San Francisco 49ers: 4 Things to Expect from Alex Smith in 2012

After a breakthrough 2011 campaign, there seems to be a mixed bag of expectations regarding QB Alex Smith as he approaches his eighth season in the NFL.

Many believe—myself included—the best is yet to come for the oft-criticized former first overall selection.

Others, however, will claim head coach Jim Harbaugh has already helped Smith maximize his "limited" potential and the seven-year veteran's days by the Bay will come to an end sooner than later.

Not so fast.

I firmly believe great things are on the horizon for Smith as he continues to find his niche inside Harbaugh's West Coast offense, and the 49ers' new-and-improved receiving corps will only help him shed the popular "game manager" label while doing away with the doubters once and for all.

Barring an injury, this will be the year of Alex Smith.

Without further delay, here are four things you can count on from Smith throughout the 2012 season.

Grab a refreshment and buckle up—this is going to be a lengthy ride. I assure you I'll do my best to hold your interest throughout.

Bond with Harbaugh Will Grow Even Stronger

Before the 49ers jumped into the Peyton Manning sweepstakes this offseason, the ever-strengthening bond between Smith and Harbaugh seemed to be the talk of the town.

Despite rumblings that Harbaugh and the 49ers' pursuit of Manning may have tarnished this relationship, these two are going to be quite alright.

In fact, the bond between these two will grow to new heights in 2012. 

And if you're one of those fans clamoring for "QB of the future" Colin Kaepernick—or even the newly added Josh Johnson—to take the reins this season or the next, forget about it.

Go ahead, criticize me all you'd like. The comment section is anxiously awaiting your opinion.

Plain and simple, this is Smith's team. Despite his checkered past, he earned that right with a breakthrough performance in 2011 and will continue to prove his worth as we move forward in 49er land.

You may disagree with my opinion, but I don't believe many will choose to argue with the call-it-how-I-see-it head coach. 

And if Harbaugh says he believes Smith put forth a Pro Bowl-worthy campaign in 2011, you'd better believe he thinks he can do it again in 2012. And the year after that. And the year after that, provided he stays healthy.

Fact is, Smith is still only 28 years old. And he just had a birthday on May 7.

Happy belated, Alex.

Clearly his surrounding cast is continuing to improve, as is he.

Harbaugh provided Smith and the entire 49er organization with a desperately needed stable environment in 2011. He endorsed Smith shortly after he became the 49ers' head coach and gave him yet another chance to succeed in SF when seemingly no one else would have.

And you can make light of Smith's newly signed three-year, $24 million deal and its lack of guarantees if you so choose, but the fact is, just because the 49ers didn't dole out a boatload of money to Smith doesn't mean they don't trust him.

No matter how strong a bond Harbaugh or GM Trent Baalke have with any one player, they're not going to stray away from the team's best interest. 

All circumstance considered, Smith has only proven his worth for one NFL season. However, many fail to remember he's only been healthy for two entire seasons, and missed one (2008) entirely.

Smith was actually making some progress in 2006 with then-offensive coordinator Norv Turner running the show. He was then derailed by two shoulder surgeries, constant training camp battles and faced learning a new offense each and every season.

Finally healthy and equipped with a coach who once again knows what the heck he's doing (I love Mike Singletary, but the man simply cannot handle the offensive side of the ball at this time in his coaching career), Smith is thriving.

Enjoy it, because this bond between Smith and Harbaugh is going to last awhile. 

In my opinion—and probably Harbaugh's, too—only a severe injury, an unworldly training camp by Kaepernick or Johnson, or old age (pertaining to Smith, of course; Harbaugh is going to be coaching forever) is going to change that.

Confidence Will Carry over from 2011

Perhaps the main factor in Smith's progression last season was an amount of confidence never before seen from the seven-year veteran.

Plain and simple, he's a warrior. He's endured the injuries. The boatloads of criticism. The chants for any other QB holding a clipboard to replace him. The revolving door of coaches and playbooks they bring with them. The constant need to compete for your NFL career despite being the No. 1 pick in the 2005 draft.

Now, he only cares about one thing.

Winning football games. 

Harbaugh put his faith in Smith, and Smith ran with it.

Literally.

In 2011, he posted not only career-best numbers as a passer, but additionally as a rusher.

Some choose to remember him taking "unnecessary" sacks all season, failing to move through his progressions with efficiency and not wanting to risk costly turnovers.

What sticks out the most was Smith's much-improved pocket presence, reacting decisively as the pocket broke down and moving the chains with his feet to extend drives at crucial times.

I should point out that the 49ers were largely ineffective on third downs throughout the season, but the loss of Josh Morgan in Week 4 and injury to Ted Ginn, Jr. in the NFC divisional matchup up didn't exactly help the cause.

Plus, what do you think all of the free agency and NFL draft additions were for? To help open the field and actually provide Smith with open receivers on a consistent basis, duh.

And don't forget Michael Crabtree is finally healthy and ready for a full offseason to whip up some chemistry with his starting QB.

Smith's confidence often came to the forefront in those crucial moments in 2011, from the beginning of the season to its conclusion.

Here are some examples to refresh your memory a bit.

Week 1 vs. Seahawks: Smith runs a bootleg to the right for a one-yard TD run to give Niners' a 16-0 lead with 0:12 left before halftime.

Week 4 @ Eagles: Smith plays a marvelous second half of football, featuring two third-quarter TD passes capped off by a game-winning fourth-quarter drive that ended with a Frank Gore TD and a 24-23 upset win over the supposed "Dream Team."

Week 6 @ Lions: Facing a 4th-and-goal with under two minutes remaining, Smith fires a game-winning strike to TE Delanie Walker from six yards out to hand the Lions their first loss of the season.

Week 10 vs. Giants: Beginning the fourth quarter trailing 13-12, Smith fires a 30-yard TD strike to TE Vernon Davis, followed by a successful two-point conversion pass to WR Michael Crabtree, which gave the Niners a 20-13 lead and eventual 27-20 victory.

Week 16 @ Seahawks: Down 17-16 late in the fourth, Smith drove the Niners' O 40 yards on six plays in a raucous environment, leading to a David Akers field goal and a 19-17 win over the divisional rival Seahawks. 

2012 Postseason: We all know what happened here, and nobody can argue the confidence and leadership exerted by Smith and his fellow 49ers as the franchise finished its greatest season since claiming a fifth Lombardi Trophy in 1994.

A Statistical Renaissance of Sorts

Despite posting career numbers in 2011, Smith's lack of TD's (17) and yardage (3,144) in comparison to the NFL's elite signal-callers once again left something to be desired from a statistical standpoint.

If Smith can stay healthy again this coming season, even the hastiest of fans will struggle to find complaints about his production.

One of the few issues keeping the Niners from their sixth Lombardi Trophy in 2011 was the lack of a true playmaker on offense. Not to say Davis and Gore don't qualify, but a more well-rounded crew is required for them to remain healthy and effective.

Trent Baalke and Co. have a remarkable knack for strengthening the roster's weaknesses, and acted accordingly early and often this offseason.

First, it was the addition of first ballot Hall of Fame WR Randy Moss to the receiving corps. Soon after, the 49ers purchased the rights via free agency of former New York Giant and Super Bowl XLVI hero Mario Manningham to strengthen it even more.

As if adding Moss and Manningham to complement Davis and Crabtree in the passing game wasn't enough, Baalke used the 49ers first two picks in this year's NFL draft to bring two more explosive skill players to the squad—both of which have the potential of contributing immediately.

WR A.J. Jenkins of Illinois (30th overall, first round) and RB LaMichael James of Oregon (61st overall, second round) were names the 49er faithful weren't expecting to hear on draft weekend, but upon further evaluation of their skill sets, I'm not hearing many complaints about these selections now.

I know Smith has no qualms, and judging by his unquestioned work ethic and offseason dedication (Camp Alex in 2011), I'm confident he'll make good on gaining chemistry with the added weaponry this summer.

And as the regular season comes to a close, I have no doubt his statistics will reflect that. 

Here are the lofty—although justifiable—expectations I have for Smith and his production in 2012.

Games Played: 16

Completions: 341

Attempts: 524

Completion %: 65.1

Yards: 3,867

AVG:  7.38 (per attempt)

TD's: 29

INT's: 11

Reasoning

We all know the 49ers love to establish the running game. However, even in 2011, Harbaugh orchestrated a more balanced attack than many are led to believe.

With 498 runs to 451 pass attempts a year ago, Harbaugh and offensive coordinator Greg Roman weren't afraid to turn to the passing game, especially late in the season as the offensive unit grew comfortable with the new schemes.

This year, with improved chemistry and added weaponry, Harbaugh will unleash the hopefully improved throwing arm of Smith more than ever before.

Smith's 445 attempts in 2011 were a career high, but you can expect that number to increase even more in 2012 (hence my projected 524 attempts). 

Alex continues to show an unmatched dedication to improving, with Camp Alex in the 2011 offseason and his visit with Tom House earlier this spring.

House, a former MLB pitcher whose immense knowledge of arm mechanics is not limited to just baseball (once counseled Nolan Ryan and Randy Johnson), has worked with Tom Brady, Carson Palmer and Drew Brees as well.

House noted that Smith has already once shown he can throw with perfect mechanics, but altered his throwing motion for the worse when compensating for back-to-back surgeries on his throwing shoulder.

It's nice to see Smith get a chance to work on the basics instead of being forced to digest a brand new offense for yet another year.

In fact, a photo on the 49ers Instagram shows proof that Smith is no longer locking his front leg when he steps to throw—an issue that many feel has affected his accuracy when throwing downfield.

I don't mean to say it's impossible he reverts back to old habits during the course of the season, but he seems intent on becoming the Pro Bowl QB Harbaugh believes him to be.

Believe me when I say good things are coming for Smith and the 49ers in 2012.

Smith Will Lead the Niners' Best Offense Since 2003

In 2003, the Niners' offense ranked fifth overall in total yards with 5,687. 

Since that season, San Fran has not finished higher than 23rd overall once, and even ranked dead last twice, in 2005 and 2007.

Expect that to change in 2012.

Of course, it's far from realistic to assume the new-and-improved unit can match the fifth overall ranking it earned in 2003—there are far too many pass-happy teams in today's NFL to consider that a possibility.

Featuring what is arguably the league's top defense, that won't be a requirement.

However, don't at all surprised to see the Niners rack up as many yards (5,687) this coming season.

San Francisco faces five of the NFL's top-10 offenses from a year ago, including the top three overall in the Saints, Patriots and Packers, respectively.

Harbaugh unleashed some of his offensive ingenuity in 2011, but I expect him to go full bore in 2012. The 49ers now have a coach who can run an offense masterfully when provided with players that best utilize the schemes he and Roman run.

The added weapons on offense, combined with improved chemistry and an unmatched team confidence, will allow the Niners' O to soar in 2012 and beyond, making the Red and Gold the most well-rounded squad the NFL has to offer.

The 49ers have some tough challenges awaiting them, but I'm fully confident Smith will rise to the occasion, and you can expect the rest of the team to follow suit.