Five Reasons the Boston Red Sox Will Struggle to Finish Third in AL East

The fans who call themselves "Red Sox Nation" aren't going to like this, but it is going to take more than a front office and managerial makeover for this team to make a serious run at the American League East title this season.

The Red Sox should be thrilled, in fact, that baseball has added an additional wild-card team that will essentially have a play-in game to earn a spot in the division series.

For that reason alone, the Red Sox should be in the mix for the playoffs in 2012.

But with the lingering fallout from the September collapse last season and significant questions about their pitching, the Red Sox will be hard pressed to keep up with the Tampa Bay Rays and New York Yankees in the East Division, as well as the Detroit Tigers, Texas Rangers and Los Angeles in the rest of the AL.

The Red Sox lineup is not as imposing as it was when the Curse of the Bambino was finally broken when they swept the St. Louis Cardinals to win the 2004 World Series and won again in 2007 sweeping the Colorado Rockies.

The bullpen is in disarray and the back end of the rotation is unproven. With John Lackey and Bobby Jenks likely out of the picture in 2012, the Red Sox are actually counting on the return of Daisuke Matsuzaka from the disabled list in June.

New manager Bobby Valentine has inherited a team that is hurting physically and psychologically and he will have to be at his motivational and strategic best to keep the Red Sox in contention, especially early on with Carl Crawford also on the disabled list. 

Let's take a closer look at why the Red Sox will struggle to finish third in the AL East this season.

Baseball's Version of the Hangover

Say what you will about starting with a clean slate in 2012.

Dismiss the September of discontent as just one of those things that spiraled out of control.

The facts are, however, that the Red Sox will be living with the memory of their late-season collapse in 2011 until they clinch a playoff berth this season.

A slow start will be interpreted as a continuation of their downfall.

But even if the Red Sox are sailing along in July and August, fans and the media will be wondering whether history is going to repeat itself with another September folding act.

Let's look at recent history.

The Mets squandered a seven-game lead with 17 games to play in 2007. Although they bounced back to hold on to first place for most of the 2008 season, the Mets folded again in September, blowing a 3.5-game lead with 17 games to play.

They have yet to recover.

And in the misery-loves-company department, the Atlanta Braves had an epic September collapse in 2011, blowing an 8.5-game wild-card lead in the final three weeks of the season.

Playing in a big media market and under intense scrutiny, the Red Sox will be constantly reminded about the year of fried chicken and beer.

This is one hangover that can't be remedied with aspirin or hair of the dog.

The only way for the Red Sox to write off 2011 as a bad memory and not an ongoing saga is to stage their own dog pile in September.

And that is not getting any easier in the American League.   

Will the Red Sox Have to Stage a Valentine Massacre?

It's hard to believe that Terry Francona was made a scapegoat for the Red Sox collapse last September after leading them to a pair of World Series titles.

In some ways, success has made the Red Sox ownership respond a lot like the late George Steinbrenner did in New York with the Evil Empire.

Francona was considered a player's manager, which is a kiss of death when players begin taking advantage of their manager's easygoing style.

In some ways, baseball players are still boys and occasionally must be sent to their room or given a timeout.

The question is whether Bobby Valentine is still a little boy himself and is ill-suited to manage in Boston.

Whether it is baseball or another professional sport, managers who are fired are customarily replaced by a completely opposite personality.

Disciplinarians are replaced by more laid-back types and vice-versa.

But Valentine might be in a category of his own. He is fiery and personable, capable of being a player's manager and also a disciplinarian.

He also enjoys the limelight, which is not always appreciated by players.

It is one thing for a manager to divert the focus from his players to himself when times are tough, but Valentine is not shy about taking credit, either.

He is pleasantly outspoken and prone to some unusual behavior, like wearing a disguise and returning to the Mets dugout when he was thrown out of a game during his tenure in New York.

And although he is from Connecticut, Valentine's temperament is more suited for New York than Boston.

So he put his foot down and said there will be no fried chicken and beer consumed in the Red Sox clubhouse this season.

Remember, though, that in this franchise, there has always been a country club atmosphere, even during the years when the Curse of the Bambino was in full bloom.

If you want gritty, you think New York; Boston is more aristocratic in style.

Bobby V is a terrific manager. He knows the game inside and out and managed to fit in like a native in Japan.

But unless Valentine can tone down the rhetoric and fade somewhat into the background, he will wear out his welcome pretty quickly in Boston.

That will bear watching as the season unfolds.

Red Sox Looking for a Few Good Pen Pals

In an era of specialization in pitching, the Red Sox find themselves with a gaping hole in the bullpen.

Setup man and former White Sox closer Bobby Jenks was sidelined by a pulmonary embolism in midseason and then had two back surgeries in December.

Closer Jonathan Paplebon left via free agency for the Philadelphia Phillies.

The Red Sox traded for Andrew Bailey, the Oakland A's closer, to fill Papelbon's role and now Bailey is out for the first half of the season with a thumb injury.

In the first weekend of the season, Alfredo Aceves and Mark Melancon failed in their first save opportunities.

That has the Red Sox wondering whether Daniel Bard, a mainstay in the bullpen in 2011, should return to the pen as a closer instead of staying in the starting rotation.

So far, management has not pushed the panic button. In an interview on the MLB radio network, general manager Ben Cherington said that Bard deserves a chance to start and that it is too early to panic about the bullpen.

Cherington might want to avoid slowing Bard's development as the Yankees have Joba Chamberlain and Phil Hughes—they've been unable to decide whether they are starters or relievers.

Even when Bailey returns, there will be questions about how he will adapt to a pressure-filled role in a more frenzied market than Oakland.

And although he has been a two-time All-Star, Bailey is injury-prone and raises doubts about his long-term durability.

Unless the guys in the bullpen step up, the Red Sox may be in the market with other contenders for a reliever to keep their playoff hopes alive.

Can Red Sox Still Drive Opposing Pitchers Batty?

In recent years, Red Sox pitchers never lacked run support.

That might not be the case this season.

The core four of Jacoby Ellsbury, Dustin Pedroia, David Ortiz and Adrian Gonzalez is formidable, but Kevin Youkilis is off to a slow start and the hitting falls off sharply from there.

There is no Manny Ramirez, Jason Varitek, Mike Lowell, Johnny Damon, J.D. Drew or Jason Bay adding a punch to the lineup.

The Red Sox will hope that Ryan Sweeney, Darnell McDonald, Jarrod Saltalamacchia and Cody Ross can provide enough offense to keep opposing pitchers honest.

Then, if Carl Crawford can return from the disabled list and regain the form that made him a coveted free agent when he was in Tampa, and if Youkilis regains his stroke, run production will increase accordingly.

In either case, however, don't count on the Red Sox hitting as many home runs as in the past.

With a shaky starting rotation and unsettled bullpen, however, the pressure is on the Red Sox to rely on their bats to stay in the race.

Is it asking too much?

Josh Beckett, Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz Have a Lot to Prove

Ask the media covering the Red Sox and the fans what single factor contributed the most to the 2011 meltdown and the answer is starting pitching.

John Lackey, a high-priced free-agent acquisition, had a deplorable year. Clay Buchholz was injured, and Josh Beckett and Jon Lester failed to be the stoppers the team needed when the losing started in September.

Highlighting the failure of the starters was the revelation that Beckett, Lester and Lackey often spent games they weren't pitching eating fried chicken, drinking beer and playing video games in the clubhouse.

This didn't cost the Red Sox any games, because none of the starters did this on days that they pitched. It certainly hurt camaraderie, though, and showed that manager Terry Francona was unwilling to do anything about it.

Have any lessons been learned from last season? And even if they have, are Beckett, Lester and Buchholz still capable of being the big three in the Boston rotation?

The key is Beckett, who is still only 31 years old.

Lost in the late-season demise was the fact that he finished 13-7 with a 2.09 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 30 starts.

He may have lost a little zip on his fastball over the years, but he is far from a washed-up pitcher or one who is beginning his decline.

A lot depends on how dedicated Beckett is to being the staff leader and stopper this season and preventing any long losing streaks.

He was pounded by the Detroit Tigers in his first start, so red flags are already visible in Boston.

The 28-year-old Lester was outstanding for most of last season and finished 15-9, but he also failed in the stretch run, going 1-3 with a 5.40 ERA in his last six starts.

Buchholz, in the No. 3 slot, is one of the keys to depth of the Red Sox rotation. He was a respectable 6-3 with a 3.48 ERA in 14 starts when a stress fracture in his back cost him the rest of the 2011 season.

He was shelled by the Tigers in his first start this season, which no doubt will not fill management with confidence about the starting pitching.

With Felix Doubront and Daniel Bard as question marks at the back end of the rotation, it is imperative that Buchholz regain his form and give the Red Sox three formidable starters.

If any of the three has a poor season, it may cost the Red Sox a playoff berth. 

Take Me to Your Leader

General managers can make only so many moves.

Managers can hold only so many closed-door meetings.

Ultimately, it was up to the players to prevent the collapse that evoked so many bad memories of the old days in 2011.

It's up to the players to keep the Red Sox from being also-rans in 2012.

The question is, who will step up and lead this team?

Who will walk into the clubhouse and order teammates to get back in the dugout and show some team unity?

The answer is that the Red Sox don't have anyone with the personality or cache to help this team police itself.

David Ortiz doesn't mind being the genial Big Papi, but he has no stomach for leadership. He told ESPN there was too much drama last season and he chose to divorce himself from it.

Perhaps Dustin Pedroia can become the face of this team. He is beginning his sixth full season in Boston and has proven himself on the field with his effort and performance. He is a career .305 hitter and even at 5'8", he hit 21 home runs last season.

Pedroia is the second baseman, which puts him in the middle of the action every inning.

Does he want that responsibility, though? Would his teammates listen when he speaks?

Jason Varitek was the last Red Sox captain. Perhaps management should name Pedroia captain to show their confidence in him.

If he were the official captain, he might command more respect than just speaking up as just another teammate.

One thing is clear: Unless some of these issues are addressed, the Red Sox will be on the outside looking at the playoffs in October.

Or struggling to finish third in the AL East and looking at win-or-go-home playoff game.