Boston Red Sox: 10 Keys to Winning the First Yankees-Red Sox Rivalry Series

While a Red Sox-Yankees series feels more significant than any other regular-season matchup, the teams’ first clash of the year always takes on an added measure of importance. It’s the rivals’ first chance to size each other up and truly see where they stand early on in the race for the AL East title.

This year there is added historical significance, as today the Red Sox will be hosting a lavish ceremony to mark the 100th anniversary of the first game at Fenway Park. The Sox and Yankees will be dressed in garish throwback uniforms to commemorate the occasion, and a parade of living Red Sox legends will be brought through to honor the franchise’s rich history.

Ultimately, though, the focus will become about the baseball being played on the field in 2012.

After being swept by the Texas Rangers and falling to 4-8 on the season, the Red Sox have dug themselves a huge hole to start the year. At 7-6, the Yankees have fared only slightly better.

Both teams are struggling on the mound, particularly with their starters; before the games Thursday night, the Yankees' starting staff ERA of 5.77 put them at 27th of 30 MLB teams, with the Sox tied for last in baseball at a robust mark of 5.97. The Sox will send out Clay Buchholz, Felix Doubront and Daniel Bard for this three-game set, and the Yankees will counter with Ivan Nova, Freddy Garcia and CC Sabathia.

The offenses have both been solid overall, if a little erratic. Prior to the Yankees’ 7-6 win over the Twins on Thursday, both teams’ bats had produced similar totals of runs (62 for the Yankees to 59 for the Sox), hits (113 to 107) and slugging percentage (.433 to .430) in the same number of games (12).

Based on the way these teams have been playing lately, fans can expect a high-scoring series. If the Red Sox want to win at least two of these three games, here are 10 things that they’ll need to accomplish:

Strong Starting Pitching

While it is clearly important to get good starting pitching to win, this is more of an indictment of the Sox's bullpen. In short, they have been horrible all season.

How horrible? They rank 29th in MLB in ERA (6.63), last in home runs allowed (nine) and last in total bases allowed (78). The potent Yankees lineup will hope to feast on this group by first attacking the Sox's starters.

Buchholz, Doubront and Bard have all had their ups and downs early on this season, but the Sox will need 5.0 innings or more out of each of them if they want to have any hope of keeping these games close. The less fans see of manager Bobby Valentine walking out to the mound, the better.

Struggling Hitters Must Step Up

Part of the Boston offense’s erratic start can be attributed to several key contributors struggling at the plate. Kevin Youkilis (.238 OBP), Jarrod Saltalamacchia (.148 OBP) and Darnell McDonald (.083 batting average) have all gotten off to slow starts. For the Sox to reverse their poor April showing, these three will need to improve.

All three have shown that they can be productive players. Youkilis is a three-time All-Star, and both McDonald and Saltalamacchia made solid contributions to the Sox's offense last season. They didn’t just lose their ability between last September and now.

Consistent production from the lineup is going to be difficult for the Sox this year, as the lineup has become significantly more top heavy than it has in the past. A good series against the Yankees for the Sox’s less-heralded hitters will start to restore the balance that has been the team’s trademark over the last decade.

Control Derek Jeter

After a brutal first three months of the 2011 season that saw the Yankee captain hit just .260 before going down with an injury, many fans thought Derek Jeter was finished as a top-of-the-order hitter. However, after a scintillating final two months that saw Jeter hit .349, it appears reports of his demise were premature.

Jeter has carried that momentum into the 2012 season, and the Yankees’ 38-year-old shortstop is off to one of the best starts of his illustrious career. Through the first 12 games of this season he was hitting .389 with four home runs and a whopping 1.089 OPS, and his 21 hits were second in the AL to only Josh Hamilton.

As the man who hits atop the lineup, Jeter sets the tone for the entire offense. While it may be a tall order given how well he is seeing the ball, the Red Sox's pitchers will need to him slow down if they want to stop the Yankees.

Shorten the Game

Although the Sox's bullpen has been terrible for the most part, they have found two reliable contributors in Vicente Padilla and closer Alfredo Aceves. While this is certainly not the combination fans thought they’d want to see in the eighth and ninth innings this year, it is the best duo the Sox have.

Since his meltdown in Detroit, Aceves has thrown 3.0 perfect innings out of the Sox's bullpen, striking out four and recording two saves. Padilla has been strong as well, already tossing 7.0 innings out of the bullpen and only allowing multiple runs in a mop-up appearance in Tuesday’s 18-3 loss to Texas.

Because so few of the other relievers have shown they can be relied upon, the Sox will be counting on this duo to shorten games and keep the Yankees at bay in the late innings.

Keep CC Sabathia and Freddy Garcia Struggling

CC Sabathia and Freddy Garcia both had excellent seasons in 2011. Sabathia won 19 games and was an All-Star, while Garcia reestablished himself with a 3.62 ERA over his 26 starts.

However, both pitchers—especially Sabathia­—struggled against the Red Sox. Garcia’s 22 hits allowed in 19.0 innings pitched was no great shakes, but it was minor compared to the 1-4 record and 6.39 ERA Sabathia compiled against Boston.

With both pitchers off to a poor start in 2012 (Sabathia is sporting a 5.59 ERA, Garcia a 6.97), the Sox will look to keep these two talented hurlers on the losing track. If they can get to both pitchers and force the Yankees to tax their bullpen early, it will go a long way towards ensuring a series win.

Adrian Gonzalez and David Ortiz Combine for 2-Plus Home Runs

The Sox's middle-of-the-order duo of David Ortiz and Adrian Gonzalez has combined for three home runs so far this season, the same total they had after the same number of games in 2011. Capped by a five-run barrage against the Rays last Saturday, the Sox have shown good team power this season with 12 total dingers.

While it’s true that Ortiz is still getting extra-base hits (his seven doubles lead MLB) and Gonzalez has been solid all around, these two are the Sox’s best pure power hitters. These two have struggled to hit homers since they participated in last year’s home run derby, hitting significantly more before the break (36) than since (23).

Home runs, particularly at home, change the entire tenor of a game like no other play. If the powerful Ortiz-Gonzalez combo can rediscover their form of early 2011, they’ll finally be able to build some momentum in 2012.

Force Rivera to Blow a Save

Without question, Mariano Rivera is the greatest closer in MLB history. However, for whatever reason, he has struggled against the Red Sox. Mind you, “struggle” is a relative term given that we’re talking about a man with 605 saves and a 2.22 career ERA.

Nevertheless, his career 1.237 WHIP and 2.82 ERA against the Sox are among his highest rates against teams he faces on a regular basis. Of Rivera’s 73 career regular-season blown saves, 14 (19 percent) have come against the Red Sox.

And then there’s the 2004 ALCS to consider.

Because of this past success, the Sox and their fans have confidence against Rivera, however irrational it may be. If the Sox can get to Rivera in one of the games in this series, it will restore some of the life to the Fenway faithful and would give the Sox some positive momentum to build upon.

Keep Ryan Sweeney’s Average over .400

Perhaps the most pleasant surprise of this young season for the Sox has been Ryan Sweeney. A mere afterthought in the trade that brought Andrew Bailey to Boston, Sweeney has filled in more than ably for the injured Carl Crawford and secured his starting spot even once the left fielder returns.

Sweeney has been crushing the ball this season, sporting a tidy .424 average in his 10 appearances (eight starts), with his 1.109 OPS the highest among Sox regulars. Sweeney has been sitting against left-handed pitching, so we should only see him make two starts in this series.

His timely hitting has been a spark plug for this offense, and to succeed against the Yankees the Sox will need Sweeney to keep it going. If he can record three hits in his two starts, he would not only keep his average above the .400 mark, but he would also help jump-start the erratic Sox offense.

Exploit Rusty Yankees Outfielders

When the Yankees placed Brett Gardner on the disabled list on Thursday, they lost someone who can make tremendous plays with his glove. As the everyday left fielder for the Yankees, the fleet-footed Gardner allowed the club to keep veteran lugs like Andruw Jones and Raul Ibañez in the DH role.

Now with Gardner out, the Yankees will turn to Jones and Ibañez to provide functional defense in left field. Their limited range will also place a strain on center fielder Curtis Granderson, who will be forced to cover more ground than he is accustomed to.

With several strong right-handed hitters as well as lefties with good opposite-field power, the Sox should be able to test the Yankees' left fielders. If the Sox players look to take extra bases and challenge the outfielders’ range, they likely will be rewarded.

Make the Yankees' Bullpen Throw over 12.0 Innings

The Yankees’ bullpen has been their strength this season. Prior to their game on Thursday night, New York relievers were sporting a 1.99 ERA on the year (tops in MLB) while allowing a minuscule .194 batting average and .597 OPS compared with .307 and .909 for the starters.

The best way for the Red Sox to score on the Yankees' relievers, then, would be to challenge their depth. It will be critical for Boston to work the pitch counts of the Yankee starters, limiting their innings and forcing the Yankees to turn to their bullpen early.

If the Sox can limit Yankee starters to 15.0 combined innings or fewer in the series, they will maximize their chances of success against the Bombers’ tough relief corps. The deeper the starters go in the game, the smaller the Sox’s chances of winning become.