with (the non shotblocking) Kevin Garnett at the five.

Adding Hibbert seems almost superfluous considering how Portland feature one of the league's best frontcourt options. Their true weakness is in the backcourt, where they have near-literally no one to get Aldridge or Hibbert the ball. The Blazers are banking on Damian Lillard to be the facilitator, but he played last season in the Big Sky conference. It's a lot to ask from a rookie, and there's no backup plan should Lillard falter in the pros.

It would have made more sense for Portland to try for Steve Nash, or even Jason Terry. Roy Hibbert struggles to create his own shot and the Blazers lack the means to conjure shots for him. More importantly, Hibbert's game may be more a vestige of the past than the beginning of a sunnier future in Portland.